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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Historic Events

12:00 PM | NOAA upgrades its primary computer forecast model

Paul Dorian

The Global Forecast System (GFS) computer forecast model produced by NOAA is the foundation for all of its weather and climate models including those used for hurricane prediction and other high-impact types of weather. The operational version of this forecast model has just undergone a significant upgrade in the never-ending attempt to improve accuracy.  This upgrade is the latest of several model improvements that are to be rolled out by NOAA in the next several months thanks to increased supercomputing power acquired earlier this year.  

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10:00 AM | Weather and the Hindenburg disaster 79 years ago

Paul Dorian

While weather played an important role in the Titanic disaster just over one hundred years ago, it was an even more direct cause of the Hindenburg airship disaster 79 years ago this Friday – at least that is the prevailing belief. On May 6th, 1937, while the German passenger airship LZ 129 Hindenburg was attempting to land at the Lakehurst Naval Air Station in New Jersey, a flame appeared on the outer cover of the rear of the ship. Within 34 seconds, the entire airship was consumed by fire and the golden age of airship travel was over.

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3:20 PM | Anniversary on Friday of "The Sinking of the Titanic" and new theories arise

Paul Dorian

As we approach the 104th anniversary of the sinking of the RMS Titanic (April 15, 1912), I thought I’d revisit the overall weather pattern that played a key role in the tragedy. By studying weather maps and written records from that time period, some definitive conclusions can be drawn about the weather during the trip across the Atlantic, and there are also some interesting new theories. 

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10:00 AM | Weather and the Shuttle Challenger disaster thirty years ago

Paul Dorian

Thursday marks the 30th anniversary of the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster which occurred on January 28, 1986, when the NASA Space Shuttle orbiter Challenger (mission STS-51-L) broke apart 73 seconds into its flight leading to the deaths of its seven crew members.  STS-51-L was the 25th American Space Shuttle Program flight since the program began in 1981. It was also the first mission to have a civilian on board, American teacher Christa McAuliffe. The spacecraft disintegrated over the Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of Cape Canaveral, Florida at 11:39 EST (16:39 UTC).  According to the Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident, weather conditions were likely one of the factors that contributed to the incident. Tests conducted during the subsequent investigation showed that O-rings were much less resilient at lower temperatures, but the extreme cold at the Kennedy Space Center was not the only weather factor involved with this tragedy. 

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8:20 AM | The "Blizzard of 2016" - one of the all-time greats

Paul Dorian

The “Blizzard of 2016” – some preliminary Mid-Atlantic snowfall reports (inches):

1)    BWI Airport, MD -    29.2 (RECORD)
2)    Philly Airport, PA -     22.4 (4th highest)
3)    Dulles Airport, VA -    29.3 (2nd highest)
4)    Central Park, NY -        26.8 (2nd highest)
5)    Harrisburg, PA -        34.0 (RECORD)
6)    Allentown, PA -        31.9 (RECORD)
7)    JFK Airport, NY -        30.5 (RECORD)
8)    LGA Airport, NY -        27.9 (RECORD)
9)    King of Prussia, PA -    26.1
10)    Chantilly, VA -    30.0

Reagan National Airport (DCA) in Washington, D.C. has officially come in with a highly suspicious reading of 17.8 inches and it is being investigated as it looks an underestimate compared to surrounding areas. This is not the first measurement problem at DCA.  Last year, the temperature sensor at DCA was replaced as it was found to have been reporting erroneously high readings for years.  By the way, 17.8 inches would make it the 4th biggest snowstorm ever at DCA.

 

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3:20 PM | Top ten NYC (Central Park) snowstorms

Paul Dorian

1.    Feb 11-12, 2006    26.9”    
2.    Dec 26-27, 1947    25.8
3.    March 12-14, 1888    21.0
4.    Feb 25-26, 2010    20.9
5.    Jan 7-8, 1996    20.2
6.    Dec 26-27, 2010    20.0
7.    Feb 16-17, 2003    19.8
8.    Jan 26-27, 2011    19.0
9.    Jan 22-24, 1935    18.1, March 7-8, 1941 (tie)
10.   Dec 26, 1872    18.0

 

2:30 PM | Weather and the Battle of Trenton December 25-26, 1776

Paul Dorian

Morale was low, hope for winning the war was diminishing, and the cause for independence was fading in December of 1776.  The Continental Army led by George Washington was thinning in numbers after many battles lost to the British.  December began with lots of rain and muddy travel conditions for the men which did not help with their spirits.  After retreating through New Jersey, they set up camp in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania where the army was met with very cold weather that led to plenty of ice on the Delaware River.  All in all, things were not looking good for Washington's army.

