10:40 AM | *Strong cold front arrives this afternoon with showers…possible strong-to-severe storm…near freezing by early tomorrow across much of the Mid-Atlantic…big time warm up later next week*

A large chunk of the nation will experience at or below freezing temperatures early Thursday morning. Map courtesy weathermodels.com (Dr. Ryan Maue), NOAA

Overview

A much colder air mass is closing in on the eastern seaboard at this hour and its arrival this afternoon could spark a strong-to-severe thunderstorm in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with the highest chances along coastal sections of New Jersey and the Delmarva Peninsula.  Strong NW winds will usher in the unseasonably cold air mass later today and tonight and temperatures are likely to bottom out near the freezing mark early Thursday – even in the immediate I-95 corridor.  Numerous records or near records low temperatures were experienced earlier today across the central US and Midwest and this pattern will shift to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US early Thursday.  Looking ahead, a big time warm up is likely in the eastern US later next week which could result in 80+ degrees for the Mid-Atlantic region.

The best chance for severe thunderstorm activity later this afternoon will be along and east of the I-95 corridor. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Details

Temperatures have plunged into the 30’s this morning in central and western Pennsylvania with snow at 10AM in Johnstown and snow mixing in with rain in State College…this unusually cold air mass is on the move to the east and will reach the eastern seaboard by late in the day.  As the surface cold front arrives in the I-95 corridor region this afternoon, there will be occasional showers and perhaps a line of strong-to-severe thunderstorms.  The best chance for a severe thunderstorm will be later in the afternoon across coastal sections of New Jersey and the eastern part of the Delmarva Peninsula. 

Numerous record or near record low temperatures were experienced earlier today across the central US and Midwest and this type of pattern will shift to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US early Thursday. Map courtesy coolex.com, NOAA

Strong NW winds will follow the frontal passage late today/tonight and temperatures will plunge into the 30’s in the overnight hours.  In fact, temperatures are likely to drop to near or even slightly below the freezing mark by early tomorrow – even in the urban areas of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.  These kinds of temperatures early Thursday can have an impact on some sensitive plants and a repeat performance is possible early Friday morning with low temperatures likely again in the low-to-mid 30’s in many spots.  Earlier today, there were numerous record or near record low temperatures from the central US to the Midwest and this may have had an impact on some vegetation/crops…perhaps something we’ll hear about in coming days.  Temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region will modify by Friday afternoon with highs back up into the 60’s and it stays milder this weekend as well although a soaking rainfall is possible from Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The 06Z EPS forecast map of 500 mb height anomalies for early next week features a building ridge of high pressure aloft in the eastern half of the nation. This pattern change is likely to result in a big time warm up for much of the eastern US later next week with 80+ degrees on the table in the Mid-Atlantic region. Map courtesy Weather Bell Analytics, NOAA

Looking ahead, after low pressure brings rain Saturday night and Sunday morning, a chilly air mass will push in for Sunday night and Monday – though not as chilly as the cold blast that reaches us later today.  By the middle of next week, strong high pressure ridging will build into the eastern states and this will result in a big time warm up.  In fact, temperatures of 80+ degrees will likely be on the table for the Mid-Atlantic region by later next week – quite a change from the next 48 hours or so. 

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com

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