The next week or so could actually end up being the worst stretch of winter all season long for parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. An Arctic front will slowly press through the region late tonight and Friday as low pressure rides along the boundary zone likely producing accumulating snow all the way down into the DC metro region. Rain will develop at the onset during the overnight hours in the DC, Philly, NYC corridor, but then as colder air filters in from the north, there will be a changeover to snow from north-to-south. Snow can continue into the mid-day hours on Friday in the I-95 corridor and there can be a few additional snow showers during the afternoon - perhaps even a heavier snow squall. Arctic air will completely overtake the region tomorrow night and punish us throughout the upcoming weekend with temperatures some 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Yet another storm threatens the I-95 corridor in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame and it could intensify rapidly near the coastline with lots of cold air in place – in other words, big potential.
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There are three different low pressure systems to monitor for the period extending from later tonight into the middle part of next week and accumulating snow is certainly on the table, but perhaps the biggest story of all could be the impressive Arctic blast that is coming for the weekend. Air trajectory maps show that the air coming into the Mid-Atlantic region for the weekend has its origins in the Canadian Arctic where they have experienced some of the coldest March weather in decades. An Arctic front will slide through the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday – accompanied by strengthening low pressure – and its passage will usher in air that will likely be some 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of year.
The low pressure that forms along this Arctic frontal boundary zone later tonight will generate rain at first in the region, but then as colder air filters in from the north, a changeover to snow is likely from north-to-south by early tomorrow. Snow is likely to continue into the mid-day hours and then there can be a few afternoon snow showers - perhaps even a heavier snow squall. Accumulations on the order of 2-4 inches are possible on Friday; primarily, on non-paved surfaces. After Arctic cold air overtakes the area on Friday night and Saturday, the next storm system will be suppressed well to the south - sparing the region of any late weekend snowfall. A third system is likely to develop in the Mid-Atlantic region in the late Monday night or Tuesday time frame and it could intensify rapidly near the coastline with lots of cold air in place - in other words, lots of potential.
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There are three different low pressure systems to monitor for the period extending from tomorrow night into the middle part of next week and accumulating snow is certainly on the table for the I-95 strip from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but perhaps the biggest story of all could be the Arctic blast that is coming for the weekend. “Air trajectory” maps show that the air coming into the Mid-Atlantic region for the weekend has its origins in the Canadian Arctic where they have experienced some of the coldest March weather in decades. An Arctic front will slide through the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday – accompanied by strengthening low pressure – and its passage will usher in air that will likely be some 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of year.
The low pressure that forms along this Arctic frontal boundary zone will generate rain at first in the Mid-Atlantic region, but then as colder air filters in from the north, a changeover to snow is likely early Friday and there can be some grassy accumulations in much of the I-95 corridor. After Arctic cold air pours into the area on Friday night and Saturday, the next storm system will be suppressed well to the south - sparing the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor of any snow. A third system is likely to develop in the Mid-Atlantic region in the late Monday night or Tuesday time frame and it could intensify rapidly near the coastline with lots of cold air to in place.
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Winter is not over yet and there are three threats to monitor in the Mid-Atlantic region for the period from Thursday night through early next week. The first wave of low pressure is likely to arrive late Thursday night with little cold air in place, but it’ll actually turn colder during this event. As a result, this late week system is liable to result in a “rain changing to snow” scenario and some grassy snow accumulations are possible early Friday. After a very cold day on Saturday, a second and stronger system looks like it will take a southern route and the NYC metro region is likely to escape without any impact. Finally, there is an increasing chance that a third and potentially rapidly intensifying storm arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region in the late Monday/Tuesday time period of next week and there should be enough cold air in place for the possibility of snow. Stay tuned.