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2:20 PM | 40th anniversary of the "Edmund Fitzgerald Storm"

Paul Dorian

Ed-Fitz-IR-satellite-image.gif

[Colorized IR satellite image on November 10, 1975; courtesy University of Wisconsin, NOAA]

Discussion

Overview

Forty years ago on November 10th, 1975, a major storm over the Great Lakes helped to sink the SS Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior and all of its 29 crew members died. When launched on June 7, 1958, it was the largest ship on North America's Great Lakes, and she remains the largest to have sunk there. The Edmund Fitzgerald was in the worst possible location during the worst weather of the ferocious storm. The wind and waves from the west hit the freighter broadside as it tried to flee south to safety in Whitefish Bay. The Edmund Fitzgerald was loaded with about 26,000 tons of taconite pellets on Nov. 9, 1975, at Superior, Wisconsin and was bound for Detroit, Michigan.

The Storm

Storms on the Great Lakes can rival hurricanes in their intensity and the one that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald had sustained winds of 67 mph, gusts up to 86 mph, and waves reported up to 35 feet according to another vessel in the area that survived the storm. On November 8, 1975, a storm was brewing in the center part of the country and it headed northeastward towards the Great Lakes. On November 9 at 7 p.m. the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a gale warning for Lake Superior. The NWS predicted east to northeasterly winds during the night, shifting to NW to N by the afternoon of November 10. At approximately 10:40 p.m., the NWS revised its forecast for eastern Lake Superior to easterly winds becoming southeasterly the morning of the 10th. At about 2:00 am on November 10th the NWS upgraded the gale warning to a storm warning (winds 48-55 knots) with a prediction of "northeast winds 35 to 50 knots becoming northwesterly 28 to 38 knots on Monday, waves 8 to 15 feet".

Ed-Fitz-sfc-map-Nov-10-19751.jpg

[Surface map on November 10, 1975]

Around 2 a.m. on the 10th the captains of the Anderson – a second freighter caught in the storm that survived - and Edmund Fitzgerald discussed the threatening weather and decided to change their route. This safer route would take them northward, toward the coast of Canada. The northern route would protect them from the waves that the storm generated. At 3 am, the winds were reportedly coming from the northeast at 42 knots. The Anderson and Edmund Fitzgerald proceeded together with the Edmund Fitzgerald ahead of the Anderson. They had radio contact and the Anderson's radar located the position of the Edmund Fitzgerald. At 7 am onn the 10th, the intensifying storm passed over Marquette, Michigan and it started to move across Lake Superior.

On the afternoon of November 10th, an important wind shift took place. At 2:45 p.m. the winds had backed to NW and were still strong at 42 knots. Steady winds at 43 knots and waves of up to 12 and 16 feet were reported by the Anderson. At around this time, the Edmund Fitzgerald contacted the Anderson and reported "a fence rail down, two vents lost or damaged and a list” (a list is when a ship leans to one side). A shift of winds to the NW is very important, as this increased the fetch allowing large waves to build. The Edmund Fitzgerald and Anderson were no longer protected by land.

Late on the afternoon of the 10th, the captain of the Edmund Fitzgerald made radio contact with another ship, the Avafor, and reported that they "had a bad list, had lost both radars, and was taking heavy seas over the deck in one of the worst seas he had ever been in." Captain McSorely was a seasoned sailor of the Great Lakes with 44 years of experience and this incredibly was to be his final voyage before retirement. At 7 p.m., the Anderson made radio contact with the Edmund Fitzgerald and had her on their radar. When asked how the Edmund Fitzgerald was making out (around 7:10 pm) they replied "we are holding our own". Shortly afterwards the Edmund Fitzgerald disappeared from the Anderson's radar screen. No distress signals were ever issued. The Anderson reported the missing Edmund Fitzgerald to the U.S. Coast Guard. After conducting a heroic, but futile search of the area for survivors, the Anderson entered into the protection of Whitefish Bay from the stormy Lake Superior in the early hours of November 11. The Edmund Fitzgerald sank in 530 feet of water about 17 miles from Whitefish Bay, near the cities of Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan, and Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario.

Gordon Lightfoot’s song “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald”

The story of the Edmund Fitzgerald was made famous one year later by Canadian songwriter Gordon Lightfoot's song "The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald" (1976, Moose Music, Ltd.). This song was a tribute to the ship wreck and to the men who lost their lives. Some of the lyrics of the song (below) made it sound as though the crew knew they were doomed. In reality, it is believed that the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald was very rapid and it is likely they did not know the seriousness of their condition. Indeed, after the wreck a severely damaged life boat was found and only part of the second. The condition of the lifeboats suggests that no attempts were made to leave the ship.

"...At seven p.m. a main hatchway caved in he said 'fellas it's bin good to know ya' The captain wired in he had water comin' in and the good ship and crew was in peril and later that night when 'is lights went out of sight came the wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald"

More on Great Lakes shipping disasters

Incredibly, in the past 300 years, about 30,000 people have died in 10,000 shipwrecks on the Great Lakes. Other shipping disasters on the Great Lakes, in which weather played a role include: • Nov. 11, 1913: eighteen ships were lost killing 254 people. • Nov. 11-13, 1940: 57 men died when three freighters sank in Lake Michigan. • Nov. 18 1958: 33 men died on Lake Michigan with the sinking of the Carl D. Bradley. • Nov. 29, 1966: Daniel J. Morrell sank in Lake Huron killing the 28 crew members.