Strong-to-severe thunderstorms pushed through the Mid-Atlantic region last night along a cold frontal system that has led the way for another comfortable air mass for the middle of June. Hail was reported with many of last night’s storms and some spots received heavy rainfall and lots of cloud-to-ground lightning. In the wake of the frontal passage, the next few days will be quite nice with pleasant days and cool overnights featuring low temperatures down in the 50’s. At the same time we’re enjoying comfortable weather conditions in the Northeast US, much of the western US is suffering through some excessive heat as upper-level high pressure ridging expands and intensifies over that part of the nation. Elsewhere, it looks like the Gulf of Mexico will feature a tropical system by this weekend. Early signs point to a movement towards Louisiana or Texas and then its precipitation shield is likely to turn to the northeast. Whether this tropical system’s leftover rainfall makes it this far north and east next week is still a little too early to call.
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An unstable atmosphere and an approaching frontal system are raising the chances for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity late today and tonight in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. There is already one line of strong storms pushing eastward into central PA and central NY and other lines are likely to develop during this threat time period which could continue until midnight or so. The storms are moving quickly enough to reduce somewhat the chances of torrential rainfall amounts like we experienced last week; however, damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes are severe weather threats with this particular setup all the way from Washington, D.C. to New York City.
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The week will start off with comfortable temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region, but an approaching cold front will likely result in scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and/or evening hours...some of the storms can be on the strong side. Another cold front will pass through at mid-week ushering in more comfortable air for the northeastern part of the nation. At the same time the Northeast US/Great Lakes enjoys comfortable weather conditions, much of the western US will experience excessive heat as upper-level high pressure ridging expands and intensifies over that part of the nation. Elsewhere, it looks like the Gulf of Mexico will feature a tropical system by late this week or early this weekend and it may ultimately head towards Louisiana.
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A cold front grudgingly pushed through the region yesterday and its passage has ushered in noticeably cooler air to end the work week. This frontal passage, however, has not ended our rain threat as it has stalled-out just to the south and low pressure has formed along its boundary zone generating additional showers for the region. The weekend will start off with pretty decent weather as high pressure returns, but the next cold front should generate some shower and thunderstorm activity for late Sunday and Sunday night. Looking ahead, a rather refreshing and cooler-than-normal air mass will push into the Northeast US by the middle of next week at the same time the Southwest US experiences some extreme heat. This pattern change will be the result of a vigorous upper-level low that will drop southeastward from Canada into the Northeast US at the same time strong high pressure ridging builds into the southwestern states. In addition, there is likely to be the first tropical activity of the young Atlantic Basin season by later next over the Gulf of Mexico.
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A cold front will work its way through the region this morning and then stall out just to the south of here. There will some drying in the atmosphere today which will greatly reduce the chance for showers and thunderstorms; especially, across the far northern suburbs. It turns cooler on Friday with highs in the lower 70's and the weekend will begin with a decent day on Saturday. The next cold front can bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region late in the upcoming weekend.
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The combination of a very moist air mass, a southward-advancing cold front, and an unstable atmosphere is resulting in more shower and thunderstorm activity for the Mid-Atlantic region. Any shower or thunderstorm that hits a given area later today/early tonight can produce flash flooding conditions given the general slow movement and the abundance of available moisture. Late yesterday and early last night, the “bulls eye” of the heaviest rainfall took place in Chester County, PA, but today’s threat will extend southward to southern New Jersey, the Delmarva Peninsula, and the DC metro region.
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It’ll remain very humid today in the Philly metro region and there will again be the chance for PM showers and thunderstorms. Any shower or thunderstorm later today can produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding conditions as they will be slow movers and there is a tremendous amount of available low-level moisture. A cold front will cross the region later tonight and usher in slightly cooler air for the late week; however, it will stall just to our south. As low pressure systems move across the stalled out frontal boundary zone, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue in the Mid-Atlantic region through Friday, but at least part of the upcoming weekend looks rather promising.
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It’ll remain very humid today in the Philly metro region and there will be the chance for late day/evening showers and thunderstorms. Any shower or thunderstorm later today can produce some heavy rainfall as they will likely be slow movers and there is an abundance of available low-level moisture. A cold front will cross the region tomorrow night and usher in slightly cooler air for the late week; however, it will stall just to our south. As low pressure systems move across the stalled out frontal boundary zone later in the week, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Our first extended stretch of very warm and humid weather will continue for the next few days with afternoon temperatures not far from 90 degrees right through mid-week. The main weather maker is a strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean which is pumping in the very warm and humid air mass from the southeastern states into the Mid-Atlantic region. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist each day through this very warm period given the high levels of low-level moisture. The highest chance for rain will come during the PM hours over the next few days and any shower or thunderstorm can produce some heavy rainfall. It turns cooler later in the week following the passage of a cold front.
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An upper-level trough of low pressure remains to our west this morning and it’ll help to keep it unsettled around here today with additional showers and thunderstorms possible. High pressure will build into the eastern states early this weekend and then move to a classic summertime “Bermuda high” location by early next week. As a result, hot, increasingly humid, and downright summer-like weather is likely here from the weekend through the middle of next week with daily highs at or above the 90 degree mark.
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