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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

7:00 AM | ***A widespread soaking rain event on the way for the Philly metro region***

Paul Dorian

The first widespread soaking rain event in several weeks is on the way for the Mid-Atlantic region and most spots should receive 1.50-2.50 inches by early tomorrow morning. The rain is likely to begin here during the mid-day or early afternoon and the heaviest, steadiest comes from late afternoon through much of tonight. Strong low pressure will push to the eastern Great Lakes later today and the contrast with strong high pressure over northern New England will create a tight pressure gradient across the northeastern states. As a result, winds will become an important factor during this soaking rain event with gusts between 30 and 40 mph on the table from later today through tonight. High pressure builds back into the area at mid-week and the Thanksgiving Day holiday is looking cool, breezy and dry in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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7:00 AM | **Still quite unsettled weather today across the Tennessee Valley...quiets down in time for Turkey Day**

Paul Dorian

A strong storm system will continue to impact the region on Tuesday with lingering showers likely and winds will remain an important factor as well.  Also, there is enough instability around that the chance of a strong thunderstorm is on the table; especially, north of the I-20 corridor later today. The threat of rain will diminish tonight and Wednesday and the Thursday holiday is shaping up pretty nicely weather wise.

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7:00 AM | ***A widespread soaking rain event on the way for the DC metro region***

Paul Dorian

The first widespread soaking rain event in several weeks is on the way for the Mid-Atlantic region and most spots should receive 1.50-2.50 inches by early tomorrow morning. The rain is likely to begin here during the mid-morning and the heaviest, steadiest comes during the afternoon and evening hours. Strong low pressure will push to the eastern Great Lakes later today and the contrast with strong high pressure over northern New England will create a tight pressure gradient across the northeastern states. As a result, winds will become an important factor during this soaking rain event with gusts between 30 and 40 mph on the table from later today through tonight. High pressure builds back into the area at mid-week and the Thanksgiving Day holiday is looking cool, breezy and dry in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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7:00 AM | ***A widespread soaking rain event for the NYC metro region***

Paul Dorian

The first widespread soaking rain event in several weeks is on the way for the Mid-Atlantic region and many spots can receive 1.50-2.50 inches by early tomorrow. The rain is likely to develop here during the mid-to-late afternoon hours and become heaviest and steadiest during the night. Strong low pressure will push to the eastern Great Lakes later today and the contrast with strong high pressure over northern New England will create a tight pressure gradient across the northeastern states. As a result, winds will become an important factor during this soaking rain event with gusts between 30 and 40 mph on the table from late today through tonight. High pressure builds back into the area at mid-week and the Thanksgiving Day holiday is looking cool, breezy and dry in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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12:00 PM | *Interesting recent developments with respect to El Nino in the tropical Pacific*

Paul Dorian

After back-to-back-to-back La Nina (colder-than-normal water) winters, El Nino (warmer-than-normal water) has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and it will play an important role in the upcoming winter season across the nation as discussed in the Arcfield Weather 2023-2024 “Winter Outlook”. Two aspects of El Nino are important when it comes to its potential impact on winter weather patterns in the US and they include both its magnitude and location. Evidence continues to mount suggesting this El Nino event will not rival some of the strongest episodes in recent history such as in 2015-2016, 1997-1998 or 1982-1983. Instead, and as outlined in the “Winter Outlook”, it appears this El Nino will be one of moderate strength and will tend to weaken as we progress through the winter season. In terms of the location with respect to the greatest sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, the thought was that an “eastern-based” focus would shift to more of a “central-based” and recent developments suggest this transition may already be getting underway.

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7:00 AM | **Finally...a soaking rainfall coming to the Mid-Atlantic region**

Paul Dorian

The big weather story of the week in the Mid-Atlantic region will be the soaking rain event that takes place from later tomorrow into early Wednesday as strong low pressure pushes into the Great Lakes region. It has been very dry in recent weeks, but this system should produce an inch or more of rain throughout the area by early Wednesday morning. It appeared last week that there would be an influx of unseasonably cold air into the Mid-Atlantic region on the back side of this storm, but that no longer appears to be the case. Instead, Turkey Day should be dry and cool with only slightly below-normal temperatures for this time of year. The weather becomes unsettled again at week’s end and for the upcoming weekend and it looks like it will be on the chilly side.

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7:00 AM | ***Threat of showers and thunderstorms increases by tonight and continues on Tuesday...winds to become a major factor from this evening into early Tuesday***

Paul Dorian

Strong upper-level low pressure will push towards the Tennessee Valley today and increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms by tonight and the threat of rain will continue on Tuesday. Some of the rain tonight can be heavy at times; especially, during possible strong thunderstorm activity. Winds will also become an important factor during this event with gusts to 50 mph on the table for tonight. Dry weather should return later tomorrow into Thursday with the holiday looking dry and cool with highs well up in the 50’s.

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7:00 AM | **Finally...a soaking rainfall coming to the Mid-Atlantic region**

Paul Dorian

The big weather story of the week in the Mid-Atlantic region will be the soaking rain event that takes place from later tomorrow into early Wednesday as strong low pressure pushes into the Great Lakes region. It has been very dry in recent weeks, but this system should produce an inch or more of rain throughout the area by early Wednesday morning. It appeared last week that there would be an influx of unseasonably cold air into the Mid-Atlantic region on the back side of this storm, but that no longer appears to be the case. Instead, Turkey Day should be dry and cool with only slightly below-normal temperatures for this time of year. The weather becomes unsettled again at week’s end and for the upcoming weekend and it looks like it will be on the chilly side. One final note and for the Eagles fans out there, it looks like miserable weather tonight for the rematch with the Chiefs in Kansas City…windy, cold, periods of rain.

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7:00 AM | **Finally...a soaking rainfall coming to the Mid-Atlantic region**

Paul Dorian

The big weather story of the week in the Mid-Atlantic region will be the soaking rain event that takes place from later tomorrow into early Wednesday as strong low pressure pushes into the Great Lakes region. It has been very dry in recent weeks, but this system should produce an inch or more of rain throughout the area by early Wednesday morning. It appeared last week that there would be an influx of unseasonably cold air into the Mid-Atlantic region on the back side of this storm, but that no longer appears to be the case. Instead, Turkey Day should be dry and cool with only slightly below-normal temperatures for this time of year. The weather becomes unsettled again at week’s end and for the upcoming weekend and it looks like it will be on the chilly side.

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7:00 AM | *Dry, cool weekend coming to the Tennessee Valley...frost possible late tomorrow night*

Paul Dorian

It stays unsettled in the region today with the chance of afternoon showers as moist air pushes in on low-level southeasterly winds. A cold front moves through the area on Friday night and its passage will pave the way for a cool, but dry weekend in the northern part of Alabama. Widespread frost is possible late Saturday night/early Sunday morning as temperatures should drop to near the freezing mark.

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