Hermine has become better organized this morning and could very well reach hurricane status by the time it makes landfall tonight in the Florida Panhandle region (just east of Apalachicola). If indeed it makes landfall as a hurricane, it would end an unprecedented hurricane drought for Florida where they haven’t seen a hurricane of any intensity since Wilma struck in October 2005 (3965 days ago). The latest movement is estimated to be north-northeast at around 12 knots with maximum sustained winds at 65 mph. Its central pressure has dropped significantly in the last several hours down to 29.27 inches. The latest satellite image of Hermine is quite impressive with the more familiar circular pattern setting up with respect to the clouds and convection and an “eye” is trying to form – not good news for Florida.
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All eyes are now on “Hermine” which could be the first hurricane of any intensity to strike Florida since October 2005 (Wilma). The latest winds are clocked at 65 mph and it should make landfall later tonight just east of Apalachicola, Florida. After that, it appears "Hermine" will ride up along the coastline of the SE US and then push off the Mid-Atlantic this weekend near the VA/NC border region. At that point, high pressure to the north will begin to play a role in the direction and movement of this system. It is likely to slow down and spin just off the NJ coastline as a strong storm - perhaps even at hurricane status - by around Sunday. Whether its heavy rain and strong winds back inland at this time is still a question, but coastal locations are likely to experience stormy conditions. The rough timetable for the potential wind and rain here from “Hermine” is late Saturday into early Monday. Stay tuned.
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It has been a long time in the making and still has a long way to go. First, this tropical wave of interest was dubbed “99L” as it slowly moved through the northern Caribbean Sea. Then it became classified as tropical depression (TD) #9 as it slowly continued on a path towards the southern part of the Gulf of Mexico. At 11am, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) has it still officially classified as “TD 9”, but I think it is likely to be classified as a “tropical storm” later today after a visit by hurricane hunter aircraft (would be named Hermine).
TD 9 is likely to undergo intensification over the next 24-36 hours before making landfall along the Florida Panhandle sometime late tomorrow or early tomorrow night. In fact, it is likely that this system will reach hurricane status before making landfall and, if so, this would be the first hurricane of any intensity to reach Florida since October 2005 and that would end an unprecedented streak in the record-keeping era that dates back to the middle 1800’s. Hurricane Wilma came ashore in southwestern Florida during late October of 2005 as a major hurricane and that was not only the last hurricane to hit Florida, but it was also the last major hurricane (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5) to strike U.S. soil in what is another on-going unprecedented streak.
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A strong cold front will approach us from the northwest later today and it’ll give us the best chance in several days for shower and thunderstorm activity tonight and Thursday and some of the rain could be heavy at times. After that, strong high pressure will push in for the late week and weekend with a very comfortable air mass for this time of year. The Labor Day weekend could turn out to be quite nice; however, there is one "fly-in-the-ointment" and that is the tropical system over the Gulf of Mexico. This system will slam into Florida on Thursday - likely as their first hurricane since October 2005 - and then head northeast along the SE US coastline reaching the eastern part of North Carolina by early Saturday. After that, there is an outside chance that strong high pressure to our north prevents this storm from "escaping" into the open Atlantic and all eyes in the Northeast US will have to monitor this closely; especially, along the New England coastline. At a minimum, one can expect rough surf all along the coastline this weekend from all of this tropical activity. Stay tuned.
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The latest GOES-13 satellite image shows a widespread area of deep convection over the Gulf of Mexico with heavy rains continuing over western Cuba where there has been significant flooding. Tropical Depression #9 is likely closing in on "tropical storm" status and it will be investigated this afternoon by NOAA hurricane hunters to better determine its actual current strength. All indications are that intensification will take place over the next couple of days as vertical wind shear over the system decreases. Heavy rain on the order of 6-12" is possible from this system across portions of central and northern Florida later this week.
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A cold front will approach the region late tomorrow and Thursday and it could set off some shower or thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region which has been quite dry in recent days. Following the frontal passage, comfortable weather will return for the rest of the work week and the Labor Day weekend looks quite nice as well. Meanwhile, the tropics are alive and well. One tropical system is closing in on the Carolinas and another is working its way into the Gulf of Mexico. The tropical system in the Gulf could intensity over the next few days and head towards the Gulf coast of Florida as a tropical storm or a hurricane by the latter part of the week.
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A weak cold front will arrive today, but it should not produce any rainfall in the area and skies will be mainly sunny. A stronger front arrives late Wednesday and it could produce some shower and thunderstorms activity in the mid-week period. Following the mid-week frontal passage, very comfortable weather will return for Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile, the tropics are alive and well. One tropical system is closing in on the Carolinas (tropical depression 8) and another is working its way into the Gulf of Mexico (tropical depression 9). The system headed towards the Gulf of Mexico could intensity over the next few days and then move towards the Florida Panhandle region by the latter part of the week.
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A weak cold front will work its way through the region today and it should pass through on the dry side. The last day of the work week will turn out hot and humid, but the humidity levels should drop some later Saturday following the frontal passage. All in all, the weekend looks decent with very warm and rain-free conditions expected. Elsewhere, the news is good on the tropical scene. The tropical system known as 99L has remained disorganized thanks to some wind shear and its passing over the mountainous island of Hispaniola. Eventually, this system could enter the Gulf of Mexico which would likely lead to intensification, but for now it appears the main impact on Florida will just be some heavy rainfall.
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High pressure will build offshore today and a weak cold front will approach from the northwest. This front could set off a shower or thunderstorm at any time between late today and tomorrow evening as it slowly pushes through the region, but most of the time will be rain-free and the weekend looks dry. Meanwhile, the tropics remain active and one tropical system appears to be headed towards Florida and the Gulf of Mexico and it could have an impact there by the latter part of the weekend or the early part of next week. Currently, the system remains somewhat disorganized near the island of Hispaniola which has some mountainous terrain that should prevent any quick intensification.
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High pressure continues to dominate the weather scene today in the Mid-Atlantic region and it’ll stay comfortably warm. A weak cold front approaches later in the week, but it could pass through the region on the dry side. High pressure will follow across the Northeast US for the weekend which is looking quite nice for this time of year. Meanwhile, the tropics are active and there are two systems that bear watching for the next week to ten days. The first system will take a southern route and it could become a major player near Florida and/or the Gulf of Mexico by the early part of next week. In fact, this system has a chance to be the first hurricane to strike the state of Florida since October 2005 which would end their unprecedented hurricane drought. The second system, Gaston, is likely to intensify significantly over the next few days; however, it is also likely to stay out-to-sea.
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