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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

6:30 AM | ***Rainy, very windy, and unseasonably mild today...turning sharply colder later tonight following the passage of a strong cold front***

Paul Dorian

The combination of an intensifying surface low pressure system, a strong cold front, and a deepening upper-level trough will result in the biggest rain event around here since early June. Rainfall amounts by later tonight can exceed 2 inches all along the I-95 corridor and a few thunderstorms can mix into the picture as well.  In addition to the rain, the winds will become an important factor; especially, along coastal sections where a low-level jet is going to become quite intense by later today. The passage of the strong cold front later this evening will result in another cold blast for the region with temperatures on Thursday and Friday well below-normal for this time of year.

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6:30 AM | ***Rainy, windy, unseasonably mild through mid-day...turning sharply colder later today and tonight following the passage of a strong cold front***

Paul Dorian

The combination of an intensifying surface low pressure system, a strong cold front, and a deepening upper-level trough will result in additional heavy rainfall across the area and there can be a thunderstorm mixed into the picture. The passage of a cold front later today will reverse temperatures from the early day highs in the 60’s to the middle 40’s by day’s end. Much colder-than-normal air will ride in on strong NW winds during the overnight hours and temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be well below-normal for this time of year. One final note, as the initial burst of cold air pours into the late today/early tonight, there can be a brief period of snow or snow showers and small accumulations cannot be ruled out in some of the far N/W suburbs.

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6:30 AM | **Rainy, windy, and unseasonably mild today...turning sharply colder tonight following the passage of a strong cold front**

Paul Dorian

The combination of an intensifying surface low pressure system, a strong cold front, and a deepening upper-level trough will result in the biggest rain event around here since early June. Rainfall amounts by later tonight can exceed 2 inches all along the I-95 corridor and a few thunderstorms can mix into the picture as well.  In addition to the rain, the winds will become an important factor; especially, along coastal sections where a low-level jet is going to become quite intense by later today and early tonight. The passage of the strong cold front later this evening will result in another cold blast for the region with temperatures on Thursday and Friday well below-normal for this time of year. One final note, as the initial burst of cold air pours into the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday evening, there can be a brief period of snow and small accumulations cannot be ruled out in some of the N/W suburbs.

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***Biggest rain event in several months...thunderstorms may mix in...powerful winds are possible; especially, along coastal sections...cold blast to follow and perhaps a touch of snow***

Paul Dorian

There was some rainfall in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor on Monday which was certainly a welcome happening; however, overall totals were on the low side due to the quick movement of the low pressure system. The rain event coming from late Tuesday night through Wednesday will be quite a different story, however, and likely the biggest single rainstorm in this area since early June. Rainfall amounts can exceed 2 inches all along the I-95 corridor and a few thunderstorms can mix into the picture. The combination of a strong surface cold front, plenty of available moisture, and a deep upper-level trough that becomes “negatively-tilted” will lead to this heavy rain event

In addition to the rain, the winds will become an important factor; especially, along coastal sections of the eastern seaboard from the Carolinas to New England where a low-level jet is going to become very intense. In fact, there is the potential for winds to gusts to 60 mph late Wednesday across portions of eastern New England where the low-level jet will reach its greatest strength.

In terms of temperatures, it’ll be unseasonably mild through much of the day on Wednesday - ahead of the strong cold front - temperatures will drop sharply late in the day or early tonight on the heels of its passage. This cold air intrusion can lead to a brief period of snow in some of the N/W suburbs along the I-95 corridor where small accumulations cannot be ruled out this evening. Finally, this cold blast will result in yet another “Great Lakes snow event” for those areas just downstream of Lakes Erie and Ontario (e.g., Erie, PA, Watertown, NY).

