12:00 PM (Monday) | *Monitoring a setup for the late week that will feature a southern storm heading towards the east coast and a northern system that’ll be digging southeast across the Great Lakes*
Paul Dorian
By Thursday night, there will be two upper-levels systems of note to monitor with one wave of energy over the Great Lakes and a second one headed through the eastern part of the Tennessee Valley; map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
A strong wave of energy is sitting off the coast of southern California at mid-day Monday and it’ll push eastward across northern Mexico and then into Texas by mid-week. This upper-level system will help to spawn the development of a strong surface low pressure system in Texas by early Wednesday and this storm will spread significant rainfall to the southern states from Texas to the Carolinas in the Wednesday/Thursday time period. By late Thursday, the southern low will push towards the Carolina coastline at the same time a northern stream wave of energy drops southeastward across the Great Lakes. This two upper-level features will likely phase together at the end of the week, but it’s a little too early to tell the exact timing and placement of the phase which will have an impact as to how far north and west the southern storm’s precipitation shield can extend. Temperatures are likely to be borderline in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US at the end of the week with respect to rain versus snow; however, colder air will be sitting just to the northwest and it certainly can feed in making this an unfolding scenario to closely monitor in coming days.
Details
The first work week of March is getting off to a mild start in the Mid-Atlantic region and across much of the eastern half of the nation. A broad flow of air from the southwest has resulted in a noticeable change today from the colder-than-normal conditions of the past weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region. It’ll stay warmer-than-normal into mid-week and a weak disturbance will result in some shower activity from late today into late Tuesday.
A significant rainfall is setting up for much of the southern US over the next few days in a part of the country that is pretty waterlogged from recent rains; map courtesy NOAA/WPC
Meanwhile, the southern US will become increasingly moist over the next couple of days and once energy moves in overhead, significant rain will develop in this waterlogged part of the nation; primarily, in the period from late tomorrow into late Thursday. There will also be the chance for some severe weather over the next few days in the southern US as the combination of warm, moist air and an increasingly unstable atmosphere likely provides the trigger for some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity. Today’s severe weather threat will likely be primarily focused in the Tennessee Valley, but the threat will extend anywhere from Texas to the Carolinas over the next few days.
By Thursday night, there will be two systems of note to monitor with one surface wave over the Great Lakes and a second near the Carolina coastline; map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
By late Thursday, there will be two upper-level waves of energy to closely monitor in the eastern states. One system will be moving along in the southern branch of the jet stream and it’ll push northeastward from the southern states towards the Carolina coastline. A second system will be riding along the northern jet stream and it’ll dig southeastward across the Great Lakes. Ultimately, these two systems will phase together and there will likely be one powerful storm off the east coast. The exact timing of that phasing together will dictate how far north and west the precipitation shield can extend at week’s end and whether there can be a significant impact in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Currently, NOAA’s main computer forecast model known as the GFS pushes the main precipitation shield of the southern storm well to the south and east of the Mid-Atlantic, but there is some reason to believe it can be a little too far to the south and east. Temperatures will be borderline in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US at week’s end with respect to rain versus snow, but colder air will be sitting not far to the northwest and it can feed into the overall system making this unfolding scenario worth watching closely in coming days…stay tuned.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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