Upper-level high pressure will build over the northeast US and the southeastern part of Canada in coming days and this may open the door for tropical activity to closely monitor around here as we head towards the middle of the month. The Atlantic Basin has been quiet in recent weeks, but signs point to a ramp up of activity over the next ten days or so with the build-up of high pressure to the north. In addition, there is a favorable signal from a teleconnection index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation for tropical activity as it is headed into favorable “phasing” for the Atlantic Basin.
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The temperature pattern across the US during the month of July was pretty close-to-normal (+1.1 degrees F) and there was an extended quiet stretch in terms of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, there has not been a single named storm in the tropical Atlantic since “Elsa” which came ashore as a tropical storm in northwestern Florida on July 7th. Several signals point to an end to the quiet phase in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, it is not unusual for tropical activity to pick up during the month of August as sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin continue to climb towards their usual early-to-mid September peak. In addition, the unfolding upper-level height pattern across North America will likely become more favorable for a pick up in tropical activity and an increased threat to the US. Specifically, high pressure ridging will build and intensify in coming days over the Northeast US and southeastern part of Canada – often a precursor to tropical activity that can impact the Gulf of Mexico or the east coast of the US.
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The main players across the country this week will be an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the Northern Rockies/southwestern Canada and an upper-level low over the northeastern US/southeastern Canada. As a result, warmer-than-normal weather will continue across the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest - as was the case for much of July - and it’ll be somewhat cooler-than-normal for much of the week in the eastern US. Locally, the pattern remains quite unsettled for much of Florida with high moisture content and the chance of showers and storms during the next few days. In addition to the high humidity, heat will remain a factor with high temperatures near 90 degrees each of the next several days.
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The main players across the country in coming days will be an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the Northern Rockies/southwestern Canada and an upper-level low over the northeastern US/southeastern Canada. As a result, warmer-than-normal weather will continue to stretch from the Northern Plains to the Pacific Northwest - as was the case for much of the month of July - and it’ll be somewhat cooler-than-normal for much of the period in the northeastern US. Locally, the pattern remains quite unsettled for much of Florida with high moisture content and the chance of showers and storms during the next several days. In addition to the high humidity, heat will remain a factor with high temperatures near 90 degrees each of the next several days.
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The pattern remains quite unsettled for much of Florida with high moisture content and the chance of locally heavy rainfall during the next few days. In addition to the high humidity, heat will be a factor with high temperatures near 90 degrees each of the next several days. High pressure over the western Atlantic is the main culprit for our extended stretch of hot, humid and unsettled weather across the Florida Peninsula.
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The pattern remains quite unsettled for much of Florida with high moisture content and the chance of locally heavy rainfall during the next few days. In addition to the high humidity, heat will be a factor with high temperatures near 90 degrees each of the next several days. High pressure over the western Atlantic is the main culprit for our extended stretch of hot, humid and unsettled weather across the Florida Peninsula.
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A nearby tropical system will enhance moisture and rainfall across much of Florida during the next 24 hours or so and some of rainfall around here can be heavy at times. Our temperatures are likely to reach the 90 degree mark for afternoon highs during the next few days and there will be the continuing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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A nearby tropical system will enhance rainfall across much of Florida during the next 24-48 hours and some of rainfall around here can be heavy at times. Our temperatures are likely to reach the 90 degree mark for afternoon highs during the next few days and there will be a continuing chance of showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere, monsoonal moisture will continue to push into the “Four Corners” region of the Southwest US resulting in additional heavy rainfall for that part of the nation.
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An upper-level ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to produce enough moisture across Florida to allow for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms; especially, during the PM hours. In fact, the chance for rain will actually increase for today, tonight and tomorrow with the approach of a wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere.
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An upper-level ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic will help to produce a southwesterly flow of air into the region with enough moisture to allow for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. In fact, the chance for rain may actually increase on Friday with the approach of a wave of energy aloft. Lingering rain chances will continue this weekend as well across east-central Florida as high pressure gets re-established off the east coast.
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