A significant storm will impact the region over the next couple of days as it pulls out of the southeastern states and rides up the eastern seaboard. Snow will break out later today across the region, but as milder air is drawn in from off the ocean, there will be a transition tonight from the snow to sleet and freezing rain and ultimately the precipitation should become ordinary rain by late tonight. As the storm pulls away tomorrow night, there is a chance that precipitation changes back to snow or snow showers before ending late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Snowfall estimates before the changeover fall in the 1-3 inch range with the higher amounts in that range to the north and west of the metro area and the lesser amounts near the coastline. Looking ahead, it’ll turn much milder by the weekend.
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After today’s extreme cold, attention will turn to the southeastern US early Monday, President’s Day, as low pressure will organize down there and then ride up in an inland track parallel to the eastern seaboard on Monday night and Tuesday. It appears that this storm will have a lot of moisture available to it and should produce a potpourri of precipitation types in the I-95 corridor ranging from accumulating snow and ice to ordinary rain and some of the rain can be heavy. Despite the expected changeover to plain rain, it looks like a significant buildup of snow and ice will take place on the front end of the storm. Preliminary snowfall estimates for the I-95 corridor are 2-5 inches with higher amounts in that range well to the north and west of the metro regions and lower amounts in the big cities. As far as the cold this morning, Central Park in New York City dropped to -1 degrees which was the coldest there since 1994. Boston plunged to -9 degrees which was the coldest there since 1957. Philly’s low temperature held at 8 above, but most suburbs to the north and west fell to between zero and 5 above this morning.
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Get ready – the next five days will bring us the worst that winter has to offer from accumulating snow tonight to extreme cold and dangerous wind chills this weekend to accumulating snow and ice early next week before a possible transition to plain rain as a major storm pulls up along the eastern seaboard.
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Much colder air moved into the region on Thursday and it’ll stay well below normal today as we close out the work week, but this is nothing compared to what is coming this weekend. Another outbreak of Arctic air will arrive later tonight and this blast will produce some of the lowest temperatures seen in these parts in a long, long time during the upcoming weekend. In addition, this Arctic frontal passage will be accompanied by snow showers and possible heavy snow squalls and perhaps even a period of steady snow. Quick accumulations are likely tonight on the order of a coating to an inch or two given the cold ground-level conditions.
Temperatures this weekend are likely to primarily hold in the teens for highs and low temperatures by early Sunday morning are likely to drop to near the zero degree mark in the NYC metro region. Wind chills will reach dangerous levels of 15 to 25 degrees below zero later tomorrow into Sunday as winds gusting to 40 mph join up with the extreme cold. If New York City actually drops to 0 degrees by early Sunday, it would be the first time since late January 1994 – Philly dropped to 1 above during that same outbreak in 1994. Boston and Providence - aided by some decent snow cover - could approach their all-time low temperature records by Sunday morning.
After the brutally cold weekend, clouds will thicken up quickly on Monday, President’s Day, and there is likely to be snow breaking out here by Monday night. A significant storm will organize near Georgia later Monday and then take an inland track on Tuesday up through the eastern states. The snow is likely to become heavier for awhile Monday night before it transitions to ice and then to rain on Tuesday. It is possible, however, that even with a changeover to plain rain on Tuesday, there is a significant buildup of snow and/or ice during the front end of the storm; especially, in the suburbs to the north and west of NYC. Stay tuned on this one.
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Much colder air moved into the region last night and it’ll stay well below normal right through the day on Friday, but this is nothing compared to what is coming this weekend. Snow showers can break out at any time this afternoon and early evening and anyone of these can produce a quick coating of snow. Another outbreak of Arctic air will arrive tomorrow night into early Saturday and this blast will produce some of the lowest temperatures seen in these parts in a long, long time during the upcoming weekend. In addition, the Arctic frontal passage is likely to be accompanied by snow showers/squalls or even a period of steadier snow and accumulations would be quick given the cold ground-level conditions.
