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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

11:20 AM | *Active weather pattern to bring significant rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region, snow and severe weather to other parts of the country*

Paul Dorian

Today's soaking rain and thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region appears to be just the opening round in what is looking like a very active weather pattern for much of the nation in the foreseeable future. The next ten days or so will feature wave-after-wave traveling across the country in a general west-to-east fashion and each one can produce snow over the Rockies and in New England, severe weather in the central and southern states, and significant rain in the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, its been somewhat dry in recent weeks in much of the south-central and eastern US and those are the regions that are most likely to get pounded with significant rainfall in this unfolding active weather pattern.

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7:00 AM | *The next threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorms comes on Thursday*

Paul Dorian

It’ll still be a bit unsettled today with patchy fog this monring and the chance of another shower or two.  High pressure will then edge into the region on Wednesday and it'll turn out to be a pretty nice day.  However, another disturbance will head our way on Thursday and it will bring back the threat for showers and thunderstorms.  In fact, the likely atmospheric setup on Thursday - a strong upper-level trough in the Southern Plains and a warm surge of humid air from the Gulf of Mexico into the region - could result in severe weather across northern Alabama. This active weather pattern will likely bring us another round of showers and possible strong thunderstorms early next week.

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7:00 AM | *Quite unsettled this week with multiple shots at showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms*

Paul Dorian

Quite unsettled this week as a series of upper-level waves associated with a deep trough head east from the Southern Plains and into our area.  As a result, showers and thunderstorms will impact the region later today, tonight and into the day on Tuesday and some of the storms can be on the strong-to-severe side as a frontal system slides to the east from the middle of the country.  On Wednesday, high pressure will edge into the region, but the stalled out front can still bring us some more shower and thunderstorm activity on Thursday and Friday and again, there will be a chance for severe weather. 

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7:00 AM | **Strong-to-severe thunderstorm threat on Saturday and perhaps a repeat performance early next week**

Paul Dorian

High pressure will push eastward today into the western Atlantic and this will lead to a southwesterly flow of air which in our area will turn us warmer and more humid.  In addition, a vigorous upper-level low will spawn the formation of a strong storm over the Central Plains and this will increase the chances around here for shower and thunderstorm activity during the PM hours on Saturday.  In fact, the overall atmospheric setup that appears to be unfolding with a strong surge of warm air and developing low pressure may lead to the formation of strong-to-severe thunderstorms across northern Alabama later tomorrow and the threat for showers and storms may last right into the early part of next week - including the threat for more severe weather.

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7:00 AM | *Strong-to-severe thunderstorm threat on Saturday and perhaps another one next week*

Paul Dorian

High pressure that is now in control of our weather will push eastward by later tomorrow and this will lead to a southwesterly flow of air which will turn us warmer and more humid.  In addition, a vigorous upper-level low will spawn the formation of a strong storm over the Central Plains by the weekend and this will increase the chances around here for some shower and thunderstorm activity.  In fact, the overall atmospheric setup that appears to be unfolding for Saturday featuring a significant warm surge from the Gulf of Mexico with approaching low pressure may lead to the formation of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity across northern Alabama.  Looking ahead, there very well could be another strong-to-severe thunderstorm threat around here during the early-to-middle part of next week. 

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7:00 AM | Cooler today following frontal passage with AM showers likely in parts of the area

Paul Dorian

A frontal system passed through the region last night and ushered in a cooler air mass for the mid-week time period.  After highs near 80 degrees on Tuesday, temperatures today should do no better than the low-to-mid 60’s with possible showers and it should drop into the 40’s in the overnight hours. High pressure that should control our weather during the next couple of days and will push eastward by the end of the week.  This shift in position of the high pressure system will lead to a southwesterly flow of warmer and more humid air which will lead to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.  

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7:00 AM | Chance of showers and thunderstorms increases later today as weakening frontal system approaches

Paul Dorian

A frontal system associated with an upper-level trough will bring us an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the day and this evening.  The chance for severe weather is minimal; however, there can be an isolated strong thunderstorm as this front passes through the region.  High temperatures will approach the 80 degree mark this afternoon, but drop back to the 60’s on Wednesday and Thursday.

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7:00 AM | Showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight/early Saturday as cold front arrives

Paul Dorian

Another cold front will advance towards the Tennessee Valley today and there can be some shower and isolated thunderstorm activity associated with its approach late today and especially during the night. The best dynamics associated with this frontal system will stay well to our north likely eliminating the chances for any kind of strong or severe thunderstorm activity. The front clears through the area by Saturday afternoon. 

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7:00 AM | Very cold start to the day, but a warming trend comes soon...next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes Friday night/Saturday

Paul Dorian

It'll be quite a cold start to the day with temperatures well down in the 20's across the region.  High pressure will press eastward over the next couple of days and we'll experience a warming trend. Another cold front will advance towards the Tennessee Valley on Friday and there can be some shower and thunderstorm activity associated with its arrival on Friday night and Saturday.

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