11:00 AM (Monday) | **Some accumulating snow tomorrow afternoon/evening in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor**
Paul Dorian
A wave of energy over the Tennessee Valley early tomorrow will help to intensify surface low pressure which will head towards the Mid-Atlantic coastal waters. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
Low pressure will pull out of the Tennessee Valley early tomorrow and head towards the Mid-Atlantic coastal waters and the result is likely to be some accumulating PM snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Temperatures will be borderline in the I-95 corridor region in terms of snow versus rain on Tuesday, but odds favor snow in the metro regions and nearby suburbs or a changeover from a mix of rain and snow to all snow soon after the precipitation begins. The low will push away from coastal waters of New Jersey tomorrow night and another cold air outbreak will make it into the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday. Much like most recent cold air outbreaks, however, this chilly air mass will not last too long and it should give way to much milder conditions for the upcoming weekend and it’ll turn wet.
There will be a strong jet streak in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US early Tuesday that will play a role in the development of surface low pressure. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
Low pressure system is likely to develop over the Tennessee Valley early Tuesday as an upper-level wave of energy in the southern jet stream intensifies and moves overhead. This low pressure system will push towards the southern New Jersey coastal waters by tomorrow evening and is likely to produce some accumulating snow along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor - mainly during the PM hours. The beginning time for the snow is likely to be around mid-day in DC, mid-to-late afternoon in Philly and late afternoon in NYC. Most likely accumulations are in the range of a coating to two inches along the I-95 corridor, but some spots in the area from the DC metro region to interior southern New Jersey could see isolated 3-4 inch snowfall totals. Temperatures will be borderline in terms of snow versus rain in the I-95 corridor with precipitation more likely to be mainly in the form of snow in the metro regions and nearby suburbs or a perhaps a mixture of snow and rain that soon changes to all snow. Given the marginal temperatures, any snow that falls during the daytime hours on Tuesday will tend to have an easier time sticking on grassy surfaces as compared with treated asphalt roadways, but we’ll need to watch for slick driving conditions late in the day.
Surface low pressure just off the south Jersey coastline as of 7 PM Tuesday. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Another cold air mass will follow the low pressure system on Wednesday with strong NW winds of 40+ mph and there can be snow showers across much of the Mid-Atlantic region - perhaps even additional small accumulations in some spots. It’ll stay cold on Thursday, but the winds will be much less of a factor as compared with Wednesday. As has been the case in recent days, this cold air mass won’t last too long and it looks like it’ll turn noticeably milder again this weekend – just ahead of another storm system which should result in more rain around here.
It’ll turn much milder this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region and there is likely to be more rainfall for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
Video discussion: