The coldest air mass of the season so far becomes more firmly established across the region today and there can be some snow shower activity as well making its way all the way into the I-95 corridor from the eastern Great Lakes. The snow showers can hit at just about any time today and there can be quick small accumulations potentially resulting in briefly hazardous travel conditions. Temperatures should do no better than the mid-to-upper 30’s for afternoon highs and then drop to the lower 20’s late tonight – the lowest levels this season - and persistently strong W-NW winds will produce even lower wind chills. It stays on the cold and breezy side on Wednesday, but a noticeable moderation in temperatures will take place for the late week and upcoming weekend and rain will once again become a threat in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Arctic air is charging across the Great Lakes today and right toward the Mid-Atlantic region. Winds will increase markedly later today in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor following the passage of a strong cold frontal system. As the Arctic air pushes across the still relatively warm waters of the eastern Great Lakes, lake-effect snows have developed and there will be several inches of accumulation in some of the places just downstream by the middle of the week. There can even be some snow shower and snow squall activity on Tuesday all the way into the I-95 corridor as the Arctic air mass becomes firmly established. In fact, quick small accumulations are on the table in the I-95 corridor which can make for hazardous travel conditions. Temperatures will reach the lowest levels of the season so far late tomorrow night in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and persistent winds will make it feel even colder than the actual air temperatures. A look at some teleconnection indices such as the NAO, AO and MJO suggest this Arctic outbreak will be rather short-lived and indeed, temperatures should moderate noticeably for the late week and weekend.
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Winds will increase markedly today with the arrival of a strong cold frontal system from our northwest. That front will usher in an Arctic air mass for Tuesday and Tuesday night with some of the lowest temperatures so far this season and snow showers cannot be ruled out around here. In fact, this cold air outbreak that pushes across the Great Lakes will result in significant lake effect snows in places just downstream of the still relatively warm lake waters. Temperatures will moderate later this week and another rain event is possible in the Mid-Atlantic region at the end of the week.
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High pressure edged into the Mid-Atlantic region late yesterday and it will be in control of the weather for today’s holiday providing us with some sunshine, breezy, cool and dry conditions. A (dry) cold front will pass through the area tomorrow night and usher in some chilly air for the upcoming weekend with temperatures holding at below-normal levels on Saturday and Sunday. It turns even colder for the first half of next week following the passage of another cold frontal system. One final note, there is likely to be a low pressure system just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline late in the upcoming weekend and it there is an outside chance that it spreads some precipitation into the I-95 corridor by Sunday night.
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After our soaking rain event, high pressure will edge into the region later today and take control of the weather in time for Thanksgiving Day. As such, skies should clear some during the day and we’ll be setting up for a cool, breezy and dry Turkey Day holiday. A (dry) cold front should pass through the area late Friday night paving the way for chilly weekend weather.
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The first widespread soaking rain event in several weeks is on the way for the Mid-Atlantic region and most spots should receive 1.50-2.50 inches by early tomorrow morning. The rain is likely to begin here during the mid-day or early afternoon and the heaviest, steadiest comes from late afternoon through much of tonight. Strong low pressure will push to the eastern Great Lakes later today and the contrast with strong high pressure over northern New England will create a tight pressure gradient across the northeastern states. As a result, winds will become an important factor during this soaking rain event with gusts between 30 and 40 mph on the table from later today through tonight. High pressure builds back into the area at mid-week and the Thanksgiving Day holiday is looking cool, breezy and dry in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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After back-to-back-to-back La Nina (colder-than-normal water) winters, El Nino (warmer-than-normal water) has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and it will play an important role in the upcoming winter season across the nation as discussed in the Arcfield Weather 2023-2024 “Winter Outlook”. Two aspects of El Nino are important when it comes to its potential impact on winter weather patterns in the US and they include both its magnitude and location. Evidence continues to mount suggesting this El Nino event will not rival some of the strongest episodes in recent history such as in 2015-2016, 1997-1998 or 1982-1983. Instead, and as outlined in the “Winter Outlook”, it appears this El Nino will be one of moderate strength and will tend to weaken as we progress through the winter season. In terms of the location with respect to the greatest sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, the thought was that an “eastern-based” focus would shift to more of a “central-based” and recent developments suggest this transition may already be getting underway.
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The big weather story of the week in the Mid-Atlantic region will be the soaking rain event that takes place from later tomorrow into early Wednesday as strong low pressure pushes into the Great Lakes region. It has been very dry in recent weeks, but this system should produce an inch or more of rain throughout the area by early Wednesday morning. It appeared last week that there would be an influx of unseasonably cold air into the Mid-Atlantic region on the back side of this storm, but that no longer appears to be the case. Instead, Turkey Day should be dry and cool with only slightly below-normal temperatures for this time of year. The weather becomes unsettled again at week’s end and for the upcoming weekend and it looks like it will be on the chilly side. One final note and for the Eagles fans out there, it looks like miserable weather tonight for the rematch with the Chiefs in Kansas City…windy, cold, periods of rain.
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It turned noticeably milder in the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday as high pressure shifted offshore and the mild conditions will continue today ahead of an incoming frontal system. The front will set off some shower activity tonight, but – as has been the case in recent weeks – this will not be a significant rain event. Colder air pushes into the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend on the heels of the frontal passage. Looking ahead, a strong storm system will head to the Midwest/Great Lakes during the first half of next week and likely result in rain and wind here from Tuesday into Wednesday - and this time the rainfall may be significant.
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A widespread and impressively cold air mass will cross the nation next week and reach the eastern seaboard in time for Thanksgiving Day (Thursday). A strong storm system will develop out ahead of the incoming cold air mass and it will impact a large part of the nation with rain, snow and wind on the busy travel days of Tuesday and Wednesday.
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