Numerous ingredients are coming together for what is likely to be a multi-day severe weather event from the central US to the east coast during the period from later Friday to Sunday night. These ingredients include not just one, but two strong upper-level lows, powerful jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, an influx of warm, humid air on the storm’s front side, and a surface low pressure system that will deepen to rarely ever seen barometric pressure levels as it moves from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes. All severe weather parameters are on the table during this multi-day event including swaths of intense and damaging winds, strong tornadoes, hail, and torrential rainfall that can result in flash flooding.
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The combination of an intense upper-level low, powerful jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, strong southerly low-level flow of warm, moist air, and a deepening surface low pressure system will likely lead to a severe weather outbreak from later Friday into Friday night. Indeed, this threat of severe weather may continue right through the upcoming weekend as it shifts slowly to the east reaching the Atlantic seaboard by the latter part of the weekend. The deepening surface low pressure system may reach central pressures not often seen in this part of the nation which will result in a very strong pressure gradient potentially leading to widespread damaging winds. In addition, this unfolding atmospheric setup can lead to some strong tornado activity from later Friday into Saturday across portions of the central and eastern US.
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The month of March is now underway and it certainly can feature multiple severe weather outbreaks as the air becomes increasingly warm and humid across the southern states at the same time colder-than-normal air masses continue to push south and east from Canada into the US. The ingredients are falling into place for severe weather during each of the next three days as indeed colder-than-normal air from the western states will push eastward into a warmer-than-normal air mass that today will be centered over the central states. The main threat zone for severe weather today is likely to extend from Texas-to-Oklahoma-to-Kansas and then an enhanced risk is likely on Tuesday centered over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley region. Spring-like storm conditions will reach the eastern states on Wednesday with windy, warmer weather, soaking rainfall, and the potential of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity.
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Arctic chill dominates the scene today across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation and will continue to do so during the next few days. Indeed, there were numerous daily low temperature records set this morning with a focus on the north-central states (e.g., Glasgow, MT; Bismarck, ND; Duluth, MN) where wind chills of 50 degrees below zero have been commonplace. In addition to the cold, the wintry pattern will result in a snowstorm during the next couple of days that will first hit the Middle Mississippi Valley region (e.g., northern Arkansas/southern Missouri) and then extend to the southern Mid-Atlantic region (e.g., southeastern VA, Delmarva Peninsula). There can even be some snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later tomorrow into Thursday as low pressure intensifies off the coast and a northern stream upper-level low passes overhead creating an unstable environment...small accumulations are possible. Looking ahead, though temperatures will relax later this weekend into early next week, there are signs that additional Arctic cold air outbreaks will impact the central and eastern states as we close out the month of February and begin March.
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There is a snow threat for later this week in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor; however, of more immediate concern, is the threat for some serious weather during the next 36 hours or so. A strong cold front will barrel through the region later today and there will be cold air that pours into the Mid-Atlantic region on powerful northwest winds on its heels. Ahead of the front, the rain can be torrential and there can be scattered strong thunderstorm activity as well. On the back side of the front, indications are that powerful NW winds can gust into the 50-60 mph range from later today through much of the day on Monday raising the possibility of numerous power outages at the same time temperatures take a plunge…not a good combination. Later in the week, low pressure will form over the northern Gulf coast and then head east-northeast towards the Carolina coastline. If it continues on an east-northeast track then the chance of significant snowfall in the immediate I-95 corridor would be diminished. However, it it were to take a turn up along the east coast then snowfall in DC, Philly, and NYC could be more substantial from later Wednesday into Thursday.
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A major storm system that pounded the western US will cross the country and impact the northeastern states this weekend. There will be plenty of rainfall and strong winds during this weekend event in the Mid-Atlantic region, but snow and ice are likely at the onset with some accumulations possible on Saturday; especially, north of the PA/MD border. Once this system passes, cold air will pour into the northeastern states on powerful and potentially damaging NW winds and next week looks quite cold across much of the central and eastern US. Low pressure is likely to gather strength in the southern states by the middle of next week aided by an influx of Gulf moisture and it looks like it may become an accumulating snow threat by later Wednesday or Thursday.
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A major storm system will pound the western states during the next couple of days and it will then trek across the nation and wreak havoc in the eastern states this weekend. In California, the rainfall in coming days will be heavy all along low-lying coastal sections from Oregon to the Mexican border, and snowfall will be measured by the foot in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. By the early part of the upcoming weekend, this same storm system will bring flooding rainfall to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and then significant snow is likely on Sunday across interior New York State and New England.
In the Mid-Atlantic region, there will be plenty of rainfall this weekend; however, it is likely to be preceded on the front-end by snow and accumulations are possible; especially, to the north of the PA/MD border. Cold air will pour into the eastern states following this weekend storm system and next week is indeed looking very cold across the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Low pressure is likely to gather strength in the southern states by the middle of next week aided by an influx of Gulf moisture and it could become a major east coast storm system by later Wednesday or Thursday.
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One low pressure system is pulling away this morning and another one is following right on its heels and will end up over the eastern Great Lakes by early Thursday. There will be some snow shower activity in the Mid-Atlantic region during the next several hours and then (light) mixed precipitation late today/early tonight should change to plain rain by late tonight/early tomorrow. Another storm system will hit the Mid-Atlantic region during the weekend and it’ll have an impact on both Saturday and Saturday. At the front end, there can be a burst of snow and/or sleet later Saturday morning or mid-day...perhaps even some accumulations north of the PA/MD border...and then rain is likely on Saturday night and Sunday. In fact, some of the rain can be heavy at times which would raise some flooding concerns given the combination of the rain with melting snow. A strong cold front pushes through the Mid-Atlantic later Sunday ushering in much colder-than-normal air mass for the first half of next week. By the middle of next week, we’ll have to watch for the possibility of an east coast storm system that would have plenty of cold air to work with in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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The hits just keep on coming and it looks like a wild ten days of weather...
The very active weather patten will bring the Mid-Atlantic region a snow event later today/tonight...a mixed precipitation event later tomorrow/tomorrow night...a weekend double-barreled strong storm system with gusty winds, rain that can get heavy at times, and snow cannot be ruled out on the front end...and, finally, there can be an east coast storm threat later next week.
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The next low pressure to impact the Mid-Atlantic region will take more of a southern track compared to recent systems and head to a position off the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early Wednesday. As a result, cold air will become better established farther to the south and we are looking at primarily a snow event in the Mid-Atlantic including across the DC metro region. Given the southern track, the highest snowfall amounts are likely to cut across the southern Mid-Atlantic in places like DC, Virginia, Delmarva and southern New Jersey where several inches are possible. A follow-up low pressure system will quickly follow from late Wednesday into Thursday, and it will have a lot of cold air on its front end likely resulting in snow and/or sleet by Wednesday evening in much of the Mid-Atlantic region. However, this second system will take a track to the northwest of I-95 and that path will allow for milder air to push northward resulting in a changeover by Thursday of snow/sleet to freezing rain and rain.
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