12:15 PM (Friday) | *Rain-to-snow scenario on the table in the I-95 corridor for late Tuesday night/early Wednesday*
Paul Dorian
Upper-level energy could ride up along the frontal boundary zone late Tuesday/early Wednesday as colder air filters into the I-95 corridor; map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
A strong cold front will push across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest early next week and usher into these regions a bitterly cold air mass for this time of year. This frontal system will slow down in its advance to the south and east on Tuesday as it’ll become more aligned with an upper-level wind flow blowing from southwest-to-northeast. At the same time, upper-level energy will be moving over the southwestern portion of the frontal system in the south-central US on Tuesday. This setup could produce a wave of low pressure that forms along the frontal boundary zone and perhaps result in a rain-changing-to-snow scenario along the I-95 corridor late Tuesday night/early Wednesday.
A very cold air mass will first arrive in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Tuesday and it’ll begin to turn colder in the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday night; map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Discussion
Anytime a frontal system slows down in its advance to the south and east this time of year there is reason to worry as low pressure could form along the frontal boundary zone and precipitation can change from rain-to-snow as colder air filters into a given region. On Tuesday, a strong cold front will indeed be slowing down as it pushes to the southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley from the Northern Plains and upper-level energy is likely to be pushing into the south-central states. The upper-level energy in the south-central US on Tuesday may be just enough to form low pressure along the slowly-moving frontal boundary zone. Bitterly cold air will flood the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Tuesday with temperatures 20+ degrees below-normal for this time of year. As an example of the bitter cold, Minneapolis, MN may struggle to pass the 0 degree mark for highs on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
A changeover from rain-to-snow is possible in the I-95 corridor late Tuesday night/early Wednesday; map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Ahead of the front, temperatures in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor could actually climb towards the 60 degree mark for highs on Tuesday afternoon and there will be some rainfall, but temperatures will then drop Tuesday night with the arrival of the cold air mass. If low pressure does indeed form, the precipitation could end up changing to snow along, and to the northwest, of the I-95 corridor in the late Tuesday night/early Wednesday time period. Ultimately, any wave of low pressure that does form along the front will push to the northeast into New England and it is at this time that the flood gates will open and cold air will pour into the Mid-Atlantic region. Mid-week temperatures will be well below-normal in the Mid-Atlantic region with teens likely for lows on Thursday morning in many spots and overall conditions will be even more harsh if there is any snow cover - stay tuned on that.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com