9:00 AM (Wednesday) | *Low pressure to form near the Carolina coastline early this weekend and then head northeast…could throw some rain and/or snow back into the I-95 corridor*
Paul Dorian
Two areas of upper-level energy as of early this afternoon which will play a big role in the formation of low pressure along the east coast on Friday night/Saturday; map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
An active weather pattern will bring multiple waves of energy across Canada and the US over the next couple of days and two of these – one in the northern stream and one in the southern stream - are likely to interact by early Saturday to generate low pressure near the Carolina coastline. This low pressure system is then likely to intensify as it pushes to the northeast to a position well off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline by later Saturday and it can throw some rain and/or snow into the I-95 corridor.
00Z GFS surface forecast map as of Saturday morning with low pressure just off the Carolina/Virginia coastline; map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
The overall weather pattern is quite active and multiple upper-level systems will move into Canada and the US from the northern Pacific Ocean in coming days. It appears that one northern stream system will drop to the south and east late in the week and try to interact with a southern stream system pushing to the north and east. This interaction should result in the formation of low pressure near the Carolina coastline on Friday night. This low is likely to then move to the northeast on Saturday and intensify, but exactly how quick the intensification takes place and the exact positioning of the surface low pressure system is still too early to say with high confidence and this will determine if any significant precipitation can break out in the I-95 corridor from the offshore low. Temperatures will be borderline on Saturday with respect to precipitation type so that if precipitation does indeed break out, it could be a combination of rain and snow depending on location with rain favored in the southern and eastern sections of the I-95 corridor and snow favored in the northern and western areas. Once the surface low pressure system passes off to the northeast late Saturday, the northern stream wave of energy will pass overhead and this can cause some snow shower activity to break out in at least parts of the I-95 corridor from late Saturday night into early Sunday.
Northern and southern stream energy as of Saturday morning which will play a big role in the formation of low pressure along the east coast; map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Stay tuned, the picture on the early weekend threat may not clear up until late this week.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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