1:00 PM (Monday) | *Monitoring a tropical wave over the central Atlantic...soon-to-be "Isaias" could threaten the Southeast US by early next week*
Paul Dorian
The ultimate track of “Invest 92L” may largely depend on an impressive upper-level trough that is likely to dig into the south-central US by the weekend. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to an active start with eight named storms already and another (still unnamed) wave over the central Atlantic. This latest tropical wave pushed off the west coast of Africa late last week and is likely to intensify over the next few days as it takes a general W-NW track. There is a good chance that this system moves first towards the northern Caribbean island chain and then to near the Bahamas over the next several days. Whether or not this tropical system ultimately impacts the Southeast US may be largely dependent on an unusually strong upper-level trough that is likely to dig into the south-central states by the weekend.
This 00Z Euro Ensemble forecast map of cyclone locations has the track of “Invest 92L” to near the northern Caribbean islands and then the Bahamas. Map courtesy weathermodels.com (Dr. Ryan Maue Twitter), ECMWF
Details
Over the past weekend, Tropical Storm Hanna intensified into a hurricane over the western gulf of Mexico and just before it made landfall in southeastern Texas. Hanna became the first hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season. This system has since crossed over the border into northeastern Mexico and continues to produce some heavy rainfall in that region. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Gonzalo dissipated over the central Atlantic as it could not survive a battle with higher wind shear and dry air.
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center projects a W-NW track of “Invest 92L” in the coming five day period. Courtesy NOAA/NHC
Another tropical wave is now moving over the central Atlantic and it is likely to take a track just to the north of the one taken by Tropical Storm Gonzalo and it should encounter somewhat favorable environmental conditions in coming days. If indeed this system known officially as “Invest 92L” develops into a named tropical storm, it would become “Isaias” and the ninth named storm of the still relatively young 2020 tropical season. The likely track of “Invest 92L” in coming days will be to the west-to-northwest at 15-20 mph which would bring it near the Lesser Antilles islands at mid-week. After that, “Invest 92L” has a good chance to move to a position near the northern Caribbean island chain (e.g., Puerto Rico) and then perhaps to near the Bahama Islands at the end of the week.
“Invest 92L” is a large tropical system, but it is currently lacking convection (i.e., thunderstorm) activity near its rather broad circulation center. Image courtesy NOAA
As to the prospects of “Invest 92L” ever having an impact on the US - something that is certainly on the table - it appears that one key player to watch will be an upper-level trough that is likely to drop into the south-central states over the upcoming weekend. If this upper-level trough were to keep moving along, it could act to “push” the tropical system away from the US east coast. On the other hand, if this upper-level trough were to slow down some or if the tropical system speeds up some then there could be a window opened up for a possible impact on the Southeast US by early next week.
Stay tuned…still too early for any specifics on the ultimate path of “Invest 92L” and soon-to-be “Isaias”.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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