An active weather pattern will bring us multiple chances for rain in coming days with the first opportunity coming from today into early tonight as a cool front passes through the region. High pressure will build back into the area on Thursday providing us with decent weather; however, this break in the action will be rather short-lived. Low pressure will bring more rain here later Friday into Saturday and then an even stronger system could result in a soaking rain event from later Sunday into Monday.
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Cold air outbreaks continue to work their way from Canada into the US as we wind down the month of April and it appears they will continue to do so right through the early part of May. As long as this kind of pattern holds, there will be an enhanced threat of severe weather outbreaks in the US and an increased chance for the formation of strong storm systems. In fact, more severe weather is possible on Wednesday in places like Texas and Oklahoma as cold, dry air advances from the west and clashes with entrenched warm, humid air across the south-central US. This severe weather threat will then shift eastward to Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama by Thursday afternoon.
Looking ahead, there are signs for a soaking rain event in the eastern US from Friday into Saturday and then a second and perhaps stronger system may form later in the weekend and produce more significant rain in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. This second storm system may feature some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity of its own in its warm sector from late Sunday into Monday and perhaps even some wet snow and/or ice on its cold side in some of the higher-elevation, interior spots of the northeastern US…just as we begin the month of May.
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High pressure will remain in control of the weather today and it’ll be dry, but also slightly colder-than-normal for this time of year. An approaching cold front can cause showers later tomorrow into tomorrow night and a thunderstorm may be generated as well. The late week and weekend are looking quite unsettled with rain possible late Friday/Friday night and then a strong storm could produce soaking rain here from later Sunday into Monday.
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Tropical activity is likely to be nearly normal this season in the Atlantic Basin with competing factors in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. In a normal Atlantic Basin tropical season, there are about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 of those actually attain “major” classification status (i.e., category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale).
The major factors involved with this year’s tropical outlook include the development of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean which generally acts to suppress activity in the Atlantic Basin due to increased wind shear. The development of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures comes after three years of La Nina conditions. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Ocean features plenty of warmer-than-normal water which is generally favorable for the development and/or intensification of tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Indeed, the warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature pattern in the western Atlantic Ocean makes the east coast somewhat more vulnerable than normal to what I like to call “home-grown” tropical hits during this upcoming tropical season.
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An initial cold front came through the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday night and then a secondary system passed through last night paving the way for relatively cool weather to start the new week. High pressure will push into the region today and stay in control of the weather through Tuesday, but showers can return on Wednesday afternoon. The threat of showers will continue for the late week and the weekend could end up featuring another soaking rain event for the Mid-Atlantic.
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High pressure remains in control today as we end the work week providing us with some sunshine and light winds. The main system of interest this weekend will be a strong cold front that’ll edge its way through the Ohio Valley on Saturday and then likely generate some soaking rainfall around here from late tomorrow into Saturday night. Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are a threat as well with this frontal passage and the time period of concern for the active weather in the metro region will be 4-11pm. It’ll turn cooler on Sunday following the passage of this initial cold front and then a secondary cold front will pass through Sunday night and usher in even cooler air for Monday.
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Cold air outbreaks from Canada into the US continue on a regular basis as we progress through the month of April and this has led to occasional accumulating snow across parts of the northern US and to severe weather outbreaks farther to the south. The leading edge of the latest cold air outbreak pushed into the middle of the nation last night resulting in some tornadic activity across Oklahoma and several inches of snow can fall later today/tonight in the Northern Plains. This strong cold front will slide across the Ohio Valley early Saturday and then impact the eastern states from later Saturday into Saturday night. The impact in the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC can include some heavy rainfall and there is the potential for severe thunderstorm activity as well.
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High pressure will remain in control in the Mid-Atlantic region through the day on Friday and temperatures should climb from the 60’s today to the 70’s on Friday. The main system of interest this weekend will be a strong cold front that’ll edge its way through the Ohio Valley on Saturday and then likely generate some soaking rainfall around here late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night…maybe even a strong thunderstorm. It’ll turn cooler on Sunday following the front and then a secondary cold front will usher even cooler air for Monday.
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High pressure will remain in control through the remainder of the work week with increasingly warm conditions. Temperatures today will climb into the 60’s after a chilly start, into the 70’s on Thursday, and then to the lower 80’s on Friday. The weekend will feature a strong cold front that edges this way from the Ohio Valley. This system is likely to generate some soaking rainfall around here on Saturday night and cooler, breezy conditions will follow for Sunday and Monday.
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A strong cold front pushed its way off the east coast on Monday and cooler, breezy conditions will follow for today. Temperatures will then rebound quite nicely later in the week likely reaching 80+ degrees for highs by Friday afternoon. Another strong cold front will cross the nation this weekend and likely bring some rain here from later Saturday into Sunday and cooler air will follow for the early part of next week.
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