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Winter is not quite over yet and there are three threats to monitor in the Mid-Atlantic region for the period from Thursday night through early next week The first wave of low pressure is likely to arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region late Thursday night with only marginally cold air in place, but it’ll actually turn colder during this event. As a result, this late week system is liable to result in a “rain changing to snow” scenario and some grassy snow accumulations are possible in the northern and western suburbs of DC, Philly and NYC. A second and stronger system will take a southern route this weekend and it’ll arrive in the eastern US in the Saturday night/Sunday time frame. This system should have plenty of cold air to work with in the I-95 corridor and snow would likely be the dominant precipitation type; however, it may be suppressed so far to the south that much of the I-95 corridor may escape with little, if any, snowfall. Finally, there is a chance that a third system arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region in the late Monday/Tuesday time period of next week and there should be enough cold air in place for the possibility of snow.
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Winter is not over yet and there may be at least a couple of chances for snow in the Mid-Atlantic region later this week and during the upcoming weekend. One of the keys to this unfolding scenario will be a frontal boundary zone that is likely to set up to the south of the Mid-Atlantic region and this will act as a pathway for low pressure systems to ride along. At the same time, strong Arctic high pressure will set up to our north and northwest and this potential combination could lead to an impressive comeback for winter. The first wave of low pressure that could impact the Mid-Atlantic region is likely to ride along the frontal boundary zone and arrive here in the Thursday night/Friday time period; however, this system will not be all that strong and it will have only marginally cold air to work with so the result could be a changeover from rain to snow. Over the weekend, there is potential for a stronger storm and it would likely have colder air to work with as Arctic high pressure will build into SE Canada; however, it is unclear as to how far to the south this storm will track. Currently, the best chance for accumulating snow in the Saturday night/Sunday time period appears to be in the DC metro region and the least chance in New York City. Stay tuned.
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“It ain’t over till it’s over”. Winter is not over yet and there may be at least a couple of chances for accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region later this week and during the upcoming weekend. One of the keys to this unfolding scenario will be a frontal boundary zone that is likely to set up to the south of the Mid-Atlantic region and this will act as a pathway for low pressure systems to ride along. At the same time, strong Arctic high pressure will set up to our north and northwest and this potential combination could lead to an impressive comeback for winter.
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It’ll turn milder early this week as high pressure shifts off the east coast and then the next cold front crosses the region early Wednesday. A secondary cold front will arrive on Wednesday night and it’ll turn progressively colder late in the week. This frontal boundary zone will stall out near here at the end of the week and several disturbances may ride along and with some serious cold air expected just to our north, wintry precipitation could be the result on more than one occasion going forward.
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There have been scattered snow showers in the Mid-Atlantic region this morning ahead of an Arctic frontal system that is now dropping rapidly southeastward from the eastern Great Lakes and right towards the I-95 corridor. Any of these scattered snow showers can produce a quick burst of snow over the next couple of hours; especially, in areas south of the PA/MD border.
In addition, a solid line of snow showers and embedded heavier snow squalls has developed along this Arctic frontal boundary zone and that is a concern for later today (3-6pm) as it reaches the I-95 corridor; especially, in areas north of the PA/MD border from Philly to New York City. There is a good chance that some of the "frontal zone" heavier snow squalls make it all the way across the Appalachian Mountains and into the immediate metro regions of Philly and NYC - and perhaps as far south as northern Maryland. Low-level lapse rates are steep and very supportive of this type of "snow-burst" activity to survive the trek down the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains and into the immediate I-95 corridor. Any burst of heavier snow today can cause a quick reduction in visibility and a coating on grassy surfaces.
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A fast-moving (“clipper”) low pressure system will cross the Mid-Atlantic region today and generate snow showers in the DC, Philly, NYC corridor. There is even the chance for a heavier burst of snow in a snow squall which could produce a quick grassy accumulation in some spots. Once this system passes off the east coast late today, it'll turn windy once again and very cold air for this time of year will flood into the Mid-Atlantic and stick around right through the weekend. In fact, many areas in the NYC metro region will experience low temperatures in the teens over the weekend.
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