11:30 AM | *An increasing hurricane threat for Texas/Louisiana coastal region by early next week*
Paul Dorian
Sea surface temperatures are generally at or above 30 degrees C in the northwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico which is plenty warm enough to support a hurricane given the right atmospheric conditions. Map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA
Overview
The Atlantic Basin remains quite active as we push towards the end of August with three systems on the tropical scene, but the one over the Caribbean Sea is of most concern at this time. There are strong signs that this system now officially known as “Invest 99L” can reach hurricane status in coming days and perhaps threaten the Texas and/or Louisiana coastline by the early part of next week.
A gathering tropical storm now over the southern Caribbean Sea threatens the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico in the near-term and then it could threaten the Texas and/or Louisiana coastlines by the early part of next week. Map courtesy NOAA/NESDIS
Details
There is currently a tropical wave out over the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean and a trailing one over the eastern Atlantic, but is the third system which is now over the southern part of the Caribbean Sea that is of most concern. Overall environmental conditions are going to become more favorable for development of this particular tropical wave which is likely to climb to tropical depression status over the next couple of days. Its likely track to the west-northwest over the next few days would result in a passage near or over the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico by the early part of the weekend and then to the western Gulf of Mexico where sea surface temperatures are quite warm for this time of year. Indeed, sea surface temperatures off the coasts of Texas and Louisiana – a feasible destination for this system - are well above-normal for late August and fully supportive of a hurricane or even a “major” hurricane.
Strong upper-level ridging over the eastern part of Canada this weekend will be in a position that is usually favorable for tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico. Map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA
In the upper part of the atmosphere, strong high-pressure ridging will set up over the southeastern part of Canada by later in the weekend and this is usually a favorable position for tropical activity to take place in the Gulf of Mexico or southwestern part of the Atlantic. Support for abnormally higher heights (and pressure) over the southeastern part of Canada come from a teleconnection index known as the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO. When this index is in “negative” territory for an extended period of time as it is likely to be in coming days, the usual upper-air pattern features strong high pressure over places like eastern Canada or Greenland.
A teleconnection index known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be in “negative” territory in coming days and this typically supports the notion of strong high pressure to be situated over eastern Canada or Greenland. Plot courtesy NOAA
The bottom line, while this possible event along the Gulf coast is still several days away, all residents along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines should begin to closely monitor this system as it heads from the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Peraton
peratonweather.com
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