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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

*Arctic sea ice continues to show resiliency…nearly normal temperatures in summer (melting) season holds the key to its holding firm...possible important role of water vapor*

Paul Dorian

Temperatures are currently running at warmer-than-normal levels in the Arctic region (not shown) during this late stage of the winter season with actual air temperatures generally well below the freezing mark. This above-normal trend in temperatures during the cold season in the Arctic region has been quite consistent during the past many years. Meanwhile, temperatures during the past several summer months of June, July and August have been nearly normal and this is especially important with respect to Arctic sea ice as this is the melting season in the Arctic region when actual air temperatures can average right near or even slightly above the freezing mark. As long as temperatures in the Arctic region remain nearly normal during the summer (melting) season, the chance for a significant drop off in sea ice will be limited. Indeed, given this consistent temperature trend in recent decades, Arctic sea ice has shown resiliency both in terms extent and in volume. One possible explanation of this persistent temperature pattern across the Arctic region with nearly normal summertime conditions and warmer-than-normal in the other nine months of the year (i.e., the cold season) can be increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere.

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7:00 AM | *A warm week for the Tennessee Valley*

Paul Dorian

A warm week is coming to the Tennessee Valley, but it will be quite unsettled as well. There will be multiple chances for rain including later today and tonight and thunderstorms can mix into the picture as well. Low pressure will push from Texas to the Tennessee Valley region later tonight bringing this initial chance for rain which will extend into Tuesday as a cool front slides through the area.

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7:00 AM | *Dry, breezy, cool next few days*

Paul Dorian

The next few days will generally be dry, breezy and cool in the metro area, but nearby mountains can feature daily snow shower activity. Later in the week, precipitation is likely to become more widespread and a colder air mass will filter into the area.

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7:00 AM | *A parade of storms this week for the Mid-Atlantic region*

Paul Dorian

The upcoming week looks quite mild, but also very unsettled with multiple chances for rain and a parade of storm systems to deal with in the NYC metro region. Low pressure will track along the coast late tonight and Tuesday bringing with it a good chance of rain to the area. An even stronger low pressure system will impact the region from later Wednesday into early Thursday with additional rainfall. The unsettled pattern will not end there as an additional threat for rain comes this weekend and it’ll turn somewhat colder as well in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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7:00 AM | *A parade of storms this week for the Mid-Atlantic region*

Paul Dorian

The upcoming week looks quite mild, but also very unsettled with multiple chances for rain and a parade of storm systems to deal with in the DC metro region. Low pressure will track along the coast late tonight and Tuesday bringing with it a good chance of rain to the area. An even stronger low pressure system will impact the region from later Wednesday into early Thursday with additional rainfall. The unsettled pattern will not end there as an additional threat for rain comes this weekend and it’ll turn somewhat colder as well in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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7:00 AM | *A parade of storms this week for the Mid-Atlantic region*

Paul Dorian

The upcoming week looks quite mild, but also very unsettled with multiple chances for rain and a parade of storm systems to deal with in the Philly metro region. Low pressure will track along the coast late tonight and Tuesday bringing with it a good chance of rain to the area. An even stronger low pressure system will impact the region from later Wednesday into early Thursday with additional rainfall. The unsettled pattern will not end there as an additional threat for rain comes this weekend and it’ll turn somewhat colder as well in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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7:00 AM | *Some rain from later tonight into tomorrow...back to near 60 degrees by Sunday afternoon*

Paul Dorian

An area of low pressure will likely produce some rain around here from later tonight into mid-day on Saturday, but improvement is on the way for Sunday. In fact, the second half of the weekend should feature mild conditions with high temperatures on Sunday afternoon not far from the 60 degree mark. It stays on the mild side early next week, but there will be an increasing chance of showers by Tuesday and the threat of rain may last into mid-week.

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7:00 AM | *Some rain later tonight into tomorrow...back to the 60's by Sunday afternoon*

Paul Dorian

An area of low pressure will likely produce some rain around here from later tonight into mid-day on Saturday, but improvement is on the way for Sunday. In fact, the second half of the weekend should feature some sunshine and mild conditions with high temperatures on Sunday afternoon in the low-to-mid 60’s. It stays on the mild side early next week, but there will be an increasing chance of showers by Tuesday and the threat of rain may last into mid-week.

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7:00 AM | *Some rain later tonight into tomorrow...back to 60 degrees by Sunday afternoon*

Paul Dorian

An area of low pressure will likely produce some rain around here from later tonight into mid-day on Saturday, but improvement is on the way for Sunday. In fact, the second half of the weekend should feature some sunshine and mild conditions with high temperatures on Sunday afternoon not far from the 60 degree mark. It stays on the mild side early next week, but there will be an increasing chance of showers by Tuesday and the threat of rain may last into mid-week.

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