11:00 AM (Fri.) | **Continued unsettled conditions with additional very heavy rainfall and strong storms…nicer weather Sun/Mon…Cristobal to turn north and approach the north-central Gulf on Sunday**
Paul Dorian
Tremendous amount of moisture is associated with tropical depression Cristobal over the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico (shown in red) and there is plenty of moisture in the Mid-Atlantic region as well (shown in orange, yellow). Courtesy University of Wisconsin/CIMSS, NOAA
Overview
There are two important weather stories here at the end of the work week with continued very unsettled weather conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region and also tropical depression Cristobal which remains just inland over the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico at mid-day. The surge of summer-like heat and humidity into the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday was accompanied by severe thunderstorm activity and a stalled out frontal boundary zone will remain the focus area for showers and thunderstorms over the next 24 hours or so. Any rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region can be heavy at times with the potential of localized flash flooding and any thunderstorm that forms can be strong-to-severe with gusty winds.
Meanwhile, tropical depression is parked inland over Mexico, but it is likely to move back out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and take a turn to the north this weekend. There is a chance that Cristobal – the third named tropical system of this young tropical season – will close in on the north-central Gulf coastal region by the end of the weekend and all eyes from the Panhandle of Florida to Texas should remained focused on this threat.
12Z NAM forecast map for early tonight with an indication of heavy rainfall in the DC-to-Philly metro regions. Courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Heavy rainfall/strong-to-severe thunderstorm threat continues in the Mid-Atlantic region
A cold front pushed into the Mid-Atlantic region late Wednesday and then stalled out on Thursday. This frontal boundary zone has been the focus area for showers and thunderstorms and that pattern will continue for the next 24 hours or so. Showers and thunderstorms will intensify and expand in areal coverage this afternoon and push towards the DC and Philly metro regions with “training” possible. Any rainfall later today and tonight will be heavy at times with up to three inches possible in spots and the threat exists for localized flash flooding following the significant rainfall experienced during the past 24-48 hours.
Another cold front will approach the region later Saturday continuing the threat of showers and thunderstorms, but this front should be strong enough to clear the area by Sunday morning. As a result, the weather will become much more comfortable in the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday and Monday with plenty of sunshine and pleasantly warm conditions.
Tropical depression Cristobal will turn north this weekend and approach the north-central Gulf coastal region later Sunday. Courtesy NOAA/NHC
Tropical depression Cristobal
Cristobal – the third named system of the young 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season – remains over the southern Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico at mid-day with the status of tropical depressions. This system should emerge back out over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico by later tonight and begin to intensity as it takes a turn to the north this weekend. This type of track could put it on a course to directly impact the north-central Gulf coastal region late this weekend or early next week as a strong tropical storm or perhaps even as a minimal hurricane. The heaviest rains and strongest winds from Cristobal will likely be on the right side of the system which is rather typical. All eyes from Florida to Texas should continue to closely monitor Cristobal over the next few days. Eventually, the vast amounts of moisture associated with Cristobal is likely to push northward into the Mississippi Valley region and this could result in some localized flooding conditions across inland locations.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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