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7:00 AM | ***Thick fog today...heavy rain event from late tonight into tomorrow night...strong winds, possible thunderstorms as well...cold blast to follow for Thursday and Friday***

Paul Dorian

There was some welcome rainfall yesterday in the NYC metro region, but it didn’t amount to all that much as the system involved was a rather quick mover. After a damp and foggy day on Tuesday, another rain event is on the way and this one will be much more significant than yesterday’s with more than 2 inches on the table between later tonight and tomorrow night. In addition to the rain, the winds might become quite strong both ahead of the advancing cold front on Wednesday from a southerly direction and also on its backside on Wednesday night from a northwesterly direction. The combination of a strong surface cold front, plenty of available moisture, and a deep upper-level trough that becomes “negatively-tilted” will lead to the heavy rain event. A cold blast will follow the passage of the cold front with temperatures on both Thursday and Friday well below-normal for this time of year.

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7:00 AM | ***Dense fog this morning...heavy rain event from later tonight into late tomorrow...strong winds, possible thunderstorms as well...cold blast to follow for Thursday and Friday***

Paul Dorian

There was some welcome rainfall yesterday in the DC metro region, but it didn’t amount to all that much as the system involved was a rather quick mover. After a damp and foggy morning, another rain event is on the way and this one will be much more significant than yesterday’s with more than 2 inches on the table between later tonight and late tomorrow. In addition to the rain, the winds might become quite strong both ahead of the advancing cold front on Wednesday from a southerly direction and also on its backside on Wednesday night from a northwesterly direction. The combination of a strong surface cold front, plenty of available moisture, and a deep upper-level trough that becomes “negatively-tilted” will lead to the heavy rain event. A cold blast will follow the passage of the cold front with temperatures on both Thursday and Friday well below-normal for this time of year.

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7:00 AM | ***Thick fog today...heavy rain event from late tonight into tomorrow night...strong winds, possible thunderstorms as well...cold blast to follow for Thursday and Friday***

Paul Dorian

There was some welcome rainfall yesterday in the Philly metro region, but it didn’t amount to all that much as the system involved was a rather quick mover. After a damp and foggy day on Tuesday, another rain event is on the way and this one will be much more significant than yesterday’s with more than 2 inches on the table between late tonight and tomorrow night. In addition to the rain, the winds might become quite strong both ahead of the advancing cold front on Wednesday from a southerly direction and also on its backside on Wednesday night from a northwesterly direction. The combination of a strong surface cold front, plenty of available moisture, and a deep upper-level trough that becomes “negatively-tilted” will lead to the heavy rain event. A cold blast will follow the passage of the cold front with temperatures on both Thursday and Friday well below-normal for this time of year.

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3:30 PM | ***Heavy rain event for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from late Tuesday night into Wednesday evening...powerful winds, thunderstorms may accompany the heavy rain...cold blast to follow***

Paul Dorian

There has been some rainfall today in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor which is certainly quite welcome; however, overall amounts will end up being on the low side. Another rain event will follow by mid-week in an active weather pattern and this one is likely to feature significant rainfall that can exceed 2 inches all along the I-95 corridor with a few thunderstorms likely to mix into the picture. In addition to the rain, the winds might become very strong both ahead of the advancing cold front from a southerly direction and also on its backside from a northwesterly direction. In fact, wind gusts to extreme levels of 80+ mph are on the table late Wednesday/Wednesday night near and along the strong cold front along the coastal sections from eastern North Carolina to eastern New England. The combination of a strong surface cold front, plenty of available moisture, and a deep upper-level trough that becomes “negatively-tilted” will lead to this heavy rain event from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. A cold blast will follow the passage of the cold front for Thursday and Friday with temperatures on both days well below-normal for this time of year.

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7:00 AM | **Some welcome rain later today and then a soaker from late Tuesday night through Wednesday**

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern changed to a milder one on Sunday in the Mid-Atlantic region and it’ll become quite active as well for much of the week ahead. Some rain is likely here from later today into early tonight as a strong upper-level trough slides east from the Midwest and then a soaking rain is likely late Tuesday night and Wednesday with the approach of a strong cold frontal system. The rain can be heavy at times at mid-week with 1-2 inches possible around here and a thunderstorm can be mixed into the picture. Following the passage of the cold front, it turns much colder here later Wednesday night and stays quite cold on Thursday and Friday with well below-normal temperatures on each of those days.

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