2:00 PM (Friday) | *Multiple systems to monitor next several days, but sustainable cold air still a problem in the Mid-Atlantic*
Paul Dorian
This system for Tuesday/Tuesday night bears the most watching of all of these over the next several days. Low pressure is likely to form over the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and then move into the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday night with rain and/or snow. If the upper-level energy can “dig” a bit farther to the south and east before making a turn, it could result in more of an accumulating snow threat for the I-95 corridor. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
An active weather pattern will bring multiple waves of energy across the country and into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US during the next several days, but the lack of sustainable cold air is still problematic for snow lovers. A couple different waves of energy will consolidate in the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday and bring more rain followed by windy and colder conditions for Saturday night and Sunday. A “clipper” low pressure system will then drop southeastward on Sunday from central Canada to the Great Lakes and it could throw some snow showers into at least parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic/NE US from late Sunday night into early Monday. Finally, another system - perhaps the one with the most potential for accumulating snow in the I-95 corridor - is likely to form on Tuesday over the Ohio Valley as additional waves of upper-level energy come together. This system should be able to produce some rain and/or snow in the Mid-Atlantic region by Tuesday night. Another cold air outbreak will follow for the middle of next week, but, once again, it won’t last too long.
A couple of waves of energy will consolidate over the Mid-Atlantic region later tomorrow and it will result in more rain tomorrow and then windy and cold conditions for late tomorrow night and Sunday. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Discussion
There are multiple waves of energy in this evolving active weather pattern that can impact the Mid-Atlantic region in coming days and there will be some cold air around, but nothing yet on a sustainable basis. A warm front advancing to the north today along the eastern seaboard has caused some light rain in the Mid-Atlantic region and the threat for rain will continue tonight and Saturday as low pressure forms as waves of energy aloft consolidate in the nearby vicinity. The low pressure area will intensify as it pushes off NE US coastline later tomorrow night and colder air will follow in its wake riding into the Mid-Atlantic on increasing NW winds. There can be a few snow showers in the Mid-Atlantic late tomorrow night as the colder air pours into the region, but it doesn’t appear to be anything significant.
A “clipper” system will drop southeastward on Sunday from the southern part of Canada to the Great Lakes and it could result in some snow shower activity in the interior Mid-Atlantic north of the Mason-Dixon Line. map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
A “clipper” system will then follow closely behind dropping southeastward later Sunday from the southern part of Canada to the Great Lakes. This system will not have significant moisture associated with it, but it can produce some snow showers late Sunday night in parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic to the north of the PA/MD border. This system moves away by early Monday morning leaving moderately cold air in its wake to start the new work week.
Another cold shot will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region at mid-week, but it’ll be rather short-lived as milder air returns at the end of next week. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Another low pressure system is likely to develop over the Ohio Valley on Tuesday as two waves of energy aloft try to consolidate – one moving along in the northern stream and the other in the southern stream. This low pressure area will push into the Mid-Atlantic region and it should be able to produce some snow and/or rain in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor by early Tuesday night. Temperatures will be borderline in terms of snow versus rain in the immediate I-95 corridor with precipitation more likely to be in the form of snow to the northwest of I-95 and rain to its southeast. One thing to watch for in coming days will be if this energy aloft can dive a little bit farther to the south and east before making a turn to the northeast. If this can happen, then a stronger system may develop compared to preliminary model forecasts and, more importantly, colder air can hold its ground farther to the south and east of I-95 corridor (i.e., a better chance for snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor). Another cold air mass will follow for the Mid-Atlantic region during the middle portion of next week, but, once again, it does not look like it will last too long. It looks like it’ll turn milder again by the end of the next week – just ahead of another storm system which could result in more rain around here next weekend.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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