2:00 PM (Friday) | **Next week’s cold blast will be a record-breaker**
Paul Dorian
Overview
The first seven days of November have averaged more than 2.6ºC colder-than-normal across the nation and there is another very impressive cold air outbreak on the way for the eastern two-thirds. The first blast of much colder-than-normal air arrived in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US in the overnight hours and tonight will be the coldest so far this season. The next shot of Arctic air is already building up in Canada and it will reach the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest later in the weekend, cross the Great Lakes on Monday, and then into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US on Tuesday. This blast of Arctic air will not only spread out across a larger portion of the country compared to the initial shot, but it will be even colder. In fact, numerous daily low temperature records are likely to be set next week across the eastern two-thirds of the nation and there will likely be many sites recording their lowest temperatures ever for so early in the season.
Next week’s Arctic blast
The polar jet stream continues to flow from NW-to-SE across southern Canada, across the Great Lakes, and into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. Upper-level high pressure ridging has set up over Alaska and the west coast of Canada and this is combining with a downstream trough over the Great Lakes to form a wind flow that is pushing air masses from northern Canada into the central and eastern US. The Arctic front representing the leading edge of this next cold blast will drop southeastward into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest later this weekend leading to perhaps the coldest Veteran’s Day (Monday) ever recorded in places like Chicago, IL and Minneapolis, MN. On Tuesday, this same front will push to the east coast and, ultimately, will make its way through southern Florida and the northern Gulf Coast by Wednesday morning. Places like Houston, TX and New Orleans, LA could actually struggle to reach 50 degrees for highs by the middle of next week…way below-normal for this time of year.
The month of November so far has been well below-normal across the nation; map courtesy Weather Bell Analytics
In the Mid-Atlantic region, the coldest nights will be Tuesday and Wednesday and the teens are quite likely in many areas with single digits on the table across interior sections. As the front arrives on Tuesday, there can be some rain which can changeover to snow as the colder air pushes in, but the snow doesn’t appear to be anything significant from this vantage point. The cold, on the other hand, will be a very big story.
One final note, all of this follows an October which featured 3680 record daily lows across the nation and 32 all-time record lows for the month including perhaps the coldest temperature ever recorded during the month of October in the continental US (-46ºF at Peter Sinks, Utah).
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com