It remains on the cool and unsettled side today in the Mid-Atlantic region with an upper-level trough of low pressure hanging near the eastern seaboard. High pressure builds in at mid-week and controls the weather through the day on Thursday. After that, it looks like a storm will begin to take shape in the eastern states at the end of the week and ultimately, this system should become quite strong as it reaches the New England area. As a result, showers will be possible here on Friday and Saturday and then the second half of the weekend will likely feature very gusty winds on the backside of the low and quite cool conditions.
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A major change has come to the tropical Pacific Ocean since last winter with respect to sea surface temperatures and this transformation will have a big impact on the upcoming winter. Specifically, above-normal sea surface temperatures (El Nino) have replaced the cooler-than-normal conditions (La Nina) of the previous winter. In fact, the tropical Pacific Ocean uncommonly featured “back-to-back-to-back” La Nina winters with cooler-than-normal water temperatures, but drastic changes began to take shape earlier this year.
The return of El Nino to the tropical Pacific Ocean increases the chance for a “blockbuster” snowstorm (or two) in the eastern US which hasn’t happened in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor since January 2016 when up to two feet of snow fell near all the big cities along I-95. In an El Nino winter, the strongest part of the jet stream tends to shift southward and extends farther east across the Pacific Ocean. As a result, this southern or Pacific sub-tropical branch of the jet stream can steer storms into the southern and eastern US with enhanced moisture content.
The temperature pattern across the nation in an El Nino winter is largely influenced by the magnitude of the El Nino as well as its ultimate location in the equatorial Pacific (i.e., central, or east based). It appears to me this will be kind of hybrid El Nino in terms of its location with the warmest water “relative-to-normal” in eastern sections near the west coast of South America early on this winter season and then becoming focused over central sections of the tropical Pacific.
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Chilly conditions in the Tennessee Valley will greet the new work week with the intrusion of a cool air mass on the heels of a frontal passage. In fact, temperatures late tonight and drop to the lower 40’s for overnight lows…well below-normal for this time of year. High pressure builds into the region at mid-week and a slow warming trend will begin.
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An upper-level low pressure trough hangs along the eastern seaboard for the next couple of days keeping it cool and somewhat unsettled around with the threat of isolated showers. High pressure builds in at mid-week and pushes off the coast later in the week. Another storm system looks to take a run at the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US late in the week and into the weekend which would continue a recent trend that has featured rain and cool conditions for at least part of the weekend.
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An upper-level low pressure trough hangs along the eastern seaboard for the next couple of days keeping it cool and somewhat unsettled around with the threat of isolated showers. High pressure builds in at mid-week and pushes off the coast later in the week. Another storm system looks to take a run at the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US late in the week and into the weekend which would continue a recent trend that has featured rain and cool conditions for at least part of the weekend.
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An upper-level low pressure trough hangs along the eastern seaboard for the next couple of days keeping it cool and somewhat unsettled around with the threat of isolated showers. High pressure builds in at mid-week and pushes off the coast later in the week. Another storm system looks to take a run at the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US late in the week and into the weekend which would continue a recent trend that has featured rain and cool conditions for at least part of the weekend.
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Another wet and cool Saturday is on the way to the Mid-Atlantic region which continues a recent trend. Low pressure will push to the Ohio Valley by early tomorrow and then it will give way to a secondary storm system that is to form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. As a result, occasional rain is likely here on Saturday and Saturday night and it will become unseasonably cool as well with a persistent onshore flow of air (E-NE winds)…a similar pattern to some prior weekends. The weather may not get much better on Sunday as the parent upper-level low will be a very slow mover. Consequently, showers will remain a threat early and temperatures should stay well below-normal on Sunday for the middle of October. In fact, it looks like the first half of next week will remain quite cool and unsettled with the continuing threat of showers underneath the very slow moving upper-level trough.
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Today and Saturday will feature temperatures reaching the 70’s in northern Alabama, but a frontal passage on Saturday night will bring cooler conditions to the area. Highs on Sunday are likely to be confined to the lower 60’s and there will likely be some stubborn clouds in the area.
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Another wet and cool weekend is on the way to the Mid-Atlantic region which continues a recent trend. Low pressure will push to the Ohio Valley by early tomorrow and then it will give way to a secondary storm system that is to form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. As a result, occasional rain is likely here on Saturday and Saturday night and it will become unseasonably cool as well with a persistent onshore flow of air (E-NE winds)…a similar pattern to some prior weekends. The weather may not get much better on Sunday as the parent upper-level low will be a very slow mover. Consequently, showers will remain a threat early and temperatures should stay well below-normal on Sunday for the middle of October. In fact, it looks like the first half of next week will remain quite cool and unsettled with the continuing threat of showers underneath the very slow moving upper-level trough.
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Another wet and cool weekend is on the way to the Mid-Atlantic region which continues a recent trend. Low pressure will push to the Ohio Valley by early tomorrow and then it will give way to a secondary storm system that is to form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. As a result, occasional rain is likely here on Saturday and Saturday night and it will become unseasonably cool as well with a persistent onshore flow of air (E-NE winds)…a similar pattern to some prior weekends. The weather may not get much better on Sunday as the parent upper-level low will be a very slow mover. Consequently, showers will remain a threat early and temperatures should stay well below-normal on Sunday for the middle of October. In fact, it looks like the first half of next week will remain quite cool and unsettled with the continuing threat of showers underneath the very slow moving upper-level trough.
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