Tropical activity is likely to be nearly normal this season in the Atlantic Basin with competing factors in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. In a normal Atlantic Basin tropical season, there are about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 of those actually attain “major” classification status (i.e., category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale).
The major factors involved with this year’s tropical outlook include the development of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean which generally acts to suppress activity in the Atlantic Basin due to increased wind shear. The development of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures comes after three years of La Nina conditions. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Ocean features plenty of warmer-than-normal water which is generally favorable for the development and/or intensification of tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Indeed, the warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature pattern in the western Atlantic Ocean makes the east coast somewhat more vulnerable than normal to what I like to call “home-grown” tropical hits during this upcoming tropical season.
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An initial cold front came through the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday night and then a secondary system passed through last night paving the way for even cooler air as we begin the new work week. Temperatures here today will likely hold in the 50’s for afternoon highs and the 30’s later tonight can result in some patchy frost across suburban locations. High pressure will push into the region today and stay in control of the weather for the next couple of days, but showers will threaten by Wednesday afternoon and the weekend can feature another soaking rain event.
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Soaking rain is on the way for the Mid-Atlantic region and there is a threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity as well from later today into tonight. The greatest risk of severe weather will be in the DC-to-Philly corridor with lesser chances across New York City. The main severe weather hazard with this advancing strong cold front will be damaging wind gusts, but hail and even isolated tornadoes are on the table. The front pushes off the east coast by early Sunday paving the way for a cooler and breezy finish to the weekend and a secondary cold front will pass through on Sunday night paving the way for even cooler conditions on Monday.
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High pressure remains in control today as we end the work week providing us with some sunshine, light winds and warm conditions. The main system of interest this weekend will be a strong cold front that’ll edge its way through the Ohio Valley on Saturday and then likely generate some heavy rainfall around here from later tomorrow into Saturday night. Severe thunderstorms are a threat as well with this frontal system and the time period of concern for the active weather in the metro region will be 3-11pm. It’ll turn cooler on Sunday following the passage of this initial cold front and then a secondary cold front will pass through Sunday night and usher in even cooler air for Monday.
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Cold air outbreaks from Canada into the US continue on a regular basis as we progress through the month of April and this has led to occasional accumulating snow across parts of the northern US and to severe weather outbreaks farther to the south. The leading edge of the latest cold air outbreak pushed into the middle of the nation last night resulting in some tornadic activity across Oklahoma and several inches of snow can fall later today/tonight in the Northern Plains. This strong cold front will slide across the Ohio Valley early Saturday and then impact the eastern states from later Saturday into Saturday night. The impact in the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC can include some heavy rainfall and there is the potential for severe thunderstorm activity as well.
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High pressure will remain in control in the Mid-Atlantic region through the day on Friday and it’ll become warmer. Temperatures today should climb to well up in the 70’s and the low-to-mid 80’s are possible on Friday. The main system of interest this weekend will be a strong cold front that’ll edge its way through the Ohio Valley on Saturday and then likely generate some soaking rainfall around here later Saturday into Saturday night…maybe even a strong-to-severe thunderstorm. It’ll turn cooler on Sunday following the front and then a secondary cold front will usher even cooler air for Monday.
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High pressure will remain in control through the remainder of the work week with increasingly warm conditions. Temperatures today will climb into the 60’s after a chilly start, into the 70’s on Thursday, and then well up into the 80’s on Friday. The weekend will feature a strong cold front that edges this way from the Ohio Valley. This system is likely to generate some soaking rainfall around here on Saturday night and cooler, breezy conditions will follow for Sunday and Monday.
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A strong cold front pushed its way off the east coast on Monday and cooler, breezy conditions will follow for today and tomorrow. Temperatures will then rebound quite nicely on Thursday and Friday likely reaching 80 degrees on Thursday for highs and the middle 80’s on Friday. Another strong cold front will cross the nation this weekend and likely bring some rain here from later Saturday into Sunday and cooler air will follow for the early part of next week.
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The Phillies are scheduled to play the White Sox tonight in Chicago, but the day has started there with snow, temperatures near freezing and wind chills in the teens. In fact, snow is falling today across much of the Upper Midwest from Minnesota-to-Michigan on the north side to Illinois and Indiana to the south. Unfortunately, for those waiting on spring, it appears there will be additional cold air outbreaks across the northern US during the next couple of weeks and this will continue the threat of accumulating snow in many sections from the Rocky Mountain States to the interior Northeast US. The next cold air outbreak will arrive in the nation’s midsection by the upcoming weekend and the cold front at its leading edge could generate heavy rainfall in the eastern US from late Saturday into Sunday.
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A strong cold front will push its way off the coast today and it turns cooler and breezy in the Mid-Atlantic region on the heels of the frontal passage. High pressure builds into the area and should generate generally dry conditions around here for the next few days. As the high pushes to our east later this week, temperatures will rebound noticeably likely to climb into the 80’s by week’s end. Another cold frontal system will impact the weather here this weekend with showers likely surrounding its passage through the Mid-Atlantic region.
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