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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: NYC

7:00 AM | *An unsettled week with multiple shots at showers*

Paul Dorian

The new week will start off with high pressure in control, but it will have a short-term benefit as an overall active weather pattern will bring us multiple shots at showers this week. A frontal system will meander around the Mid-Atlantic region for much of the week and bring us showers chances along with possible thunderstorms and temperatures will tend to be up and down. A cold front may arrive at the end of the week and this could end the unsettled spell of weather and perhaps lead us to a decent weekend.

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7:00 AM | *Occasional rain today and perhaps a strong late day/early evening thunderstorm...strong winds late tonight and on Saturday as cooler, drier air floods the region*

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will push to our northwest today and the combination of a warm front this morning and a cold front late today will bring us occasional rain and a possible late day/early evening strong thunderstorm with the most likely timetable for a line of storms between 4 and 8PM. Any late day/early evening thunderstorm can produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall with localized flooding. Temperatures will warm up some later today following the passage of the warm front, but will drop dramatically late tonight after the cold frontal passage and winds will whip out of the NW towards morning. Strong winds are to continue on Saturday to go along with mainly sunny skies and cooler conditions. Another cold front arrives on Sunday and it too can result in some shower activity for the Mid-Atlantic region. An overall active weather pattern will bring us additional chances for rain around here later next week.

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7:00 AM | *Showers tonight and occasional rain on Friday as warm front and cold front combination impacts the region*

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will push from the central Plains towards the Ohio Valley later today and tonight and it will push a warm frontal system into the region by early tomorrow which will be followed by the passage of a cold frontal system on Friday night. A couple of showers are possible today across the NYC metro region and occasional showers are likely tonight. On Friday, it'll turn milder and there will be occasional rain and perhaps a strong thunderstorm or two. Some of the rain can be heavy at times later tomorrow just ahead of the strong cold frontal system. Winds will pick up noticeably late tomorrow night and Saturday will be a windy, dry day with cooler conditions and mainly sunny skies. Another strong cold front arrives on Sunday with the likelihood of more shower activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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7:00 AM | *Next rain chances comes late tomorrow into Friday...another chance of showers on Sunday*

Paul Dorian

A cool frontal system passed through the region last night and today will be slightly cooler with a noticeable NW breeze at times. High pressure will continue to control our weather as we begin the day on Thursday, but showers are possible by the late afternoon and quite likely tomorrow night. The shower threat will continue here on Friday and there can be a thunderstorm mixed in as well as low pressure pushes a couple of frontal systems through our region. Dry weather is likely to start the weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region, but another shower threat is possible on Sunday as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest.

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7:00 AM | *A few showers possible here tonight, but an better chance comes Thursday night and Friday*

Paul Dorian

High pressure takes control of our weather today, but then a cold front can bring some shower activity here tonight, but this does not look like a significant rain event. After nice weather on Wednesday and Thursday, the combination of northern and southern stream systems could result in more substantial rain here from Thursday night into Friday.

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7:00 AM | *Looks like upper-level low has one more day of impact in the Mid-Atlantic*

Paul Dorian

The slow-moving upper-level low pressure system that trekked across the country last week is just now exiting off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and it will be close enough today and tonight to impact the region with plenty of clouds and occasional showers – perhaps even an isolated thunderstorm. High pressure takes over for Tuesday, but then a cold front can bring some shower activity here tomorrow night - maybe even a thunderstorm. After nice weather at mid-week, the combination of northern and southern stream systems could result in some rain here from Thursday night into Friday.

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7:00 AM | ***Heavy rain and severe weather threat late today and tonight...an unstable weekend to follow***

Paul Dorian

The threat of heavy rain and severe weather will shift to the eastern seaboard today with severe thunderstorm activity possible all the way from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. The heaviest and steadiest rain will occur in the overnight hours with up to a few inches possible in spots and localized flooding is a serious concern given the already well-saturated grounds. The main area of rain exits off the east coast early tomorrow morning; however, the rest of the weekend will remain quite unstable as a strong upper-level low painfully grinds its way across the region. As a result, instability showers are quite likely here on Saturday and there can be an isolated thunderstorm or two. By Sunday, the upper-level system will be overhead in the Mid-Atlantic region leading to the possibility of lingering clouds and additional instability showers on Easter Day. On Monday, this wave of energy in the upper atmosphere that has impacted much of the nation in recent days will finally exit off the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

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11:15 AM (Thursday) | ***Heavy rain and severe weather threat later today and tonight greatest in the Deep South…threat shifts to the east coast late tomorrow and tomorrow night***

Paul Dorian

Deep upper-level low pressure will intensify over the next 24 hours as it slowly grinds its way across the southern states.  The combination of this strong wave of energy in the upper atmosphere and an influx of very moist tropical air will result in a severe weather threat later today and tonight in the Deep South.  In addition to the severe weather threat which includes the potential for hail and isolated tornadoes, heavy rainfall is likely later today in the southern states and localized flooding is a concern as grounds are well saturated.  The threat for heavy rainfall and severe weather will shift to the eastern seaboard late tomorrow and tomorrow night with the possibility of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity extending from the Mid-Atlantic region to Florida.

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7:00 AM | ***Heavy rain from late tomorrow through tomorrow night and there can be strong thunderstorms as well***

Paul Dorian

The threat of heavy rain and severe weather will shift to the eastern seaboard late Friday and Friday night with severe thunderstorm activity possible from the Mid-Atlantic region to Florida. While the steadiest and heaviest rain will end by early Saturday, there will likely be some instability shower activity as the upper-level low will still be positioned to the west of the region. By Easter Sunday, the powerful upper-level system and main culprit of this upcoming active weather will begin to weaken, but the atmosphere will remain unstable enough for the chance of additional showers. High pressure ridging takes control on Monday and temperatures will climb well into the 70’s and there should be plenty of sunshine to start the new work week.

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12:45 PM | ***Significant weather event next few days to include heavy rain and severe thunderstorms***

Paul Dorian

Deep upper-level low pressure will intensify over the next couple of days as it slowly grinds its way across the southern states.  The combination of this strong wave of energy in the upper atmosphere and an influx of very moist low-level air will result in a severe weather threat today in the region from Texas-to-Kansas and later tomorrow across Mississippi, Alabama and perhaps as far north as Tennessee.  In addition to the severe weather threat which includes the potential for large hail and tornadoes, heavy rainfall is likely later today in the south-central states and then on Thursday across the southeastern US.  Any heavy rainfall can result in localized flooding as much of the eastern half of the nation is experiencing well-saturated ground conditions. The heavy rainfall and severe weather threat will reach the eastern seaboard on Friday afternoon and evening with the possibility of strong-to-severe thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic region to Florida.

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