There will be occasional showers and thunderstorms today across northern Alabama and any storm can reach strong-to-severe levels. The threat for severe weather today and tonight will extend all the way across the Gulf States from Louisiana to Florida. The unsettled pattern will continue through the weekend as well with additional chances of showers and thunderstorms in the Tennessee Valley.
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There can be a severe weather outbreak later today and tonight across Texas and Oklahoma and this threat will shift east on Thursday to include the region from Louisiana-to-Mississippi-to-Alabama. The unsettled pattern will continue through the late week and weekend as well with multiple additional chances of showers and thunderstorms.
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Cold air outbreaks continue to work their way from Canada into the US as we wind down the month of April and it appears they will continue to do so right through the early part of May. As long as this kind of pattern holds, there will be an enhanced threat of severe weather outbreaks in the US and an increased chance for the formation of strong storm systems. In fact, more severe weather is possible on Wednesday in places like Texas and Oklahoma as cold, dry air advances from the west and clashes with entrenched warm, humid air across the south-central US. This severe weather threat will then shift eastward to Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama by Thursday afternoon.
Looking ahead, there are signs for a soaking rain event in the eastern US from Friday into Saturday and then a second and perhaps stronger system may form later in the weekend and produce more significant rain in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. This second storm system may feature some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity of its own in its warm sector from late Sunday into Monday and perhaps even some wet snow and/or ice on its cold side in some of the higher-elevation, interior spots of the northeastern US…just as we begin the month of May.
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This week will turn out to be quite unsettled with the chance of showers increasing later tonight and on Wednesday and remaining on the table for the rest of the week. One low pressure system will impact the region on Wednesday and then another one by later Thursday. The active weather pattern looks like it’ll continue through the weekend with another round of showers and thunderstorms possible both Saturday and Sunday.
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Tropical activity is likely to be nearly normal this season in the Atlantic Basin with competing factors in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. In a normal Atlantic Basin tropical season, there are about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 of those actually attain “major” classification status (i.e., category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale).
The major factors involved with this year’s tropical outlook include the development of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean which generally acts to suppress activity in the Atlantic Basin due to increased wind shear. The development of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures comes after three years of La Nina conditions. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Ocean features plenty of warmer-than-normal water which is generally favorable for the development and/or intensification of tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Indeed, the warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature pattern in the western Atlantic Ocean makes the east coast somewhat more vulnerable than normal to what I like to call “home-grown” tropical hits during this upcoming tropical season.
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Following the passage of a weekend cold front, the new work week start off on the cool side of normal with this afternoon holding in the middle 60’s. Moisture levels will be on the rise by later tomorrow and the chance for showers will increase as well and the threat of rain will continue through the remainder of the week.
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A strong surface cold front will approach the region later today and enhance the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the Tennessee Valley. A few of the storms can reach strong-to-severe levels, but a lack of high moisture content should be somewhat of a limiting factor for severe weather. Following the frontal passage, cooler, drier air with its origins in Canada should push into the area and overnight lows going into early Sunday will be in the low-to-mid 40’s.
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High pressure will stay in control of the weather for another day with breezy and warm conditions across the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures should reach the middle 80’s today and winds can gust up to 25 mph or so. A strong cold front will push into the nation’s mid-section on Friday and its approach will increase chances here for showers and thunderstorms from later tomorrow into Saturday. Temperatures will trend downward following the passage of the cold front with highs on Sunday likely struggling to reach the 60 degree mark.
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High pressure will stay in control of the weather for the next couple of days with breezy and warm conditions across the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures should reach the lower 80’s today and stay there for highs on Thursday afternoon. At the end of the week, a strong cold front will push into the nation’s mid-section and its approach will increase chances here for showers and thunderstorms heading into the weekend.
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High pressure will take control of the weather for the next few days with dry and increasingly warm conditions for the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures will be quite pleasant today and then climb gradually to highs around 80 degrees by Thursday afternoon. At the end of the week, a strong cold front will cross into the nation’s mid-section and its approach will increase chances here for showers and thunderstorms by the weekend.
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