11:15 AM (Monday) | *****“Isaias” to make landfall tonight in the Carolinas…produce a major rain and wind event tomorrow and tomorrow night in the Mid-Atlantic region*****
Paul Dorian
“Isaias” is pushing northward at mid-day as a strong tropical storm and should make landfall tonight in the Carolinas - perhaps as a category one hurricane. Images courtesy NOAA/GOES-16, College of DuPage
Overview
“Isaias” stayed off the east coast of Florida on Sunday as it pushed slowly to the northwest while maintaining strong tropical storm status. The center of “Isaias” is now moving due north and has reached the latitude of the Georgia/Florida border region. “Isaias” should begin a gradual turn to the northeast later today and will likely make landfall tonight in the Carolinas - perhaps in the border region of South and North Carolina. There is a chance that “Isaias” re-gains category one hurricane status before it makes landfall as it continues to push over some very warm waters of the Gulf Stream and encounters less wind shear.
After that, “Isaias” will move northeast along the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor and become a major rain and wind producer in the DC, Philly and New York City metro regions on Tuesday and Tuesday night. There is the potential for several inches of rain in these areas along with strong sustained winds and potentially damaging wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, and flash flooding. Numerous power outages are on the table in the Mid-Atlantic region during this upcoming event. “Isaias” will pick up speed as it pushes to the north/northeast over the next 24-48 hours reaching the interior sections of northern New England by early Wednesday.
Several inches of rain are possible on Tuesday and Tuesday night in the I-95 corridor as “Isaias” moves to the northeast along a stalled out frontal boundary zone and flash flooding is quite likely in many low-lying areas. Map courtesy NOAA
Details
At 11 AM, “Isaias” was moving north at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and a central pressure of 998 millibars. It wouldn’t take much intensification for “Isaias” to re-gain hurricane (category 1) status and that is a possibility before it makes landfall tonight in the Carolinas – perhaps right near the border region of South and North Carolina. By the way, the last hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina was “Dorian” in early September of 2019 and the last hurricane to make landfall in South Carolina was “Matthew” in early October of 2016.
Sea surface temperatures are very warm in the southwest Atlantic Ocean with some spots over 30°C in the vicinity of “Isaias”. Map courtesy weathermodels.com (Dr. Ryan Maue, Twitter), NOAA
After producing lots of rain and wind in the Carolinas on Monday night, “Isaias” will continue to pick up forward speed and push along a stalled out frontal boundary zone on Tuesday reaching the southeastern part of Virginia early in the day and then to a position over the Delmarva Peninsula/southern New Jersey by late in the day. One of the reasons for concern on Tuesday for the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US is that “Isaias” will only slowly weaken after landfall as it will interact with a very strong jet streak in the upper part of the atmosphere while becoming an “extratropical” storm.
After landfall in the Carolinas, “Isaias” will interact with a very strong jet streak aloft and only slowly weaken on its way along the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
While there can be scattered bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight in the I-95 corridor, more numerous bands will develop by early tomorrow and spread northeastward during the day and continue into tomorrow night. As much as several inches of rain is possible in spots by the time Wednesday morning rolls around. Given the expected excessive rainfall in a relatively short period of time and the already-saturated grounds in some areas, flash flooding is quite likely to develop during this event in many low-lying areas.
Near hurricane-force wind gusts are possible during this event along coastal sections of the Delmarva Peninsula, New Jersey and Long Island (NY). Map courtesy NOAA, Weather Bell Analytics at weatherbell.com
Winds will be a big factor as well on Tuesday in the Mid-Atlantic region with gusts of 50+ mph at inland locations and near hurricane-force strength of 70 mph or so along coastal sections of the Delmarva Peninsula, New Jersey and Long Island, NY. The threat also exists for isolated tornadoes on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the center of “Isaias” moves through at a pretty rapid pace; primarily, in areas along and southeast of Route I-95 (i.e., on the right side of the storm track).
The latest “official” storm track by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is shown here. “Isaias” will accelerate as it moves to the northeast over the next 24-48 hours.
The main weather action will wind down tomorrow evening in the Mid-Atlantic region as “Isaias” pushes northeastward at an accelerated pace and actually reaches interior sections of northern New England by early Wednesday. High pressure will then build into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US later Wednesday bringing back some quiet after the wild weather that is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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