The weather stays on the chilly side in the Mid-Atlantic region into the upcoming weekend, but becomes milder by the time we get to early next week with afternoon highs on Monday, Christmas Day, likely at or above the 50 degree mark in much of the I-95 corridor. By the next Tuesday and Wednesday, the mild weather pattern will likely result in more rain for the area as a low pressure system pulls out of the southern US and heads towards the Great Lakes. By the time we get to the end of the next week and following weekend, important upper-air changes across North America will become more evident and they should lead to colder, more winter-like, conditions in the eastern and southern US as the new year gets underway. An update is given in this posting on the teleconnection index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and a stratospheric warming event that continues to unfold which could impact US temperatures in the month of January.
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The remainder of this week and the upcoming weekend are likely to be seasonably cold-to-slightly below-normal in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US, but much of the rest of the nation should be warmer-than-normal. The return to seasonal cold in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US follows what has been a very mild few days that culminated with a major rainstorm up and down the eastern seaboard. There are signs that the overall pattern will change by later next week that can result in more sustained cold for the eastern and southern states. A look at some teleconnection indices tends to support the notion of a change in the pattern that would favor more colder-than-normal air for the eastern and southern US - and potentially, an increased chance for snow as well.
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Low pressure will slide into the central Gulf of Mexico region by the early part of the weekend and an intensification process will begin there that will soon result in a powerhouse storm system. The intensifying storm system will impact the Florida Peninsula and other parts of the Southeast US on Saturday night and Sunday and then it pushes northward producing rain and wind throughout the eastern states from Sunday into Monday. The rain will be heavy all along the path of the storm and winds are very likely to reach damaging levels; especially, along coastal sections where 60+ mph gusts are possible...power outages are on the table up and down the coast. There will be no cold air around initially in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US when the storm hits; however, cold air will pour in from the northwest on Monday night and Tuesday raising the chance for a transition to some accumulating snow on the back end; especially, in “lake-effect” locations just downstream of Lakes Erie and Huron.
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Low pressure will slide across the southwestern states over the next couple of days and produce some significant snowfall in the higher elevations of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. By the early part Saturday, this system will have moved to the central Gulf of Mexico where intensification will begin to take place. By Saturday night and early Sunday, tropical storm-like conditions will develop across Florida including heavy rainfall and strong winds and other sections of the southeast US as well.
On Sunday, this powerful low pressure system will push northward up along the Atlantic seaboard and heavy rain and strong winds will likely develop in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US later Sunday and continue into the day on Monday. Cold air will be lacking in the northeastern states - at least initially – when the storm is likely to get underway so rain will be the dominate precipitation type at the start. However, a powerful storm system like this sitting near the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US coastline can certainly draw in enough cold air for a changeover to snow from later Monday into Tuesday; primarily, across higher elevation, inland locations from upstate New York to northern New England.
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Low pressure will slide across the southwestern states over the next couple of days and likely produce some significant snowfall in the higher elevations of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. By the weekend, this system will move south and east into the Gulf of Mexico region and begin to intensify. Signs are increasing that at this point the storm will take a turn to the north and east, produce tropical storm-like conditions across Florida including heavy rainfall and strong winds and then likely ride right up near the eastern seaboard with heavy rain and strong winds on the table. Cold air will be lacking in the northeastern states - at least initially – when the storm is likely to hit so rain will be the dominate precipitation type at the start. However, a powerful storm system like this sitting near the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US coastline can certainly draw in enough cold air in this kind of setup for a changeover to snow in higher elevation, inland locations from upstate New York to northern New England.
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Signs continue to point to a heavy rain event for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US in the late Sunday/Sunday night time period with strong and potentially damaging winds. In addition, with an eventual shifting of the main surface low pressure system to the east coast, there is a threat for back-end snow and/or ice across interior, higher elevation locations. In fact, this changeover threat across interior sections may actually be increasing as we get closer to event time with the expected storm track now somewhat slightly farther to the south and east. This trend allows for a quicker intrusion of colder air on the tail end of the storm. As it stands now, several inches of snow are possible across upstate New York and interior sections of New England and perhaps some frozen precipitation can make it not too far to the northwest of the I-95 corridor. Elsewhere, this weekend storm system may threaten the Deep South with severe weather including possible tornadic activity in the region from Arkansas/Louisiana to Alabama.
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It appears more and more likely that there will be quite a strong and impactful storm system this weekend which could have an impact on a wide part of the eastern half of the nation. If ingredients come together, this storm system could produce heavy rain along the eastern seaboard with strong and potentially damaging wind gusts, a strip of heavy snow from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, and possibly some severe weather in the Deep South. On its heels, a cold air outbreak will encompass much of the eastern half of the country during the first half of next week.
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Arctic air is charging across the Great Lakes today and right toward the Mid-Atlantic region. Winds will increase markedly later today in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor following the passage of a strong cold frontal system. As the Arctic air pushes across the still relatively warm waters of the eastern Great Lakes, lake-effect snows have developed and there will be several inches of accumulation in some of the places just downstream by the middle of the week. There can even be some snow shower and snow squall activity on Tuesday all the way into the I-95 corridor as the Arctic air mass becomes firmly established. In fact, quick small accumulations are on the table in the I-95 corridor which can make for hazardous travel conditions. Temperatures will reach the lowest levels of the season so far late tomorrow night in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and persistent winds will make it feel even colder than the actual air temperatures. A look at some teleconnection indices such as the NAO, AO and MJO suggest this Arctic outbreak will be rather short-lived and indeed, temperatures should moderate noticeably for the late week and weekend.
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After back-to-back-to-back La Nina (colder-than-normal water) winters, El Nino (warmer-than-normal water) has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and it will play an important role in the upcoming winter season across the nation as discussed in the Arcfield Weather 2023-2024 “Winter Outlook”. Two aspects of El Nino are important when it comes to its potential impact on winter weather patterns in the US and they include both its magnitude and location. Evidence continues to mount suggesting this El Nino event will not rival some of the strongest episodes in recent history such as in 2015-2016, 1997-1998 or 1982-1983. Instead, and as outlined in the “Winter Outlook”, it appears this El Nino will be one of moderate strength and will tend to weaken as we progress through the winter season. In terms of the location with respect to the greatest sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, the thought was that an “eastern-based” focus would shift to more of a “central-based” and recent developments suggest this transition may already be getting underway.
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A widespread and impressively cold air mass will cross the nation next week and reach the eastern seaboard in time for Thanksgiving Day (Thursday). A strong storm system will develop out ahead of the incoming cold air mass and it will impact a large part of the nation with rain, snow and wind on the busy travel days of Tuesday and Wednesday.
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