****An intense spring storm system and a multi-day severe weather threat from the central states to the eastern seaboard****
Paul Dorian
One key ingredient to the potential late week severe weather outbreak will be a very strong vorticity maximum in the upper atmosphere and its associated jet streak that will be centered over the central Plains as of Friday evening. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
The combination of an intense upper-level low, powerful jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, strong southerly low-level flow of warm, moist air, and a deepening surface low pressure system will likely lead to a severe weather outbreak from later Friday into Friday night. Indeed, this threat of severe weather may continue right through the upcoming weekend as it shifts slowly to the east reaching the Atlantic seaboard by the latter part of the weekend. The deepening surface low pressure system may reach central pressures not often seen in this part of the nation which will result in a very strong pressure gradient potentially leading to widespread damaging winds. In addition, this unfolding atmospheric setup can lead to some strong tornado activity from later Friday into Saturday across portions of the central and eastern US.
Severe weather will be a threat on both Friday and Saturday and that threat can even extend into Sunday along the Atlantic seaboard. Maps courtesy NOAA/SPC
Details
On Friday, a strong upper-level low will intensify as it pushes northeastward on a track from the southern Plains to the western Great Lakes. An intense upper-level jet streak will combine with a powerful low-level jet to help destabilize the atmosphere across the central Plains to the Mississippi Valley on Friday and Friday night with a strong southerly flow of air adding plenty of warmth and humidity into the overall pattern. As a result, severe thunderstorms may break out from later Friday into Friday night from the central Plains to the Mississippi Valley with damaging winds highly probable and there can be some strong tornadic activity as well.
One of the ingredients of this potential late week/weekend severe weather outbreak will be a powerful low-level jet streak as depicted here on Friday evening across the Middle Mississippi Valley region. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
On Saturday, the initial upper-level low will push towards the Great Lakes, but a second system will barrel eastward through the southern states. As a result, the atmosphere will become quite unstable on Saturday across the Mississippi Valley and the threat of severe weather will resume and spread east to the region from the Deep South/central Gulf coast to the Ohio Valley in the north. This threat of severe weather will again include the possibility of strong tornado activity with a mix of “supercell” thunderstorms and squall lines moving across the region.
One of the ingredients of this potential late week/weekend severe weather outbreak will be a powerful low-level jet streak as depicted here on Saturday afternoon across the Lower Mississippi Valley region and Southeast US. Map courtesy NOAA, Weather Bell Analytics
By Sunday, the strong storm system will shift east to the eastern states and there will again be a strong southerly flow of low-level air out ahead of the surface system and its associated cold front pumping very mild and moist air from south-to-north up along the eastern seaboard. As a result, there can be some heavy rain on Sunday in the eastern states and the threat of strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be on the table as a strong cold front barrels eastward from the Ohio Valley. The best chance of damaging winds will likely be from the southern Mid-Atlantic region southward to the Carolinas. Cooler air will follow the passage of the cold frontal system into the northeastern states for the beginning of next week.
The threat of strong-to-severe thunderstorms will shift to the eastern states on Sunday as a strong cold front barrels to the east from the Ohio Valley. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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