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Snow showers are a threat right into this weekend and anyone of these can put down a quick coating of snow with temperatures well below the freezing mark. Much colder air moved into the region in the overnight hours and winds will pick up today generating very cold wind chill values.
Another outbreak of Arctic air will arrive late tomorrow night/early Saturday morning and this blast could produce some of the lowest temperatures seen in these parts in a long time during the weekend. In fact, temperatures on both weekend days are likely to hold in the teens for highs along with wind chill values that are well below zero. In addition, low temperatures early Sunday morning are likely to drop to near the zero degree mark in the big city metro regions of DC, Philly, and New York City. If NYC actually reaches zero degrees, it’ll be the first time there in 22 years (since 1994). Boston can very well fall to 5 degrees below zero by early Sunday morning.
This Arctic frontal passage late tomorrow night and early Saturday could be accompanied by snow showers and possible snow squalls with quick accumulations possible. After the brutally cold weekend, clouds will increase on Monday, President’s Day, and there is likely to be some accumulating snow by late Monday or Tuesday. It is too early to tell if this system next week rides up the coast or takes an inland track. Even if it were to take an inland track and produces a changeover from snow-to-rain, accumulating snow would still likely take place on the front end of the storm. Following the early-to-mid week storm, a break in the cold pattern is likely and we may have milder weather conditions for a period of five days or so.
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Check the pipes, car batteries and anything else that can be affected by extreme cold because some is on the way for the weekend. Before the main blast of Arctic air arrives for the weekend, it’ll actually take a step down in temperatures later tonight and on Thursday. A cold front will arrive later tonight and it could cause snow shower activity after 9pm or so which could result in a quick small accumulation. Temperatures tomorrow will hold below freezing and it should stay below freezing right through the upcoming weekend. Additional snow showers can fall on Thursday and anyone of these can put down a quick coating of snow.
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One Mid-Atlantic snow event is now winding down, but this wild 7-to-10 day period has a lot further to go in terms of cold and snow. Two big weather stories for the Mid-Atlantic region over the next several days include the arrival of a news-making, bitter cold air mass this weekend that will reach its low point near the zero degree mark by early Sunday morning and then there is a threat for more accumulating snow early next week. Low pressure will slowly pull away from the region today and high pressure will build in for the next couple of days. An Arctic front will blast through the region late Friday night/early Saturday – possibly accompanied by snow showers and snow squalls – and then both weekend days will be absolutely frigid and a strong wind will generate “slap-in-the-face” wind chills for much of the time.
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In the relatively narrow region from north and west of DC to southern PA, some areas picked up as much as 6 inches of snow this morning while others received little or no snow – not an uncommon result with this type of a system that features small-scale banding in its precipitation field. Specifically, there were small-scale bands of heavier snow this morning that stretched from Loudoun (VA) and Montgomery (MD) Counties to the north and west of DC to Lancaster and York Counties in southern PA and in some areas a significant accumulation took place. These snow bands are now making progress to the northeast and should arrive across southeastern PA over the next couple of hours albeit in a slightly weaker state compared to this morning. The accumulating snow is likely to wind down across the DC metro region over the next few hours as the main precipitation field pivots from the southwest to the northeast.
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Low pressure this morning over the Great Lakes region will transfer its energy to a newly forming coastal low which will only slowly move up the coastline. There will be intermittent snow late today and tonight across the NYC metro region with narrow bands of heavy snow likely forming to the northwest of the surface low. The snow is likely to be of the wet, slushy variety with general accumulations on the order of 2-4 inches here by early tomorrow.
Later this week, it’ll turn quite cold and then an even colder Arctic air outbreak will arrive for the weekend and zero degrees is on the table. As the Arctic blast arrives Friday night, there can be some snow shower or snow squall activity as winds pick up noticeably. Looking ahead, another threat for snow is likely early next week – once again falling right around the President’s Day holiday.
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