10:30 AM (Friday) | **Now monitoring three tropical systems…Tropical Storm Hanna, Tropical Storm Gonzalo, and a third large wave just now emerging off the west coast of Africa**
Paul Dorian
An impressive-looking Tropical Storm Hannah appears to be headed for a landfall in southeast Texas later Saturday. This system has high potential of intensifying into hurricane status before landfall on Saturday. Imagery courtesy NOAA/GOES-16, College of DuPage
Overview
The Atlantic Basin now features three tropical systems to closely monitor in this very active early part of the 2020 tropical season. Tropical Storm Hanna is churning westward across the Gulf of Mexico and is on a path to make landfall on Saturday in southeastern Texas - quite likely as a hurricane. Tropical Storm Gonzalo has been relatively steady recently in terms of its intensity, but there are signs that it should weaken over the next couple of days as it moves towards the Caribbean Sea. A third and quite large tropical wave has just emerged from the west coast of Africa and it has great potential for intensification over the next several days. This third system is likely to head to a position quite close to where Tropical Storm Gonzalo currently resides, and it very well could have an impact on the US in 10-15 days.
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is now monitoring three different tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin with two having reached tropical storm status (Hanna, Gonzalo) and a third just now emerging off the west coast of Africa (“X” in lower right). Map courtesy NOAA/NHC
Tropical Storm Hanna
Tropical Storm Hanna intensified in the overnight hours becoming the 8th named system of the 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season. The latest measurements suggest a rather slow movement of only 9 mph to the west-northwest and maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The latest satellite imagery loop of Hanna shows a rather impressive-looking system with well-defined convective banding features and a symmetrical upper-level anti-cyclonic (high pressure and clockwise) outflow indicating it is in a rather favorable environment with low wind shear. As such, Hanna could very well strengthen over the next 24 hours into hurricane status before it likely makes landfall later tomorrow over the southeastern coastline of Texas. Given its rather slow movement, heavy rainfall is a big concern with flash flooding likely in parts of Texas over the weekend. Ultimately, Hanna is likely to cross the Rio Grande and move into the northeastern part of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Gonzalo has remained relatively steady in the last 24 hours or so in terms of overall intensity as it moves to the west and towards the Windward Island/Caribbean Sea.. Imagery courtesy NOAA/GOES-16, tropicaltidbits.com
Tropical Storm Gonzalo
Tropical Storm Gonzalo has remained quite consistent in its intensity over the last 24 hours or so with similar maximum sustained winds as yesterday morning of 60 mph. Gonzalo is moving to the west at 14 mph and should end up over the Caribbean Sea by later tomorrow. The latest satellite imagery of Gonzalo indicate little change in the overall cloud pattern during the past several hours as it continues to move over the warm waters of the central Atlantic. It certainly is within the realm of possibility that Gonzalo strengthens into a hurricane in the near-term; however, it is more likely to weaken as it encounters increasing wind shear and dry air in its push towards the Windward Islands and Caribbean Sea.
A large tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa and it will push westward in coming days. Imagery courtesy NOAA/GOES-16, College of DuPage
Wave #3 in the eastern Atlantic
A third tropical system has just emerged off the west coast of Africa and it is quite large and has the potential for some intensification in coming days. This system will take a track that will likely take it to a position just to the north from where Tropical Storm Gonzalo currently resides in the central tropical Atlantic. While still in speculation phase, this system will need to be closely monitored next week as it could ultimately have an impact on the US. If it were to become a named tropical storm, it would be “Isaias”.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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