Several ingredients will come together late today and early tonight to produce the chance of severe thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region. The combination of an approaching cool front, higher heat and humidity, a strong low-level jet, and a vigorous upper-level trough will result in showers and thunderstorms from later this afternoon into the late evening hours and any storm can reach severe levels with potential damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and large hail. In addition, strong wind shear is expected to develop in this environment and this ingredient can result in isolated tornadoes; especially, across NE PA and NW NJ. The surface cool front will move offshore by early tomorrow morning paving the way for lowering humidity levels on Thursday to go along with decreasing cloud cover. Another cool front can bring somewhat of a repeat performance of this type of weather on Saturday night and Sunday with the chance of additional showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms.
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Several ingredients will come together late tomorrow and tomorrow night to produce the chance of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region. The combination of an approaching cool front, higher heat and humidity, a strong low-level jet, and an upper-level trough will likely result in showers and thunderstorms from later tomorrow into tomorrow night and any storm can reach strong-to-severe levels. The main threat should be damaging wind gusts; however, given the expected strong wind shear, there will also be the potential of isolated tornadoes; especially, over northeast PA and NW NJ.
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A cool front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region early Monday and ushered in a comfortable air mass featuring noticeably lower humidity levels than recent days and they’ll stay in the moderate zone today. It’ll turn hotter and more humid on Wednesday ahead of the next cool frontal system and that front is likely to produce afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region. Some of the PM thunderstorms on Wednesday can reach strong-to-severe levels. More comfortable air returns to the region on Thursday following the passage of the mid-week front and it stays comfortable into the weekend. Another front is likely to bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday night and Sunday.
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The most uncomfortable part of this current heat spell will come today, tomorrow and Sunday as there will be an increase in overall humidity levels and the heat as well. In addition, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase later today and that threat will last into the early part of next week. The increasing potential for rain over the next few days will come about with the increase in overall humidity levels and interaction with a couple of frontal systems. One such back door front will enter the picture later today from our northeast and then a second cool front will approach from the northwest late on Sunday. Any thunderstorm that forms over the next few days can bring heavy rainfall and produce locally damaging wind gusts. Looking ahead, little in the way of relief is expected next week with temperatures likely back to near 90 degrees on Monday and Tuesday for afternoon highs and then into the 90’s by the middle of next week.
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While quite warm this week in places like Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia, the worst of the heat and humidity is still to come. In fact, humidity levels have been rather manageable in these areas during the past few days limiting “heat indices” which are meant to reflect how weather conditions “feel” to humans given the heat and humidity. Large-scale upper-level ridging has been centered overhead during the past few days allowing for a bit of an onshore flow of air in places like D.C., Philly, and southern New Jersey, but that pattern will change in the Friday, Saturday, Sunday time frame resulting in higher heat and humidity. In addition, the chance of showers and storms will increase beginning later tomorrow and the threat of rain will continue this weekend and any storm that forms can produce locally heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts.
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Temperatures today should peak near the 95 degree mark for afternoon highs and then likely well up in the 90’s again on Friday, lower 90’s on Saturday, and then well up in the 90’s again on Sunday. A few different frontal systems will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday with the best chance likely late in the weekend at which time a cool front will be approaching from the northwest. Any thunderstorm that forms in this hot stretch can produce heavy rainfall and locally damaging wind gusts. The late weekend cool front gets hung up in the region early next week suggesting any relief is going to be minimal. In fact, high temperatures should climb to the 90 degree mark on Monday and Tuesday and probably into the 90’s by the middle of next week.
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High pressure ridging will dominate the weather scene during the next few days across the eastern states and this will lead to a continuation of very warm conditions right through the work week. Temperatures today should peak in the lower 90’s and middle 90’s are possible on Thursday and Friday. A couple different frontal systems will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region later Friday and the threat of rain will continue this weekend and early next week.
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High pressure ridging will dominate the weather scene during the next few days across the eastern states and this will lead to a stretch of very warm conditions right through the upcoming weekend. The peak of this upcoming hot spell is likely to be on Thursday and Friday with the mid-to-upper 90’s possible for afternoon highs and then some relief is likely by early next week with the arrival of a cool frontal system. In terms of rainfall, a shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out late Friday and then the chance will tend to increase this weekend ahead of the approaching frontal system.
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High pressure will build in all levels of the atmosphere across the eastern half of the nation over the next 24 hours and this will lead to the hottest stretch of weather so far this season. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80’s today and then well into the 90’s for the remainder of the week and upcoming weekend. This hot stretch of weather will likely come rain-free with the next chance for showers and storms perhaps not coming until late in the weekend.
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Washington, D.C. reached the 90 degree mark on Thursday for only the first time this month, but that is about to change in a big way as an extended hot spell is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region. The hot stretch begins early next week, but before we get there we’ll have to deal with possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and early tonight and these will be followed by a comfortable Father’s Day weekend with lower humidity.
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