A stalled-out frontal system draped across the Mid-Atlantic region will keep it unsettled around here through tomorrow with the threat of additional scattered showers and thunderstorms. A secondary front will arrive later tomorrow and it should clear the way for a pretty decent weekend with a comfortably warm air mass headed to the northeastern part of the nation. High pressure will be in control this weekend resulting in sunshine on both days to go along with those reasonable temperatures for this time of year.
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An active weather pattern continues at mid-week in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions with persistent northwesterly flow aloft on the outer perimeter of a strong high pressure system that is centered over the southern states. This “ring of fire” on the periphery of the high pressure system continues to feature batches of showers and thunderstorms rotating around in its northeastern quadrant from northwest-to-southeast. The next upstream batch of showers and thunderstorms is now pushing through the Ohio Valley and its remnants will enhance the chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms later today and tonight likely in the region from DC-to-Philly.
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Humidity is high here today and it will contribute to unsettled conditions during the next few days with a stalled-out frontal system nearby. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely in the Mid-Atlantic region through the remainder of the work week with the best chance later today south of the PA/MD border including right here in the DC metro region. Any shower or thunderstorm later today and tonight can produce some heavy rainfall amounts in a short period of time…watch out for localized flooding conditions. High pressure will resume control of the weather around here this weekend with some sunshine expected both days along with very reasonable temperatures for this time of year.
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Large scale northwesterly flow in the upper part of the atmosphere this time of year in the Mid-Atlantic region often results in severe weather threats and there is just such a possibility from this afternoon into tonight. The zone with the best chance of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity later today will likely be from the DC metro region/Delmarva Peninsula on the southern end to central/eastern Pennsylvania on the northern end as the remnants of an overnight “mesoscale convective system (MCS) appear to be headed right towards that region. Northwesterly flow aloft in this part of the nation usually is the result of strong high pressure ridging to the southwest of here and embedded shortwaves often move in a northwest-to-southeast fashion in the outer perimeter of this kind of system.
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The combination of an approaching cold front and an upstream batch of showers and thunderstorms will keep it very unsettled around here during the afternoon and nighttime hours. Any thunderstorm that develops later today or tonight can be on the strong-to-severe side with some heavy rainfall and gusty winds. This same frontal system will meander just to the south of here through the remainder of the week maintaining the unsettled conditions as several waves of low pressure move along the boundary zone. High pressure may take back control of the weather later in the weekend.
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The holiday weekend will start off on the unsettled side with a slow-moving frontal system in the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday. This system is likely to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms as we begin the long weekend and some of the storms can be on the strong side. A shower or thunderstorm is still possible on Sunday and on Monday - the 4th of July - but the chances will be lower than during the beginning stages of the weekend. Looking ahead, a northwest flow aloft could result in another round of severe weather for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by the middle of next week from a system that is headed for the Upper Midwest.
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The heat and humidity will build over the next couple of days with temperatures by tomorrow afternoon climbing into the low-to-mid 90’s. The holiday weekend will start off on the unsettled side on Saturday with a slow-moving frontal system in the Mid-Atlantic region. This system is likely to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms as we begin the long weekend and some of the storms can be on the strong. A shower or thunderstorm is still possible on Sunday and on Monday - the 4th of July - but the chances will be less than during the beginning stages of the weekend.
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After a comfortable day on Tuesday, the heat and humidity will begin to slowly build up over the next couple of days and by the time we get to Friday afternoon, we’ll be uncomfortably humid with temperatures likely reaching the middle 90’s. The 4th of July holiday weekend will start off on the unsettled side on Saturday with a slow-moving frontal system in the Mid-Atlantic region and it could very well remain somewhat unsettled on Sunday as well. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will be pretty high on Saturday afternoon and evening and the rain threat could linger into Sunday. One final note, there is a whiff of wildfire smoke noticeable this morning in the Mid-Atlantic region that originated in the southern part of Canada and traveled here on a northwest-to-southeast wind flow in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.
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A cold front passed through the region late yesterday and today will be a comfortable day in the Mid-Atlantic region with pleasant temperatures and much lower humidity values than yesterday. It turns much warmer and humid again by later in the week with highs at 90+ degrees by Thursday afternoon and Friday. The weekend could at least start off somewhat unsettled with a frontal system nearby on Saturday and possible scattered showers and thunderstorms.
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It’ll be quite humid today, but not as warm as yesterday, and there is a good chance for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the region. This front will usher in another comfortable air mass for the Mid-Atlantic region setting us up for a nice Tuesday and a still pretty comfortably warm day at mid-week. Temperatures will then climb back to the 90’s later in the week and the holiday weekend is looking somewhat unsettled from this vantage point as a frontal system likely stalls in the region. As a result of the nearby frontal system, there may be scattered showers and thunderstorms on both Saturday and Sunday.
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