1:50 PM (Wednesday) | *Low pressure to trek from the Tennessee Valley on Saturday to the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early Sunday*
Paul Dorian
12Z Euro 500 mb forecast map on Sunday morning features a potent wave of energy aloft over the Mid-Atlantic supporting surface low pressure near the coastline; map courtesy ECMWF, WSI, Inc.
Overview
A potent wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere will help to form low pressure over the Tennessee Valley on Saturday morning and then it will travel to the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early Sunday. Rain is likely to break out later Saturday in the I-95 corridor and continue until early Sunday at which time drier air will begin to arrive and lead to improving conditions as the weekend winds down. There will be some cold air around for the weekend system, but the best chance for snow is likely to be confined to areas far west and north of the I-95 corridor (e.g., West Virginia to western/northern PA).
12Z Euro surface forecast map on Saturday morning features low pressure over the Tennessee Valley; map courtesy ECMWF, WSI, Inc.
Details
After another relatively quiet day on Thursday, a cold front will approach the I-95 corridor late Friday and it could bring a few showers to the region. Ahead of the front, temperatures will climb towards the 60 degree mark on Friday afternoon in DC, Philly and NYC, but likely will be confined to the 40’s this weekend following the passage of the front. Low pressure will develop over the Tennessee Valley early Saturday as a potent wave aloft moves from the nation’s mid-section to the Mississippi Valley by early Saturday. The energetic support aloft will help to intensify the surface low pressure system which will likely wind up as a pretty strong storm by early Sunday morning near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. From there, the system will continue to push off to the northeast out over the open waters of the western Atlantic and improving weather conditions are likely to follow for the Mid-Atlantic from later Sunday into Monday.
12Z Euro surface forecast map on Sunday morning features low pressure near the Mid-Atlantic coastline; map courtesy ECMWF, WSI, Inc.
Looking ahead, another cold front is likely to push across the northern US during the first half of next week and it could arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving. One final note, an important college football game this Saturday in Columbus, Ohio with Penn State playing Ohio State. The same low pressure system that will impact the Mid-Atlantic this weekend can generate rain and/or snow in Columbus, Ohio on Saturday afternoon - perhaps having an impact on the game.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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