11:45 AM (MON) | *Heavy rain, strong winds in Mid-Atl/NE US late Thursday - just ahead of strong cold front…quick temperature drop early Friday with snow showers…energetic pattern continues next week*

December 21, 2020Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern continues this week in the central and eastern US with the main weather event being the late week passage of a powerful Arctic cold frontal system. This front will result in a heavy rain event for the Mid-Atlantic/NE US from late Thursday into Thursday night which will be accompanied by strong winds, mild conditions and a possible thunderstorm. With snow cover still in place in many areas north of the PA/MD border, the upcoming heavy rain event may lead to localized flooding conditions.

Behind the front, temperatures will drop sharply potentially leading to a quick ice-up in some spots and inland areas from West Virginia to central/western NY will likely see accumulating snow. In fact, there can even be some small accumulations of snow early Friday in the I-95 corridor on the heels of the frontal passage; especially, in some of the northern and western suburbs. The much colder air that arrives on Christmas Day (Friday) will stick around into the upcoming weekend and next week promises to be quite energetic with the potential of multiple storm threats to monitor.

12:45 PM (Fri.) | *Volatile weather pattern to continue next week and beyond…cold blast may arrive in the eastern US by Christmas Day...late week Arctic front could be accompanied by heavy rain/snow*

December 18, 2020Paul Dorian

The first major winter storm of the season for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US has just passed and the overall weather pattern is likely to remain quite volatile through the remainder of the month. There will be numerous strong waves of energy in coming days that will head into the eastern states. In addition, all signs point to a continuation of cold air outbreaks for the central and eastern US over the next couple of weeks. In fact, perhaps the coldest air mass of the season so far could push into the central US by the middle of next week and arrive in the eastern states by Christmas Day (Friday). There is also a chance that heavy rain and accumulating snow will accompany the arrival of the cold blast late next week in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.

12:50 PM | *****Two storm threats for next week with the greatest potential impact coming at mid-week*****

December 11, 2020Paul Dorian

The interesting and active weather pattern of recent weeks will continue into at least the middle of the month with two storm threats on the table for next week in the central and eastern US. The first storm threat for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US will come during the early part of next week and an even bigger threat comes at mid-week with the greatest potential impact. In fact, the mid-week storm could turn out to be a major snowstorm for a large part of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. In the short term, the weather turns milder in much of the eastern half of the nation, but a colder air mass is going to filter into the northeastern quadrant during the early part of next week following the late weekend (uneventful) passage of a cold front.

Teleconnection indices such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are supporting the idea of “high-latitude blocking” to get well-established by the middle of next week which, in turn, supports the idea for strong high pressure to build across southeastern Canada – always a key factor to the prospects of getting accumulating snowfall in the I-95 corridor. In this time period, two separate waves of energy will cross the southern states and then move northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline. With a cold air source building to the north across the southeastern part of Canada by the middle of next week, this type of setup could result in significant accumulating snow for at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.

12:30 PM | **Storm threats loom for next week with the biggest potential impact at mid-week**

December 10, 2020Paul Dorian

The interesting and active weather pattern of recent weeks will continue into at least the middle of the month with multiple storm threats on the table for next week in the central and eastern US. The first storm threat for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US will come during the early part of next week and perhaps the bigger threat comes at mid-week. The weather turns milder over the next few days in much of the eastern half of the nation, but a colder air mass is likely to arrive in the northeastern quadrant during the early part of next week following the late weekend passage of a cold front. Teleconnection indices such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are supporting the idea of “high-latitude blocking” to get established by the middle of next week which, in turn, supports the idea for high pressure to build across southeastern Canada. At this same time, two separate waves of energy are likely to cross the southern states and move northeastward towards the eastern seaboard. With a cold air source building to the north across southeastern part of Canada, this type of pattern could result in accumulating snow in at least part of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.