One of the ways to monitor the potential for wintertime Arctic air outbreaks in the central and eastern U.S. is to follow what is happening in the stratosphere over the Northern Hemisphere. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are large, rapid temperature rises in the winter polar stratosphere, occurring primarily in the Northern Hemisphere, and these events have been found to set off a chain of events in the atmosphere that ultimately can lead to Arctic air outbreaks for the central and eastern US that drop southward from northern Canada. Indeed, there is a significant stratospheric warming event now unfolding that will soon result in a dominant polar vortex center over North America - somewhat similar to a major SSW event that took place in January 1985. In that particular year, the major SSW event was soon followed by a period of extreme cold in the central and eastern US.
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Low pressure will move from southwest-to-northeast today parallel to Route I-95 and this will allow for some milder air to push in from off the ocean changing any frozen precipitation this morning to plain rain for the afternoon hours. Before the changeover takes place, there can be small snow, ice accumulations on the order of an inch or so with the greatest probability to the north and west of the metro area. After the rain winds down tonight, temperatures will drop well down in the 20’s and black ice can form in the wee hours of the morning on untreated surfaces. Thursday promises to be a cold, breezy and cold day with temperatures struggling to pass the freezing mark.
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The overall weather pattern is not too different from what we saw on Sunday and a combination of snow, ice and rain is headed to the I-95 corridor for Wednesday. Low pressure will slide from southwest-to-northeast on Wednesday just to the northwest of the I-95 corridor and given that track, milder air should push in off the ocean to change any AM frozen precipitation to plain rain for the PM hours. There will likely be some snow accumulation early tomorrow throughout the Philly and NYC metro regions and perhaps a coating in the northern and western suburbs of DC. Black ice is a threat for late tomorrow night/early Thursday as temperatures will drop well below freezing in the overnight hours following the PM rainfall.
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Low pressure will move close by on Wednesday from southwest-to-northeast and a combination of snow, ice and rain is likely once again in the I-95 corridor. Snow could arrive towards morning and continue early tomorrow before a change to a wintry mix and then to rain for the afternoon. An inch or two of snow accumulation is possible before the changeover takes place. Rain winds down tomorrow night and it could end as brief period of freezing rain; watch for black ice late tomorrow night/early Thursday.
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Super Bowl Sunday featured a combination of snow, ice and rain and we may have something somewhat similar to this on Wednesday, but in this case there may be a bit more snow on the front end in areas north of the PA/MD border. Low pressure will move southwest-to-northeast during the day and frozen precipitation is possible at the front end of this event and can’t be ruled out on the back end as well with plain rain likely in between.
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High pressure will build into the region today and it’ll stay in control into mid-week. Temperatures will stay on the cold side with highs both today and Tuesday confined to the 30’s and then attention will turn to our southwest as moisture will be heading our way. Precipitation is likely here on Wednesday and it could be a repeat of Sunday with snow or a wintry mix followed by rain. Cold and dry weather is likely to follow for the latter half of the work week.
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Super Bowl Sunday is, of course, an extra special big deal this year around this part of the nation and lots of people have travel plans and, unfortunately, the weather will be a factor for at least part of the day. Moisture will arrive on Sunday morning and it’ll be cold enough at the lowest levels of the atmosphere for some icing (sleet, freezing rain) to take place; especially, to the north and west of the big cities. The threat for frozen precipitation is greatest in the morning, mid-day and perhaps early afternoon hours with plain rain more likely by late in the day.
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Much colder air will pour into the region today on gusty NW winds following the passage of a late night strong cold front and temperatures are likely to slowly drop through the day from early morning levels. It’ll become bitter cold tonight under mainly clear skies and stay quite cold on Saturday and then attention will turn towards the southwest as moisture will ride northward out of the Gulf of Mexico and begin to head our way. At the onset of this Super Bowl Sunday precipitation event, it should be cold enough for some snow or a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain, but then as milder air pushes in from the southeast, a changeover to all rain is quite likely. This changeover to plain rain will take place from southeast-to-northwest during the day on Sunday and there can be small snow accumulations before the transition completes. Precipitation winds down by early Monday – perhaps with a change back to snow - and then a couple of cold and dry days will precede another rain and/or snow event at mid-week.
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The next couple of weeks promise to be quite active in the Mid-Atlantic region with the likelihood of multiple precipitation events. The first event will take place late today into early tomorrow and it should feature rain changing to snow and there can be a brief burst of heavier snow in the wee hours of the morning as a powerful jet streak pushes overhead. The next precipitation event will take place from Super Bowl Sunday into early Monday and it could include snow or a wintry mix at the onset and then a changeover to rain in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Yet another system is likely to push more precipitation our way by the middle of next week and odds currently favor plain rain for that event.
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There will be an influx of milder air today ahead of an approaching cold front and temperatures should make it well into the 40’s this afternoon. Low pressure will form along this advancing frontal boundary zone and rain showers are likely to arrive later this afternoon and continue into the evening hours. As colder air pushes in later tonight, the rain is likely to change to snow before ending with a coating to an inch possible by morning and there can be ice pellets mixed in during the transition. Following the passage of the cold front, it’ll turn quite cold tomorrow and stay cold on Saturday and then snow and/or rain will threaten the NYC metro region on Super Bowl Sunday. The rain/snow line will be close to the immediate I-95 corridor and a possible scenario is snow at the onset and perhaps at the back end and rain in between.
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