11:00 AM (Tues) | ***Hurricane Laura to undergo rapid intensification next 24-36 hours…could reach ”major” hurricane status before landfall near the TX/LA border…possible impact in Mid-Atlantic***

Hurricane Laura has entered the Gulf of Mexico and will undergo rapid intensification next 24-36 hours. Images courtesy NOAA

Overview

Hurricane Laura could become a “major” hurricane before making landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday likely somewhere near the Texas/Louisiana border.  Hurricane Laura has cleared the island of Cuba and is now pushing over the very warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  The combination of weak wind shear and very high sea surface temperatures will contribute to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 hours.  After Hurricane Laura makes landfall in the western Gulf coastal region, its story line will not be over.  Its remains will push northward into the south-central states and result in heavy rainfall and potential severe weather and then the remnants may turn to the east, interact with a frontal system, and potentially produce heavy rainfall and severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic region early in the upcoming weekend.

Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are near their peak of the year and are quite supportive of a “major” hurricane. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Details

“Laura” has officially reached hurricane status with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and a movement to the WNW at 16 mph. Hurricane Laura has cleared the island of Cuba and is now firmly in a position over the open and very warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are greater than 30 degrees (C) in many spots – some of the warmest water seen anywhere around the world.  Hurricane Laura maintained its intensity level quite well as it passed over the northern Caribbean islands of Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic) and Cuba.  These two islands tend to weaken tropical cyclones as their rugged terrain usually has a detrimental effect on the overall circulation field.  Indeed, it was an ominous sign that “Laura” held its own while passing over these two islands and suggestive of a very healthy inner core.

The 00Z ensemble run of the Euro supports the idea of landfall by Hurricane Laura somewhere along the Texas coastline - perhaps in the vicinity of the Houston/Galveston metro region. Map courtesy ECMWF

Hurricane Laura will continue on a path to the west-northwest over the next 12-24 hours as it likely undergoes rapid intensification. The synoptic pattern that is influencing its movement consists of an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean and an inverted trough over Texas.  Hurricane Laura is likely to turn more to the northwest on Wednesday as it gains latitude and approaches the western Gulf coastal region.

This map shows the latest “official” storm track of Hurricane Laura by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.

It is still a bit too early to pinpoint the exact area of landfall, but signs point to the Texas/Louisiana border region. This storm is quite large, however, and residents anywhere along the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coastlines should prepare for a possible significant impact from Hurricane Laura in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame. One important note, there is a chance for some increased westerly vertical wind shear near the arrival time of Hurricane Laura on Wednesday night as a result of an upper-level low reasserting itself over central Texas…this would certainly be welcome news as it could reduce the intensity of Laura slightly at that time.

After landfall, the remnants of Hurricane Laura are likely to push northward into the south-central US and then turn eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic region over the weekend. The remnants could result in heavy rainfall and severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend as they become intertwined with a new frontal system and an incoming upper-level trough. Map courtesy WSI, Inc., ECMWF

Looking ahead

The remains of Hurricane Laura are likely to push northward into the south-central states later in the week and then may turn eastward to the Mid-Atlantic region by early this weekend - potentially bringing some heavy rainfall and severe weather to both of these parts of the country. Once the remnants of Hurricane Laura reach the Mid-Atlantic region, they’ll likely interact with a frontal system and an incoming upper-level trough to potentially result in some heavy rainfall and severe weather.  In the longer-term, the overall weather pattern in the tropical Atlantic should remain quite active as we turn the page to the month of September.  In fact, there are some signs that the tropical threat may actually increase for the east coast of the US once we get into the month of September– stay tuned.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com

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