Low pressure will move in a general “west-to-east” fashion across southern Canada during the next 48 hours and it will strengthen dramatically by the time it reaches the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Friday morning. This intensifying storm system and its associated strong cold front will have a big impact on the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US between later today and Friday to include some accumulating snow, possible snow squalls, powerful and potentially damaging wind gusts of 50 mph or so, and the ushering in of another Arctic air mass which will produce the lowest wind chills of the season so far.
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One of the biggest weather stories going forward is the cold wave that is coming to much of the nation beginning late this week and likely continuing for much of the first couple weeks of December. In fact, this will likely be one of the coldest starts to the month of December in many years and it will have a “Siberian” connection.
Before we get to the cold wave, there will be a lot of weather to go through across much of the nation with significant snowfall in some areas. Low pressure is currently pushing eastward across the higher elevations of the western US resulting in substantial snow accumulations from the Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California to the Colorado Rockies. Some of these locations will end up with snow totals on the order of 1-2 feet before this low spills out into the middle of the nation at mid-week.
From there, this low pressure system will move rather quickly across the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday night and to the southern New England coastline by mid-day Thursday. As a result, rain is likely to reach the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor by late Wednesday night and continue into Thursday (Thanksgiving Day). Farther to the north, accumulating snow is likely to fall from early Thursday into early Friday across interior, higher elevation locations of northern PA, upstate NY and interior New England with several inches on the table.
Following the departure of the low pressure system to the western Atlantic, a northwesterly flow of air will develop across the northeastern quadrant of the nation bringing much colder-than-normal air from Canada into the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US. The “Great Lakes snow machine” will get turned on with the much colder-than-normal air flowing over the still relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes from later Friday into Saturday and there is likely to be much more in the way of “lake-effect” snow activity during this upcoming cold wave.
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A strong cold front passed through in the overnight hours with a band of heavy rainfall and gusty winds and colder air has followed into the Mid-Atlantic region. Surface low pressure has formed along the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline, and instead of pushing to the north, it will be “forced” to rotate around as it becomes increasingly influenced by strong blocking high pressure to the north. As such, an area of moisture now over the northern Mid-Atlantic will loop back around and impact the entire region by later tonight and through the day on Friday.
As the atmosphere turns colder, the precipitation will mix with snow and/or ice pellets by later tonight in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and then likely to all snow for awhile on Friday in much of the area. In fact, small accumulations are possible on Friday across many of the northern and western suburbs along the I-95 corridor. Significant snowfall of at least 6-12 inches is coming to much of the Appalachian Mountain chain including in the region from West Virginia to the Laurel Highlands of southwestern PA, and from the Poconos in northeastern PA to the Catskills and Adirondacks of upstate NY.
Looking ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we push through the remainder of November and into the early part of December...quite a wintry look to the unfolding weather pattern that will include additional threats of snow for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.
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If you are a skier in the northeastern part of the country then this upcoming storm system will be quite good news as early season significant accumulating snow is likely in much of the Appalachian Mountain chain including in the region from West Virginia to the Laurel Highlands of southwestern PA and from the Poconos in northeastern PA to the Catskills and Adirondacks of upstate NY. In fact, snow is quite possible during this event all the way into the I-95 corridor and small accumulations are possible on Friday in some of the northern and western suburbs; especially, to the north of the PA/MD border.
A deepening trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere will slide south and east to a position over the Mid-Atlantic by tomorrow night and this will help to spawn a (secondary) low pressure system near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. This system will become a slow-mover thanks to intense blocking high pressure to the north that will be parked over northeastern Canada. In addition to the threat for the first snows of the season, the northeastern states will experience very beneficial rainfall on the storm’s front end as a cold front pushes through from late today into early Thursday…and that won’t be the end of the precipitation.
Looking ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we push through the remainder of November and into the early part of December.. It is quite a wintry look to this unfolding weather pattern that will include additional snow threats…perhaps one late next week right around Thanksgiving Day.
