Last night’s frontal passage has ushered in much colder air for the region and the winds will stay a big factor as well through a good part of the day. Temperatures will be confined to the lower 50’s for highs this afternoon following the near 70 degrees that we experienced on Thursday. Winds will diminish tonight and temperatures will drop to the freezing mark late tonight under clear skies and that will be the first time this season for many locations. A secondary cold front will usher in an even cooler air mass on Sunday and a widespread freeze is likely late Sunday night/early Monday morning as high pressure moves directly overhead.
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All the ingredients are coming together for a wild weather event tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region and northeastern US. Vigorous energy in the upper part of the atmosphere associated with a powerful jet streak will combine with a low-level jet, very warm and humid air, and an intensifying surface low pressure system to generate a squall line along a slow-moving cold frontal boundary zone. This squall line should arrive in the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region of DC-to-Philly-to-NYC between 8 and 11 PM with torrential downpours, strong-to-severe thunderstorms, 50-60 mph wind gusts and perhaps isolated tornadoes.
Much colder air will arrive late tonight riding in on strong NW winds and a secondary push of colder air will arrive on Sunday leading to the first widespread freeze from late Sunday night into early Monday morning in the I-95 corridor. In fact, the overall weather pattern will tend to change dramatically with tonight’s powerful cold frontal passage with colder-than-normal conditions likely in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US for much of the month of November following a warmer-than-normal October.
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Today will be an unusually warm day for the end of October with windy conditions and occasional showers although there will be much rain-free time as well. A powerful cold front will slowly push in our direction today from the Ohio Valley and a squall line is likely to form along its boundary zone late in the afternoon extending in a north-to-south fashion from central NY-to-central PA-to-western Virginia. This squall line will arrive here late this evening bringing us heavy downpours, possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms, and wind gusts to 50+ mph. The most likely timetable for this Halloween Night wild weather is between the hours of 8PM and 2AM. Power outages are on the table as many leaves remain on trees which makes them more vulnerable than say a month from now. Behind the front, winds will turn to a west-to-northwest direction and can gust past 40 mph towards Friday daybreak. It'll turn much cooler late tonight and for Friday and then an even colder air mass will arrive on Sunday leading to the first widespread freeze around here late Sunday night/early Monday.
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Every once in awhile there is a frontal passage that is a longer-term pattern changer and tomorrow night, we will experience such a front in the Mid-Atlantic region and NE US. October has been generally warmer-than-normal in the eastern US with Philly, for example, at +3.2 ºF for the month so far and Washington’s Reagan National Airport at +4.4 ºF. The strong cold front that will pass through the region tomorrow night with downpours, strong-to-severe thunderstorms, and howling winds gusting up to 50 mph will usher in much cooler air for Friday and Saturday and then a secondary front on Sunday will usher in the coldest air of the season so far. A widespread freeze is likely on Sunday night for the first time this season in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US and a colder-than-normal pattern is likely to continue for much of the month of November.
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A slow-moving strong cold front will continue to slowly trek across the nation over the next couple of days and it’ll remain to our west through most of the day on Thursday. As a result, it’ll stay warm and quite breezy around here on Halloween Day with occasional showers likely. As the front arrives later tomorrow night, there is likely to be a period of heavy rainfall going into the overnight hours along with possible strong thunderstorms. There can be some residual rain early Friday, but it’ll soon push off the east coast and temperatures will be some 10-15 degrees lower compared to the unusually warm conditions expected on Halloween Day. Even cooler air will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region by the latter part of the weekend and it looks like an overall cooler-than-normal weather pattern will continue through much of the first part of November. (By the way, this is the weekend in which we turn the clocks back an hour).
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High pressure will continue to produce onshore in the region and this will lead to patchy drizzle at times and relatively mild temperatures. A warm front will arrive on Wednesday increasing the chances for showers in the Mid-Atlantic region. A strong cold front will be situated to our west on Thursday, Halloween Day, and this will result in occasional showers with breezy and mild conditions. Later Thursday night, as the strong cold front arrives, heavy rainfall is likely and there can be strong-to-severe thunderstorms mixed in. It’ll turn cooler on Friday behind the front and then even cooler air arrives this weekend in what looks to be a cooler weather pattern setting up for the first part of November.
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High pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic for the next couple of days and we’ll start off the new work week with cool and rain-free conditions. A strong cold front will slowly trek across the nation over the next few days and it’ll arrive in the Great Lakes region by Thursday. As a result, Halloween Day (Thursday) around here may feature showers ahead of the cold front with breezy and mild conditions and heavy rain is possible late Thursday night into early Friday as the front arrives. Following the passage of the front at the end of the work week, cooler-than-normal air will push in for the upcoming weekend and it looks like the pattern may stay on the cool side as we progress through the first part of November.
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High pressure will remain in control of the weather around here into the weekend, but a couple of fronts will bring us some rainfall from later tomorrow into Sunday. Tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will merge with an eastward moving cold front over the next couple of days and produce significant rainfall from the northern Gulf to the Ohio Valley. As low pressure pulls to our northwest along the cold frontal boundary zone, a warm front will push northward later in the day on Saturday. This front could bring some scattered shower activity to the region tomorrow night and then the cold front will close in from west-to-east during the day on Sunday with occasional rain likely and it can be heavy at times. The low pressure will push off the coast on Sunday night paving the way for drier conditions as we begin the new work week.
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High pressure will remain in control of the weather around here for the next couple of days with generally cool and dry conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region. There will be an increasing chance for rain this weekend as low pressure pushes out of the Deep South and heads toward the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. As a result, a warm front will push northward into the Mid-Atlantic region later Saturday and the low pressure system will push a cold front in our direction on Sunday. Rain is likely to accompany both frontal systems from later Saturday into Sunday with the heaviest amounts likely to come on Sunday. The low pressure system will push off the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Sunday night and drier air will return for the early part of next week.
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The World Series between the Washington Nationals and Houston Astros began last night in Houston, Texas, but weather was not a factor. The Astros stadium known as Minute Maid Park has a retractable roof and it was closed last night for Game 1 which was won by the Nationals with a 5-4 score. The World Series will shift to Washington, D.C. on Friday night for Game 3 and then Games 4 and 5 (if necessary) are scheduled for Saturday night and Sunday night respectively.
From this vantage point, it appears the weather will be decent for Game 3 on Friday night with cool and dry conditions, but then rain could become a factor this weekend for Games 4 and/or 5. It does not appear that any of these three scheduled games in Washington, D.C. will be played under truly cold conditions as any significant cold air outbreak for the Mid-Atlantic region should hold off until later next week – perhaps in time for Halloween Day. Weather has indeed had a big impact on some World Series games in recent history in terms of both cold and precipitation.
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