High pressure has resumed control of our weather and today will be another cold and dry day in the Mid-Atlantic region. A weak disturbance will slide across the region late tomorrow night and early Thursday and it could set off some snow shower activity with a dusting possible in some spots. A strong low pressure system will develop in the south-central US late in the week and spread moisture into our area later Friday and into the upcoming weekend. Odds favor primarily rain around here during this weekend upcoming event and some of it can be heavy at times, but some frozen precipitation cannot be completely ruled out at this time on both the front and back ends of the storm.
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Strong low pressure off the North Carolina coastline this morning will push out-to-sea and high pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic from the central part of the country. As a result, we’ll experience primarily cold and dry weather conditions around here through much of the work week. By the end of the week, moisture will be spreading northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico and we are likely to experience primarily rain from late Friday into the weekend, but it could be a close call for awhile between rain and snow.
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Low pressure slammed into southern California yesterday and it will take a southern route over the next few days from Texas to the Carolina coastline and then head slowly "out-to-sea" rather than up the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Given this track, there will likely be little-to-no impact around here in the NYC metro region from the late weekend storm, but we'll continue to monitor it for possible last minute changes. Heavy rain will fall across the Deep South and heavy snow is likely along and just to the north of Route I-40 from Oklahoma to interior North Carolina/southern Virginia. The heaviest snowfall may, in fact, end up occurring in the higher elevation locations of western North Carolina where 1-2 feet could ultimately accumulate over the upcoming weekend. Looking ahead, signs point to a major storm to deal with at the end of next week and following weekend in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US likely with rain or perhaps some combination of rain and snow.
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Low pressure will approach the southern California/northern Baja California region today from the eastern Pacific Ocean and it will then re-emerge over Texas by early Saturday morning. From there, this late week/weekend storm will head towards the Carolina coastline and it should produce a swath of heavy rain along the way in the Deep South and heavy snow on the north side from Oklahoma-to-southwestern Virginia/interior North Carolina. In fact, some higher elevation spots in southwest Virginia and interior North Carolina could see 1-2 feet of snow if this weekend storm reaches its full potential. After that, the storm could stay primarily to the south of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with little or no impact; however, it is still too early to take it off the table.
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Accumulating snow is falling over central and southern New Jersey and some areas may end up with 4 or 5 inches by the time the evening rolls around and a dusting to an inch or so is possible as far inland as Philly and its immediate suburbs. This localized snow event is associated with an inverted (“norlun”) trof axis that extends northwestward to New Jersey from a western Atlantic Ocean intensifying low pressure system. Looking ahead, a major storm will head from the eastern Pacific Ocean to Texas by the early part of the weekend and then it’ll make a move towards the North Carolina coastline. Given this track, significant accumulating snow will likely be the result from Oklahoma-to-North Carolina and even as far north as the southwestern part of Virginia. After that, there are some signs that this storm can ultimately have an impact on the I-95 corridor region in the Sunday/Monday time frame, but we’re still a bit too far away to be certain.
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An unstable atmosphere can result in some snow shower activity around here today and there can even be some small-scale heavier snow bands associated with an inverted ("norlun") trough extending back to the New Jersey coastline from a western Atlantic low pressure system. In fact, a few inches of snow can accumulate later today in coastal sections of central and southern New Jersey in this small-scale event. Later in the week, another low pressure system will approach the southern California/northern Baja California region from the eastern Pacific Ocean and it will then re-emerge over Texas by early Saturday morning. From there, this late week/weekend storm should head towards the Carolina coastline and it should produce a swath of heavy rain along the way in the Deep South and heavy snow on the north side from Oklahoma-to-southern Virginia/North Carolina. After that, it is still somewhat unclear as to whether this storm will impact the big cities from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC with any significant snow, but that threat is certainly still on the table.
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Colder air moved into the Mid-Atlantic region in the overnight hours and the chill will remain in place right through the upcoming weekend. In fact, the nation is currently experiencing colder-than-normal weather virtually from coast-to-coast and this general pattern will continue for the next few days. In terms of storminess, one low pressure system over the western Atlantic on Wednesday may feature an inverted (“norlun”) trough extending back to the New Jersey coastline with the potential of small-scale heavy snow banding and another storm will approach the southern California/northern Baja California region late in the week from the eastern Pacific Ocean. This late week storm will then re-emerge over Texas by early Saturday and from there it’ll likely track towards the Carolina coastline. Given this track, significant accumulating snow will likely be the result from Oklahoma-to-North Carolina and even as far north as the southern part of Virginia. After that, it is still somewhat unclear as to whether this storm will impact the big cities from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC with significant snowfall, but that scenario is certainly still on the table.
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The next storm of significance to monitor will push from the eastern Pacific Ocean towards Baja California on Friday and then likely re-emerge over Texas by early Saturday. From here, all signs point to a general west-to-east track to a position off the Carolina coastline by the second half of the weekend. Given this track, copious amounts of rain will likely fall from Texas-to-Georgia and there can be some severe weather to deal with in the Deep South. Farther north, along and just to the north of Route I-40, significant accumulating snow may take place from Oklahoma to southern Virginia/North Carolina over the next several days. It is still unclear, however, as to what kind of impact there may be from this storm in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, but the threat remains on the table for the late weekend/early next week time period.
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A storm will approach the southern part of California later this week and it will then take a southern track from Texas to the Southeast US coastline. This storm is likely to have a significant impact in the Deep South in terms of rainfall and even the potential for severe weather and it could very well generate significant snowfall along the “Route I-40” states from Oklahoma-to-North Carolina. After that, it is still unclear as to whether this storm will take a ride up along the Mid-Atlantic coastline and impact the big cities from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but that scenario is certainly still on the table.
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All eyes this week will be on a storm system that will approach southern California by Thursday or so and then take a southern track across the Deep South. By the weekend, this storm will likely have a significant impact on the south-central and southeast parts of the country and then it will need to be closely monitored to see if it makes a turn up along the eastern seaboard. If so, it could become a significant snow and/or rain producer for the Mid-Atlantic region in the Sunday/Monday time frame....stay tuned. In the short term, it’ll turn colder around here in the overnight hours following a relatively mild start to the week and the renewed chill will remain in place for the remainder of the week.
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