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The weather map is quite busy currently across North America with intense high pressure ridges combined with deep troughs of low pressure and on top of that we have some tropical moisture on the playing field as well. A deep trough over the northeastern Pacific Ocean will help to spawn a rapidly intensifying storm system that will slam into the Pacific Northwest from later today through tomorrow with hurricane-force winds, tremendous rainfall in low-lying areas, and substantial snowfall in the inland, higher elevation locations that will be on the order of several feet in some spots. This storm system will become a slow-mover and there will be lingering effects from northern California to Oregon and Washington all the way through the second half of the week.
Another upper-level trough will slide south and east during the next couple of days from the north-central states and deepen markedly as it reaches the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by later Thursday. An initial low pressure system will head to the Great Lakes while a secondary forms near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. This unfolding storm system will also become a slow-mover during the latter part of the week and will bring with it beneficial rains, accumulating snows across inland, higher elevation locations, and a prolonged period of strong NW winds.
Looking ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we push through the remainder of November and into the early part of December...quite a winter look to the overall pattern that should include threats of snow as well.
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Quite an active and somewhat unusual weather pattern is developing across North America and one that will feature multiple intense upper-level ridges of high pressure and deep troughs of low pressure. One result of this overall pattern will be a powerful storm system that will slam into the Pacific Northwest from later tomorrow into Wednesday. This storm will feature explosive intensification with as much as a 70 millibar drop in 24 hours of its central pressure yielding the strength of a “category 4” hurricane and easily classifying it as a “bomb cyclone”. Another significant storm system will develop in this active weather pattern during the late week bringing with it rain, accumulating snows, and a sustained period of strong winds across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US.
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Another “major” hurricane may be headed towards Florida’s Gulf coast with a possible mid-week landfall right near the Tampa Bay region. “Milton” became a named tropical storm on Saturday over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it is likely to attain hurricane status by later Sunday as it begins a move to the east. Given the generally favorable environmental conditions, Milton could then become a “major” hurricane as early as Monday as it continues on a trek towards Florida’s west coast.
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The overall weather pattern across the nation remains quite active as we push into the second week of May and this includes continuing threats of severe weather. Earlier this week, severe weather took place across Oklahoma and Texas with numerous tornadoes reported and the threat zone on Tuesday shifted to the Ohio Valley. Today’s greatest threat of severe weather will be focused on the Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and, once again, tornadoes will be on the table. The severe weather threat on Thursday will shift a bit to the east and south and likely extend all the way across the Gulf states from Texas-to-Georgia and up along the eastern seaboard to around the Delmarva Peninsula/southern New Jersey region.
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Another round of accumulating snow is headed to the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday and it should get underway early in the day in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. This is a dynamic storm system that will have strong upper-level support and complicating factors will include small-scale heavier snow bands that are likely to develop and an inverted (aka “norlun”) trough that will extend northwestward back to the Mid-Atlantic region from the low pressure center out over the western Atlantic. On the heels of the snow, another Arctic air mass will plunge into the eastern US for the weekend and lower teens or even upper single digit overnight lows will be possible in many suburban locations. Looking ahead, the Arctic chill will dissipate early next week and we’ll turn warmer-than-normal for the middle and latter parts with rain likely back into the forecast.
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An intensifying storm system over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean will be quite impactful during the next couple of days all the way from the Carolinas to Long Island. Heavy rain, powerful winds, beach erosion and coastal flooding are all on the table from this storm as it pushes in a general north-to-northwest direction during the next couple of days and even isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. This system will take on tropical characteristics as it heads towards an early Saturday landfall in eastern North Carolina - potentially intensifying into a category 1 hurricane. Later this weekend, as the storm reaches the Chesapeake Bay region, it will slow down and begin a turn from the general northward direction to northeast. It’ll likely then cross the Delaware Bay and heads toward southern New Jersey in a weakened state and its slow pace will result in rainfall across the Mid-Atlantic region all the way into later Sunday.
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