Abnormally strong upper-level ridging continues to dominate the scene in the Northeast US and Upper Midwest and the resultant hot, humid weather around here will continue through the work week. One change, however, is that here will be an increasing shot at scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next few days and rain will be quite likely on Friday as a cool front arrives. Given the excessive humidity in the area, any rain that falls can be heavy at times. The center of this high-level ridging will retrograde westward by later this week and become centered over the interior western US. As a result of that change in positioning, the flow of air in the upper atmosphere around here will become northwesterly and this will allow for the cool frontal passage as we head into the weekend.
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Abnormally strong upper-level ridging continues to dominate the scene in the Northeast US and Great Lakes as we begin the new work week and the resultant hot weather around here will continue through the week. The center of this high-level ridging will retrograde westward over the next few days and become centered over the interior western US by the end of the week. As a result of that change in positioning, the flow of air in the upper atmosphere around here will become northwesterly by the end of the week and this will likely allow for a cool frontal passage as we head into the weekend. This end-of-week cool frontal passage should break the back of what is likely to end up being the worst stretch of heat and humidity in the Northeast US all summer long.
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Upper-level ridging will expand and intensify over the Mid-Atlantic region during the next few days and temperatures will respond by climbing to 90 degrees this afternoon and likely well into the 90’s on Saturday, Sunday and Monday - perhaps even a flirtation with the 100 degree mark in some spots. The heat will be accompanied by uncomfortably high humidity levels and there is little, if any, chance of relief from rainfall this weekend which will be nowhere to be found. Indeed, the best place for relief during the next several days of high heat and humidity will be at the beaches where a sea breeze is quite likely to form on a daily basis reducing coastal temperatures considerably compared to inland locations. This high heat and humidity will likely continue for about a week and there will likely be some record highs that fall over this time period. Perhaps even more likely is the possibility that “record warm low” temperatures will be set in the Mid-Atlantic region as some of the upcoming nights later this weekend and early next week will feature only a minimal drop in temperatures.
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Showers and embedded strong thunderstorms in the overnight hours were associated with the passage of a warm frontal system that has resulted in noticeably warmer and more humid air for the Mid-Atlantic region; especially, when compared to the last few comfortable cooler-than-normal days. Today’s temperatures will climb well into the 80’s and the humidity levels have climbed to uncomfortable levels and these harsh conditions will only intensify over coming days. In fact, temperatures should easily reach the 90 degree mark for highs on Friday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and then climb well into the 90's on Saturday, Sunday and Monday - perhaps even a flirtation with the 100 degree mark in some spots on those three days. This stretch of hot and humid weather will likely last for a week or so from its beginning on Friday. The good news is that this extended stretch of heat and humidity could very well be the worst of the summer in the Northeast US as there are signs for more comfortable weather conditions during the second half of July and during the month of August.
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Following the passage of a warm front, it’ll turn noticeably warmer and more humid today and the heat and humidity will continue to build around here on Friday. Temperatures should climb well into the 80’s later today and then reach or surpass 90 degrees on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. It should stay rain-free on Friday and during the upcoming weekend, but the chance for showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase for later Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (4th of July).
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High pressure to our north has shifted to a position off the east coast and a weak frontal system will slowly approach us from the west over the next 24 hours. As a result, the chances for showers will increase markedly by later today and there will be occasional showers and possible embedded thunderstorms tonight and part of Thursday. Some of the rain can come down hard at times in the overnight hours and early on Thursday. Heat and humidity will build by Friday afternoon and it’ll stay uncomfortable through the weekend and right into the middle part of next week. While the Friday, Saturday, Sunday time period looks to be generally rain-free, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase for later Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (4th of July).
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High pressure over New England will control our weather for another day before it shifts eastward to a position off the east coast by later tonight and early Wednesday. As the high shifts to the east, our low-level winds will change direction and turn to a more southwesterly direction and overall humidity will climb. Also, as a front slides eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic region, our chances for showers and thunderstorms will rise later Wednesday and that threat should continue into Thursday as well. Heat and humidity will then build noticeably around here on Friday and uncomfortable conditions will continue this weekend and likely right into the middle of next week.
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The summer solstice has just passed and the days will grow shorter and shorter from here on out until the winter season gets underway. While winter is still a long way off, there are already some clues that can provide some insight as to what kind of weather we can expect around here in the Mid-Atlantic region. First, signs point to the formation of warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures by the upcoming winter season in two key areas of the Pacific Ocean: 1) the central equatorial region and 2) the Gulf of Alaska. Second, there is little doubt that solar activity will remain on the low side through the upcoming winter season as we are rapidly approaching the next solar minimum phase from an already historically weak solar cycle #24. Finally, one important wintertime cold air source region for the Mid-Atlantic is Greenland and it is currently experiencing above-normal snow and ice cover. While this is in the speculation phase, all of these factors point to the possibility of cold and snowy conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region during the upcoming 2018-2019 winter season.
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The new work week starts off with very pleasant conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region, but a heat wave is in the making as we reach the end of June and begin the month of July. High pressure over southeastern Canada will build southward today and control the weather around here for the next couple of days. Temperatures and humidity levels will be very comfortable for late June and there will be plenty of sunshine as well each of the next two days. A frontal system will approach the area on Wednesday and there will be a noticeable increase in clouds and humidity and also a chance of showers and thunderstorms from later Wednesday into Thursday. Heat and humidity then returns by the weekend and it looks like this unfolding heat wave will continue well into next week.
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High pressure will lose its influence around here later today as a low pressure system over the Mississippi Valley heads northeastward towards the Great Lakes. This low pressure system will lead to a warm frontal passage here on Saturday and then it will drag a cool front through the region late in the day on Sunday. As a result, scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely threaten from later tonight into tomorrow night and then again late Sunday as the cool front arrives. Large and strong high pressure centered over the Great Lakes early next week will control the weather around here and the result will likely be a spectacular Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with very comfortable conditions for late June.
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