Signs continue to point to a heavy rain event for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US in the late Sunday/Sunday night time period with strong and potentially damaging winds. In addition, with an eventual shifting of the main surface low pressure system to the east coast, there is a threat for back-end snow and/or ice across interior, higher elevation locations. In fact, this changeover threat across interior sections may actually be increasing as we get closer to event time with the expected storm track now somewhat slightly farther to the south and east. This trend allows for a quicker intrusion of colder air on the tail end of the storm. As it stands now, several inches of snow are possible across upstate New York and interior sections of New England and perhaps some frozen precipitation can make it not too far to the northwest of the I-95 corridor. Elsewhere, this weekend storm system may threaten the Deep South with severe weather including possible tornadic activity in the region from Arkansas/Louisiana to Alabama.
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It appears more and more likely that there will be quite a strong and impactful storm system this weekend which could have an impact on a wide part of the eastern half of the nation. If ingredients come together, this storm system could produce heavy rain along the eastern seaboard with strong and potentially damaging wind gusts, a strip of heavy snow from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and possibly some severe weather in the Deep South. On its heels, a cold air outbreak will encompass much of the eastern half of the country during the first half of next week.
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Arctic air is charging across the Great Lakes today and right toward the Mid-Atlantic region. Winds will increase markedly later today in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor following the passage of a strong cold frontal system. As the Arctic air pushes across the still relatively warm waters of the eastern Great Lakes, lake-effect snows have developed and there will be several inches of accumulation in some of the places just downstream by the middle of the week. There can even be some snow shower and snow squall activity on Tuesday all the way into the I-95 corridor as the Arctic air mass becomes firmly established. In fact, quick small accumulations are on the table in the I-95 corridor which can make for hazardous travel conditions. Temperatures will reach the lowest levels of the season so far late tomorrow night in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and persistent winds will make it feel even colder than the actual air temperatures. A look at some teleconnection indices such as the NAO, AO and MJO suggest this Arctic outbreak will be rather short-lived and indeed, temperatures should moderate noticeably for the late week and weekend.
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After back-to-back-to-back La Nina (colder-than-normal water) winters, El Nino (warmer-than-normal water) has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and it will play an important role in the upcoming winter season across the nation as discussed in the Arcfield Weather 2023-2024 “Winter Outlook”. Two aspects of El Nino are important when it comes to its potential impact on winter weather patterns in the US and they include both its magnitude and location. Evidence continues to mount suggesting this El Nino event will not rival some of the strongest episodes in recent history such as in 2015-2016, 1997-1998 or 1982-1983. Instead, and as outlined in the “Winter Outlook”, it appears this El Nino will be one of moderate strength and will tend to weaken as we progress through the winter season. In terms of the location with respect to the greatest sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, the thought was that an “eastern-based” focus would shift to more of a “central-based” and recent developments suggest this transition may already be getting underway.
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A widespread and impressively cold air mass will cross the nation next week and reach the eastern seaboard in time for Thanksgiving Day (Thursday). A strong storm system will develop out ahead of the incoming cold air mass and it will impact a large part of the nation with rain, snow and wind on the busy travel days of Tuesday and Wednesday.
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The overall weather pattern across the nation is becoming more and more active compared to recent days and it is likely to result in a strong storm system by the middle of next week that impacts a wide area from the Great Lakes and Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. In terms of temperatures, the overall pattern will flip across the nation from today’s widespread warmer-than-normal conditions to below-normal for the last ten days or so of the month of November. In fact, a widespread cold air mass with its origins in northern Canada will sweep across the nation next week from northwest-to-southeast…just in time for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. This is very likely not going to be the last cold blast for the eastern half of the nation as the colder pattern that sets up next week will likely take us to the beginning of December.
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The overall weather pattern has been rather quiet across much of the nation in recent days, but a more active pattern appears to be setting up as we approach the middle of November. In the near term, a strong storm system will slide east across the Gulf of Mexico producing significant rainfall in the region from Louisiana to Florida where it has been quite dry in recent weeks. In addition, California and the rest of west coast will get significant rainfall (low elevations) and snowfall (high elevations) during the second half of the week. In the longer term, there are signs for a strong system by the middle of next week that can have an impact in the eastern states during a busy travel time. In terms of temperatures, this unfolding weather pattern appears to be one that can feature multiple cold air outbreaks across the northern states and this idea is supported by some teleconnection indices such as the MJO and EPO. One such cold air outbreak may very well sweep across the nation later next week…just in time to make for a cold Turkey Day for many.
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A cold air mass is sweeping across the nation as we wind down the month of October and it will reach the eastern states shortly on the heels of a late day strong cold frontal passage. Record low temperatures have been set or threatened in many spots today all the way from California to the nation’s mid-section and numerous record lows are likely to be set with this cold air outbreak during the next few mornings. Looking ahead, many signs point to additional cold air outbreaks from Canada into the US during the next couple of weeks and snow may become an early season threat in many parts of the country where it hasn’t already fallen.
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Accumulating snow is falling today from Montana to the Dakotas and NW Minnesota and the cold air mass in that part of the country is going to spread south and east in coming days. In fact, the transition on the calendar in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from the last few days of October to the first few days of November will be quite dramatic. Record challenging warmth in the northeastern quadrant of the nation will extend into the first half of the weekend and there will be a step down in temperatures early next week so that by early Wednesday morning, temperatures will be at their lowest levels so far this season. The influx of the cold air mass may even lead to some snow or a mix of snow, ice and rain across interior higher-elevation locations by the middle of next week.
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The transition on the calendar from October-to-November will be pretty dramatic across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US from a weather point of view. The latter part of this week will feature record challenging warmth in much of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US where high temperatures of up to 80 degrees are on the table. The weather will change dramatically next week, however, with the influx of a cold air mass that could feature some snow or a mix of snow, ice and rain in the same part of the country that experiences the surge of warmth later this week. Next week’s cold shot promises to be fairly quick – likely a 2-3 day event – as warmer air is likely to surge back to the north and east into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by the first weekend of November.
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