1:30 PM (Tuesday) | *Threat of heavy rainfall as slow-moving cold front grinds to the coast…reinforcing cool shot for the weekend…western states turn hotter and stay dry with enhanced wildfire threat*
Paul Dorian
A second cold front will pass through the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday night/early Friday and usher in a colder-than-normal air mass for the beginning part of October. This chilly air mass will extend from the Northern Plains to the Southeast US. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
A slow-moving cold front will produce rain in the Mid-Atlantic region from later today into early Wednesday and some of the rain will be heavy at times and embedded strong thunderstorms are possible. It’ll turn a little cooler at mid-week, but a second cold front will bring an even cooler air into the eastern states for the upcoming weekend. As the central and eastern states experience significant rainfall and an unfolding colder weather pattern, the western states will get hotter and stay dry and this will enhance the wildfire threat.
Heavy rain is a threat in the I-95 corridor from later today into early Wednesday as a slow-moving cold front grinds its way to the coast. Images courtesy College of DuPage, NOAA
Details
The first of two cold fronts is slowly pressing to the east at mid-day and it will result in some heavy rainfall for the I-95 corridor region from later today into early Wednesday. There can be some strong thunderstorm activity as well included with this slow-moving frontal system as it grinds its way to the east coast. Following the passage of this initial cold front, it’ll turn cooler on Wednesday in the Mid-Atlantic region and the temperatures will stay at relatively cool levels on Thursday as well.
By Thursday night/early Friday, a second cold front will approach the Mid-Atlantic region from the northwest and low pressure may form along the frontal boundary zone. While it is likely that the rainfall associated with the second frontal system will not be as significant as with this initial front, it could end up producing some decent additional rainfall amounts for the area. Following the passage of the second frontal system, it’ll turn even cooler in the Mid-Atlantic region for Friday, Saturday and Sunday with highs likely confined to the 60’s and overnight lows well down in the 40’s. Another storm system may threaten the eastern states on Sunday night and Monday and it be another heavy rain event.
While the eastern seaboard gets a soaking rain in the near-term, the western half of the nation looks rain-free for the next 5 days. The dry and hotter conditions in the western US will enhance the already high chances for wildfires in the early and middle parts of October. 5-day total precipitation forecast map courtesy NOAA/WPC.
At the same time the central and eastern states chill down, the western states will get hotter and stay dry and this will likely result in an increasing wildfire threat in the same areas that have been hit hard with that phenomenon during the past couple of months. In fact, the unfolding weather pattern for early-to-mid October suggests the threat of wildfires will likely stay high in much of the western US.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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