December will begin with chilly conditions in the NYC metro region and quite likely some rainfall during the late afternoon and evening hours. Low pressure pushes towards the Great Lakes later in the day and its moisture field will advance in this direction resulting in some rain here and then a cold front passes through in the overnight hours. The weekend turns milder and there will be lots of clouds around on both days. There can be occasional light rain or drizzle this weekend as a couple of low pressure systems push this way from the southeastern states. Looking ahead, a “clipper” system will drop southeast from Canada next week and it could bring some snow and/or rain to the Mid-Atlantic region by mid-week.
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Temperatures will moderate some today under mostly sunny skies reaching seasonably chilly levels for the last day of November. Low pressure will approach the area on Friday and there can be some PM rainfall along with chilly conditions. Other waves of low pressure will move up from the south this weekend providing us with additional opportunities for rainfall in the NYC metro region and it’ll turn milder for both days.
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The first snowflakes of the season were seen by many in the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday and today’s early morning temperatures are at their lowest levels for most. This is not, however, the beginning of a sustained winter weather pattern as temperatures will return to more seasonal levels on Thursday and rain can fall here on Friday. It stays seasonally cool this weekend with lots of clouds and more rain is a possibility from a couple of different low pressure systems.
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The coldest air mass of the season so far becomes more firmly established across the region today and there can be some snow shower activity as well making its way all the way into the I-95 corridor from the eastern Great Lakes. The snow showers can hit at just about any time today and there can be quick small accumulations potentially resulting in briefly hazardous travel conditions. Temperatures should do no better than the upper 30’s for afternoon highs and then drop to the middle 20’s late tonight – the lowest levels this season - and persistently strong W-NW winds will produce even lower wind chills. It stays on the cold and breezy side on Wednesday, but a noticeable moderation in temperatures will take place for the late week and upcoming weekend and rain will once again become a threat in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Arctic air is charging across the Great Lakes today and right toward the Mid-Atlantic region. Winds will increase markedly later today in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor following the passage of a strong cold frontal system. As the Arctic air pushes across the still relatively warm waters of the eastern Great Lakes, lake-effect snows have developed and there will be several inches of accumulation in some of the places just downstream by the middle of the week. There can even be some snow shower and snow squall activity on Tuesday all the way into the I-95 corridor as the Arctic air mass becomes firmly established. In fact, quick small accumulations are on the table in the I-95 corridor which can make for hazardous travel conditions. Temperatures will reach the lowest levels of the season so far late tomorrow night in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and persistent winds will make it feel even colder than the actual air temperatures. A look at some teleconnection indices such as the NAO, AO and MJO suggest this Arctic outbreak will be rather short-lived and indeed, temperatures should moderate noticeably for the late week and weekend.
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Winds will increase markedly today with the arrival of a strong cold frontal system from our northwest. That front will usher in an Arctic air mass for Tuesday and Tuesday night with some of the lowest temperatures so far this season and snow showers cannot be ruled out around here. In fact, this cold air outbreak that pushes across the Great Lakes will result in significant lake effect snows in places just downstream of the still relatively warm lake waters. Temperatures will moderate later this week and another rain event is possible in the Mid-Atlantic region at the end of the week.
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High pressure edged into the Mid-Atlantic region late yesterday and it will be in control of the weather for today’s holiday providing us with some sunshine, breezy, cool and dry conditions. A (dry) cold front will pass through the area tomorrow night and usher in some chilly air for the upcoming weekend with temperatures holding at below-normal levels on Saturday and Sunday. It turns even colder for the first half of next week following the passage of another cold frontal system. One final note, there is likely to be a low pressure system just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline late in the upcoming weekend and it there is an outside chance that it spreads some precipitation into the I-95 corridor by Sunday night.
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After our soaking rain event, high pressure will edge into the region later today and take control of the weather in time for Thanksgiving Day. As such, skies should clear some during the day and we’ll be setting up for a cool, breezy and dry Turkey Day holiday. A (dry) cold front should pass through the area late Friday night paving the way for chilly weekend weather.
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The first widespread soaking rain event in several weeks is on the way for the Mid-Atlantic region and many spots can receive 1.50-2.50 inches by early tomorrow. The rain is likely to develop here during the mid-to-late afternoon hours and become heaviest and steadiest during the night. Strong low pressure will push to the eastern Great Lakes later today and the contrast with strong high pressure over northern New England will create a tight pressure gradient across the northeastern states. As a result, winds will become an important factor during this soaking rain event with gusts between 30 and 40 mph on the table from late today through tonight. High pressure builds back into the area at mid-week and the Thanksgiving Day holiday is looking cool, breezy and dry in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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After back-to-back-to-back La Nina (colder-than-normal water) winters, El Nino (warmer-than-normal water) has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and it will play an important role in the upcoming winter season across the nation as discussed in the Arcfield Weather 2023-2024 “Winter Outlook”. Two aspects of El Nino are important when it comes to its potential impact on winter weather patterns in the US and they include both its magnitude and location. Evidence continues to mount suggesting this El Nino event will not rival some of the strongest episodes in recent history such as in 2015-2016, 1997-1998 or 1982-1983. Instead, and as outlined in the “Winter Outlook”, it appears this El Nino will be one of moderate strength and will tend to weaken as we progress through the winter season. In terms of the location with respect to the greatest sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, the thought was that an “eastern-based” focus would shift to more of a “central-based” and recent developments suggest this transition may already be getting underway.
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