2:00 PM (Friday) | *Warmer-than-normal pattern in the Mid-Atlantic for another week, but then winter makes a comeback….60’s this weekend, but snow/ice/rain may be on the table for next weekend*
Paul Dorian
The eastern two-thirds of the nation have experienced warmer-than-normal conditions for the first ten days of January, but there are signs for a significant pattern change by the last third of the month; map courtesy Weather Bell Analytics, NOAA
Overview
Temperatures have averaged well above normal across the eastern two-thirds of the nation for the first ten days of January, but all signs point to a flip in the overall pattern in about a week or so. While we have had cold air outbreaks in the eastern US during the past couple of weeks, they have not been sustained and milder conditions have returned rather quickly. In fact, after a couple of cold days in the eastern US this week, the weekend will feature a noticeable jump in temperatures with the 60’s possible on both weekend days in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The warm up will back down some as we start the new work week, but temperatures should remain above-normal on average for much of next week. After that, however, colder air will likely press in the eastern US and it may have more staying power than recent outbreaks.
Very warm in the eastern US over the next 5 days and very cold across SW Canada and the NW US; map courtesy “weathermodels.com” (Dr. Ryan Maue, Twitter), NOAA
Details
A powerful storm will trek from the south-central US later today to the Great Lakes region late tomorrow and then into New England on Sunday. This storm will have a wide-ranging impact in the central and eastern US from later today through Sunday with heavy rain and severe weather a threat on its warm side to the south and east and significant snow and ice on the cold side of the storm to the north and west. In the I-95 corridor region, there will be a substantial warm up this weekend with highs likely to be well up in the 60’s on both days. Rain will accompany the warm up mainly centered on Saturday night and early Sunday and there can even be some strong thunderstorm activity given the unusually warm conditions. A cool front will slide through the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday and this will pave the way for a slightly cooler beginning to the new week, but temperatures will remain above-normal for mid-January during much of next week.
Signs continue to point to a big change in the overall temperature pattern later this month with colder-than-normal air dominating most of the country for the period of 1/20-1/25 according to the 12Z GEFS; map courtesy weathermodels.com (Dr. Ryan Maue, Twitter), NOAA
The overall active weather pattern will continue through next week and the following weekend. A relatively weak low pressure system could throw some rain into the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday night and early Wednesday and then another system will follow close behind with more rain likely on Thursday. That Thursday low pressure system will drag a cold front through the Mid-Atlantic region and usher in a cold air mass for the end of next week which could actually set the stage for some snow and/or ice next weekend as yet another system pushes out the central US and moves into the eastern US.
The latest ensemble run of the European forecast model features an upper-level trough (blue) in the eastern US in a couple of weeks and some “blocking” high pressure ridging (yellow, orange) across northern Canada/Greenland - all in all, quite a “winter-like” pattern for the central and eastern US; map courtesy Weather Bell Analytics, ECMWF
Another cold air mass will follow next weekend’s system and it will likely have some decent staying power as the overall pattern evolves to one that allows for more sustainability of cold air masses in the central and eastern US. Specifically, there is growing support for the idea that an upper-level trough will form over the eastern US later this month at the same time “blocking” high pressure ridging develops to the north and northwest. This type of setup would be one with at least the look of a “negative AO/negative NAO” teleconnection pattern which generally results in numerous cold air outbreaks for the central and eastern US and for them to stick around for awhile (and increasing the chances for snow).
Stay tuned and enjoy the warmth while we have it!
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube
Video discussion: