Sunday PM | ***Powerful winds from later today into Monday as cold air pours into the Mid-Atlantic region…power outages on the table***
Paul Dorian
A very strong pressure gradient will form by tonight between intense low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes (upper, right) and incoming Arctic high pressure (upper, left) over the Northern Plains. The result will be powerful wind gusts of 50-60 mph in the Mid-Atlantic region from later today through much of the day on Monday…power outages on the table. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
There is a snow threat for later this week in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor; however, of more immediate concern, is the threat for some serious weather during the next 36 hours or so. A strong cold front will barrel through the region later today and there will be cold air that pours into the Mid-Atlantic region on powerful northwest winds on its heels. Ahead of the front, the rain can be torrential and there can be scattered strong thunderstorm activity as well. On the back side of the front, indications are that powerful NW winds can gust into the 50-60 mph range from later today through much of the day on Monday raising the possibility of numerous power outages at the same time temperatures take a plunge…not a good combination. Later in the week, low pressure will form over the northern Gulf coast and then head east-northeast towards the Carolina coastline. If it continues on an east-northeast track at that point - a reasonable scenario - then the chance of significant snowfall in the immediate I-95 corridor would be diminished….stay tuned.
Powerful and potentially damaging winds…power outages on the table
A strong cold front will push through the region later today and its approach and passage will not go unnoticed. Showers will become more numerous as the day progresses ahead of the frontal system and some of the rain can be very heavy at times. In fact, there is the chance that a few strong thunderstorms form later today just ahead of the cold front as it slides from west-to-east towards the east coast. Temperatures have started the day at rather low levels in the 30’s in most areas, but they’ll climb noticeably during the mid-day and early afternoon hours on the heels of a warm frontal passage and should spike into the 50’s ahead of the incoming cold front. Temperatures will plunge later tonight following the cold frontal passage as cold air pours into the region on powerful northwest winds and they’ll struggle to climb above freezing on Monday.
00Z Euro depicts strong low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coastline as of early Thursday which would likely result in some accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. However, it is a little too early to say for sure what the final track of this system will be and that will be critical as to how much snow can fall in DC, Philly and NYC. Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics
As far as the winds are concerned, the synoptic pattern is setting up for powerful and potentially damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph from later today through much of the day on Monday. A surface low pressure system will intensify rapidly later today as it moves across upstate New York to the New England coastline. The low will end up near 960 millibars by late tonight and - combined with an incoming strong high pressure system across the middle of the nation - the pressure gradient will tighten dramatically resulting in winds as high as 50-60 mph in our area. Some of the highest wind gusts may take place immediately in the wake of the frontal passage late today when the pressure rises will be the sharpest. Unfortunately, the combination of the expected powerful wind gusts and wet soils raises the chance of tree damage and numerous power outages in the Mid-Atlantic region and this would come at a time when some serious cold comes our way.
Snow threat later in the week
Arctic high pressure takes full control of our weather by Tuesday and temperatures will be far below-normal for this time of year in the Mid-Atlantic region and across a wide portion of the nation. Overnight low temperatures in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor are likely to be in the teens late Monday and again late Tuesday with even lower wind chill values. By later Tuesday night, low pressure from the southern states will begin to make a push towards the Carolina coastline. This system will have plenty of Gulf moisture available to it and is likely to make a push to the east-northeast on Wednesday and encounter plenty of cold air in the Mid-Atlantic region. Once the low reaches the Carolina coastline, it can take a turn “up the coast” or continue to move in an east-to-northeast direction to a position out over the open waters of the western Atlantic Ocean. If it continues on that east-northeast track - a reasonable scenario at this point - then the chance of significant snowfall in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor would be greatly diminished. If, on the other hand, it were to ride up along the eastern seaboard then the result could be much more appreciable snowfall amounts in the immediate I-95 corridor…stay tuned.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com