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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: NYC

7:00 AM | *A few showers possible here tonight, but an better chance comes Thursday night and Friday*

Paul Dorian

High pressure takes control of our weather today, but then a cold front can bring some shower activity here tonight, but this does not look like a significant rain event. After nice weather on Wednesday and Thursday, the combination of northern and southern stream systems could result in more substantial rain here from Thursday night into Friday.

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7:00 AM | *Looks like upper-level low has one more day of impact in the Mid-Atlantic*

Paul Dorian

The slow-moving upper-level low pressure system that trekked across the country last week is just now exiting off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and it will be close enough today and tonight to impact the region with plenty of clouds and occasional showers – perhaps even an isolated thunderstorm. High pressure takes over for Tuesday, but then a cold front can bring some shower activity here tomorrow night - maybe even a thunderstorm. After nice weather at mid-week, the combination of northern and southern stream systems could result in some rain here from Thursday night into Friday.

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7:00 AM | ***Heavy rain and severe weather threat late today and tonight...an unstable weekend to follow***

Paul Dorian

The threat of heavy rain and severe weather will shift to the eastern seaboard today with severe thunderstorm activity possible all the way from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. The heaviest and steadiest rain will occur in the overnight hours with up to a few inches possible in spots and localized flooding is a serious concern given the already well-saturated grounds. The main area of rain exits off the east coast early tomorrow morning; however, the rest of the weekend will remain quite unstable as a strong upper-level low painfully grinds its way across the region. As a result, instability showers are quite likely here on Saturday and there can be an isolated thunderstorm or two. By Sunday, the upper-level system will be overhead in the Mid-Atlantic region leading to the possibility of lingering clouds and additional instability showers on Easter Day. On Monday, this wave of energy in the upper atmosphere that has impacted much of the nation in recent days will finally exit off the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

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11:15 AM (Thursday) | ***Heavy rain and severe weather threat later today and tonight greatest in the Deep South…threat shifts to the east coast late tomorrow and tomorrow night***

Paul Dorian

Deep upper-level low pressure will intensify over the next 24 hours as it slowly grinds its way across the southern states.  The combination of this strong wave of energy in the upper atmosphere and an influx of very moist tropical air will result in a severe weather threat later today and tonight in the Deep South.  In addition to the severe weather threat which includes the potential for hail and isolated tornadoes, heavy rainfall is likely later today in the southern states and localized flooding is a concern as grounds are well saturated.  The threat for heavy rainfall and severe weather will shift to the eastern seaboard late tomorrow and tomorrow night with the possibility of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity extending from the Mid-Atlantic region to Florida.

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7:00 AM | ***Heavy rain from late tomorrow through tomorrow night and there can be strong thunderstorms as well***

Paul Dorian

The threat of heavy rain and severe weather will shift to the eastern seaboard late Friday and Friday night with severe thunderstorm activity possible from the Mid-Atlantic region to Florida. While the steadiest and heaviest rain will end by early Saturday, there will likely be some instability shower activity as the upper-level low will still be positioned to the west of the region. By Easter Sunday, the powerful upper-level system and main culprit of this upcoming active weather will begin to weaken, but the atmosphere will remain unstable enough for the chance of additional showers. High pressure ridging takes control on Monday and temperatures will climb well into the 70’s and there should be plenty of sunshine to start the new work week.

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12:45 PM | ***Significant weather event next few days to include heavy rain and severe thunderstorms***

Paul Dorian

Deep upper-level low pressure will intensify over the next couple of days as it slowly grinds its way across the southern states.  The combination of this strong wave of energy in the upper atmosphere and an influx of very moist low-level air will result in a severe weather threat today in the region from Texas-to-Kansas and later tomorrow across Mississippi, Alabama and perhaps as far north as Tennessee.  In addition to the severe weather threat which includes the potential for large hail and tornadoes, heavy rainfall is likely later today in the south-central states and then on Thursday across the southeastern US.  Any heavy rainfall can result in localized flooding as much of the eastern half of the nation is experiencing well-saturated ground conditions. The heavy rainfall and severe weather threat will reach the eastern seaboard on Friday afternoon and evening with the possibility of strong-to-severe thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic region to Florida.

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7:00 AM | **Heavy rain event coming later Friday into early Saturday and it may include strong-to-severe thunderstorms*

Paul Dorian

A back door cool front passed through the region last night and it’ll turn a bit cooler today with a low-level flow of air out of the north-to-northeast. This same front will turn around later tomorrow and advance to the north as a warm front. As a result, it’ll turn warmer on Friday along with increasing south-to-southwest winds as we close out the work week. A strong cold front supported by vigorous energy in the upper atmosphere will grudgingly works its way to the east coast at the end of the week and this will result in a soaking rain event for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later Friday into early Saturday. In addition to the heavy rainfall, there is quite likely to be a threat for strong thunderstorm activity in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region later Friday and Friday night. As the upper-level low crawls to the Mid-Atlantic coastline this weekend, it'll remain mainly cloudy on Saturday and instability showers will remain a threat. Skies should become partly sunny on Easter Sunday, but a shower cannot be ruled out.

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2:10 PM | *Threat of heavy rain and severe weather in the I-95 corridor from later Friday into early Saturday*

Paul Dorian

Deep upper-level low pressure will slowly grind its way to the east coast late this weekend and during the upcoming weekend and the result is likely to be a major rain event for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later Friday into early Saturday.  In addition, vigorous energy in the upper atmosphere will combine with a push of tropical moisture to increase chances for severe weather in the I-95 corridor from later Friday into Friday night to include the possibility of isolated tornadoes.  As the deep upper-level low inches overhead on Saturday, instability showers could form, but Sunday should see some improvement as the system finally begins to weaken and pushes off the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

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7:00 AM | *Heavy rain event later Friday into early Saturday and there can be a strong thunderstorm or two mixed in as well*

Paul Dorian

The upcoming Easter weekend will be somewhat unsettled and it may be preceded by a deluge from later Friday into late Friday night. High pressure builds into the area today and winds will remain noticeable, but less of a factor than yesterday. A frontal system will approach the region in the overnight hours with the buildup of clouds and it’ll stall nearby keeping the threat for showers alive from later Wednesday into Thursday. This front will advance to the north of here as a warm front by later Thursday and we'll turn warmer and winds will intensify noticeably to close out the work week. In addition, as a strong cold front slowly works its way towards the east coast, rain will break out on Friday and it is likely to turn into a heavy rain event on Friday night and a thunderstorm or two can mix in as well. Instability showers are possible here this weekend, but it doesn't look like a total washout.

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7:00 AM | *One rain event winds down today, but another significant rain event likely to come at week's end*

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will pull away to the northeast today and drag a cold front through the region which will produce lingering showers early this morning. Winds will pick up in intensity later today out of the NW as drier, colder air moves in following the frontal passage and gusts to 50 mph are possible. It’ll stay dry on Tuesday, but a warm front could bring a few showers to the region on Tuesday night and Wednesday. A strong low pressure system and its attendant frontal systems will likely bring another round of rain and thunderstorms here at week’s end and this is likely to be a significant rain event.

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