8:00 AM (Sunday) | *****Hurricane Dorian now a category 5 as it slows down…to take a right turn just as it nears the Florida east coast next couple days…should ride up the east coast*****

Overview

Major Hurricane Dorian is now a category 5 storm and continues to be a significant threat to Florida and to the rest of the US east coast. It is now moving westward at 8 mph with max sustained winds at 160 mph and is approaching the northwestern Bahamas. By tomorrow, powerful Dorian will be slowing down to a crawl as it crosses over the NW Bahamas and closes in on the east coast of Florida.  Later tomorrow and Tuesday, as Dorian makes its closest approach to the east coast of Florida, the hurricane will begin a turn toward the northwest/north and likely begin to move parallel to the coastline. Since there is still some uncertainty with the track forecast and a slight shift will make a huge difference, the eastern part of Florida remains under the threat of direct impacts from Dorian; especially, near the coastline.  Later in the week, Dorian is likely to take a ride up along the east coast impacting the coastal Carolinas and perhaps eventually impacting the Mid-Atlantic region and New England.

The NHC storm track places Hurricane Dorian near Florida’s east coast when it begins a turn to the northwest and ultimately the north. Dorian is likely to run up along the east coast later this week. Courtesy NOAA

Discussion

Hurricane Dorian has a well-defined eye this morning and has slowed its forward speed to 8 mph in a westerly direction.  High pressure ridging to its north has weakened and this has resulted in a slow-down in its forward progress.  In addition, a turn to the northwest is increasingly likely as Dorian approaches the east coast of Florida on Monday with a move parallel to the coastline.  Over the next few days, Dorian is likely to head northwest-then-north-then northeast towards the Carolinas and may run parallel to their coastlines as well. 

The bigger picture look with respect to Hurricane Dorian - now a cat 5. Courtesy NOAA

Bottom Line

All residents in Florida should continue preparations for a potential “major” hurricane hit and all residents up along the Atlantic seaboard should closely monitor the situation as Hurricane Dorian begins a right turn on Monday and Tuesday and runs near or over the coastline from Florida to the Carolinas and perhaps all the way to the Mid-Atlantic and New England by next weekend.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com