11:00 AM (Wednesday) | **Numerous daily low temperature records in the eastern third of the nation and a few monthly records…colder-than-normal pattern likely to continue for much of November**

The month of November so far has been well below-normal across much of the nation; map courtesy Weather Bell Analytics, NOAA

Overview

Dozens and dozens of daily low temperature records were set this morning in the eastern third of the nation and, in some cases, the all-time low temperature for the month of November was recorded.  Monthly low temperature records are quite impressive since we haven’t even reached mid-month and most of these type of records would typically take place in the last week or so of the given month.  In some spots, today’s record low isn’t the only one to take place in this cold pattern.  For example, Central Park’s record low for today followed a record low set before midnight for yesterday and they broke a record on last Friday – the 3rd record low set in just the past several days.

Numerous daily low temperature records were set today in the eastern third of the nation and a few spots measured their lowest temperature ever for the month of November; data and map courtesy coolwx.com, NOAA

Details

Despite a day filled with sunshine in the I-95 corridor and no snow on the ground, temperatures will struggle to climb through the 30’s which is well below-normal for the middle of November.  Under clear skies, temperatures later tonight will drop into the teens and 20’s in many Mid-Atlantic/NE US locations and there will likely be more records broken come early tomorrow morning.  Some moderation in temperatures will take place later tomorrow and Friday, but it’ll remain below-normal for this time of year.  Another cold front will pass through the region on Friday night and temperatures will take another step backwards as we begin the weekend with the frontal passage likely knocking about 10 degrees off of the highs which on Friday afternoon should be close to the 50 degree mark in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and then closer to 40 degrees on Saturday afternoon.  Later in the weekend and early next week, there will be strong low pressure developing over the western Atlantic and this system could impact the Mid-Atlantic in the Sunday/Monday time frame.

NOAA’s CFS forecast of 2-meter temperature anomalies made on 22 October (left) had a prediction of widespread warmer-than-normal conditions for the US in the month of November. The prediction of 2-meter temperature anomalies for November in the US changed quite dramatically by the time the month actually began (right); maps courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Looking ahead, there are signs for a continuation of the colder-than-normal pattern for much of the remainder of November which has been well below-normal across the nation to this point.  In fact, the nation as a whole is off to the coldest start in November since at the least the middle 1990’s. Computer forecast models have tended to “miss” or “underplay” the cold blasts in recent weeks that have dominated the scene across the eastern half of the nation.  For example, NOAA’s climate model called the CFS which is updated on a daily basis predicted a significantly warmer-than-normal month of November for the US just 9 days or so before the end of October.  By the time the verification month of November actually began, the CFS forecast model “picked up” on the significant cold and it changed dramatically its forecast of November temperature anomalies across the nation.  [By the way, at this point in the month, the updated “colder” forecast by the CFS model appears to have been underdone, but there is still half the month to go so the accuracy results are incomplete]. 

A relatively small area of colder-than-normal from Monday night’s 06Z GEFS model run for the period 23 November to 28 November; map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Perhaps this same kind of problem for the computer models is repeating in terms of being slow to pick up on coming cold for the eastern half of the nation.  The ensemble run of NOAA’s GFS (GEFS) computer forecast model has begun to change its outlook for the medium term with respect to temperature anomalies across the US.  While the 5-day average 850 mb temperature anomaly forecast map from two nights ago maintains some colder-than-normal air in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US, the updated forecast from last night looks quite a bit different with a much more widespread region of below-normal temperatures and quite a bit colder relative-to-normal.  We’ll continue to monitor the temperature trend in the forecast models over the next few days in what is looking like a continuation of a colder-than-normal pattern for the eastern half of the nation.

A more widespread area of colder-than-normal from Tuesday night’s 06Z GEFS model run for the period of 23 November to 28 November; map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Here is a sampling of Mid-Atlantic locations that set their daily low temperature record on Wednesday:  Philadelphia, PA; Allentown, PA; Reading, PA; State College, PA; Newark, NJ; JFK Airport, NY; Central Park, NY; LGA Airport, NY; Islip, NY; Wilmington, DE, and Aberdeen, MD.  A few sites that recorded their all-time low temperature for the month of November include Mt. Vernon, IL (8 degrees), Port Hope, MI (13 degrees) and Bluefield, WV (8 degrees).

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com

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