11:30 AM | *Strengthening TS “Fred” closing in on Florida Panhandle…tropical moisture to push northward resulting in significant rainfall from Gulf coast to Mid-Atlantic…”Grace” update, "Henri" next?*

Overview

Tropical Storm “Fred” is strengthening as it closes in on the Panhandle region of Florida and it could even reach hurricane status before making landfall this evening.  “Fred” will weaken quickly after landfall in terms of its wind field; however, its tropical moisture field will push northward over the few days resulting in significant rainfall from the Gulf coast to Tennessee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.  “Grace” has weakened (temporarily) to tropical depression status and is likely to take a track much farther to the south of “Fred” as it becomes increasingly influenced by building high pressure over the western Atlantic.  A third system over the Atlantic will tend to meander not too far from Bermuda and it could very well become Tropical Storm “Henri” in the near-term.

An active Atlantic Basin currently with Tropical Storm “Fred”, tropical depression “Grace” and wave #8 which is likely to become “Henri”. Map courtesy NOAA

Details

Tropical Storm “Fred” has strengthened in recent few hours as it heads northward towards the Panhandle region of Florida now with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph or so.  Wind shear has weakened some in the general vicinity of TS “Fred” as high pressure ridging builds overhead and this has allowed for some strengthening as it closing in on western Florida.  After landfall, TS “Fred” will weaken quickly in terms of its wind field, but its tropical moisture will push northward and result in a significant rainfall all the way from the Gulf coast to the Mid-Atlantic over the next few days. 

Significant rainfall associated with “Fred” is likely to extend from the Gulf coast to the Mid-Atlantic over the next few days. Map courtesy NOAA

In the near-term, “Fred” is likely to bring as much as 4-8 inches of rain to Florida’s Panhandle region with isolated maximums of 12 inches in some spots.  As much as 4-8 inches of rain can fall later tonight and Tuesday across portions of Alabama, Georgia and the western Carolinas as tropical moisture pushes to the north.  Significant rain is then possible in the Mid-Atlantic region in the Tuesday night-to-Wednesday night time period as tropical moisture interacts with a frontal system in that part of the eastern US.  Localized flash flooding is going to be a concern with “Fred” all the way from the Gulf coast to the Mid-Atlantic region during the next few days. 

Building high pressure over the western Atlantic is likely to help steer “Grace” to the west in coming days - first towards the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico and then to the northeastern coastal region of Mexico. Map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA

Elsewhere, tropical depression “Grace” is now located to the south of the Caribbean island of Hispaniola and is going to become increasingly influenced by building high pressure over the western Atlantic.  As a result, “Grace” is going to take a track farther to the south compared to “Fred” and is likely to move westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday and then continue westward towards northeastern part of Mexico.  Meanwhile, tropical system #8 is currently located over the Atlantic and it could very well intensify enough to become Tropical Storm “Henri” over the next day or so and likely meander not too far from Bermuda. 

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Peraton
peratonweather.com

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