12:50 PM (Wednesday) | **Cold pattern continues for the eastern two-thirds of the nation**
Paul Dorian
A very cold start for the month across the continental US; map courtesy Weather Bell Analytics, NOAA
Overview
The first five days of November have been colder-than-normal across a large part of the nation and there won’t be any let up for the eastern two-thirds of the nation through at least the middle part of the month. The next blast of cold air will reach the eastern states in the Thursday night/Friday morning time frame and then another shot comes by the early-to-middle parts of next week. Rain will accompany the arrival of the first cold frontal system later tomorrow into tomorrow night and it can even end as some snowflakes in parts of the I-95 corridor. Accumulating snow is likely late tomorrow night in far interior regions of the NE US from southwestern NY to northern Maine with the influx of the cold air. The Arctic frontal system arriving early-to-middle next week could feature the development of low pressure along its boundary zone and that puts rain-changing-to-snow on the table for the I-95 corridor.
Cold blast #1 will drop temperatures to way below-normal levels by Friday night with the lowest temperatures so far this season; map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Late week cold blast
A significant cold air outbreak is headed to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US from the northern part of Canada and should arrive late tomorrow night/early Friday. As high pressure ridging intensifies across Alaska and western Canada, the upper-level air flow will develop in such a manner as to allow for the transport of air from way up in northern Canada to the central and eastern US. As the cold air pushes to the southeast on Thursday, moisture will push northeastward along the advancing frontal boundary zone and this will result in the breakout of rain later tomorrow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. As the colder air pours in late tomorrow night, the rain could actually mix with or change to snow briefly around here and accumulating snow is likely from southwestern New York State to northern Maine. Friday promises to a windy and cold day in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and temperatures late Friday night will drop well down into the 20’s.
Widespread colder-than-normal air will invade the central and eastern US early-to-middle of next week; map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Second cold blast next week may include a snow threat for the Mid-Atlantic
All signs continue point to a widespread cold air outbreak early-to-middle next week and this setup may include the development of a low pressure system in the Monday night to Wednesday time period. Much like the initial late week cold air outbreak, this next Arctic air mass will drop southeastward across Canada, push through the Northern Plains/Great Lakes, and then push into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. If low pressure does form along the cold frontal boundary zone, the chances for rain-changing-to-snow will increase in the I-95 corridor - stay tuned on that.
Next week’s cold blast may feature low pressure in the Southeast US that could produce accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region and northeastern US; map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
The key player next week will be a wave of energy in the upper atmosphere that will drop southeastward from central Canada….the farther south and east this energy can move, the better the chance for low pressure to form near the east coast and likely the better the chance for a changeover to snow in the Mid-Atlantic region. Whether the frozen precipitation actually materializes or not, the Arctic cold air outbreak will be very noticeable around here by the middle of next week continuing the overall colder-than-normal weather pattern. Temperatures could actually drop into the teens or even the single digits in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week and expect numerous low temperature records to be threatened in the central and eastern US. In addition, next week’s cold air blast is liable to lead to many spots experiencing their lowest temperature ever this early in the season. All of this follows an October which featured 3680 record daily lows across the nation and 32 all-time record lows for the month including perhaps the coldest temperature ever recorded during the month of October in the continental US (-46 degrees F at Peter Sinks, Utah).
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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